经济学人下载:欧洲汽车制造商 豪车

Europe's carmakers

欧洲汽车制造商

Polishing up

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Cheap cars are not selling, so their makers are betting on expensive ones

在低档车滞销的情况下，制造商们纷纷把宝压到了高档轿车身上

It's shiny, but who will buy it

非常闪耀的一辆车，然而，谁会买呢？

AN ARMY of buffers attends to the cars at motor shows, continually polishing them to a level of otherworldly gleam. The sparkle they are putting on models from Europe's mass-market carmakers at the Paris show, which opened to the public on October 4th, is at odds with the lacklustre state of the automotive market. But it reflects growing, if misguided, optimism among the manufacturers that they can sell more cars for more money.
一大群抛光技师正悉心呵护展览会的参展车辆，以期将眼前的轿车擦得光亮无比。在本月4号对外开放的巴黎欧洲主流汽车车展上，制造商为旗下的车型加入了闪耀的元素，而这样的步调却是与低迷的车市行情迥然不同。但如果没被其误导的话，这也就意味着汽车市场的复苏增长预期正被各大制造商所认可，他们对未来的销量和销售额均持有乐观态度。

The carmakers' cheer is explained by a belief that the worst is over. Sales in Europe tumbled in the 2008 financial crisis, and have fallen every year since. Only 12.4m cars were sold in 2013, nearly 4m fewer than in 2007. But early this year a rebound began, and sales so far this year are up 6%.

制造商们欢呼的理由很简单：他们相信“最艰难的日子已经过去了”。2008年金融危机期间，欧洲的汽车销量大跌，而市场行情自那时起更是年年下降。2013年全年汽车销售总量仅为1240万辆，较2007年下降了约400万辆。但今年早些时候汽车市场呈现出了复苏的态势，而截至现在汽车总销量已经上涨了6%。

Unfortunately, it already seems to be fading. Gloomier analysts predict that after an increase of just 2% for this year as a whole, there may be no growth in 2015. Even if the recovery is stronger, IHS, a research firm, expects that demand will remain well below pre-crisis levels in 2020.

不幸地是，这样的复苏似乎已经处于消退的状态。一些更为悲观的分析师甚至预测，在今年整体的销量取得2%增长的情况下，2015年的市场行情可能会毫无增长。即便是市场复苏的力量增强了，但调查研究公司IHS的预期显示，市场需求在2020年仍会处于远低于金融危机发生前的水平。

This is grim for the firms which lean most heavily on Europe. PSA Peugeot-Citro?of France relies on the continent for almost three-quarters of revenues, though it hopes a recent tie-up with Dongfeng of China will boost sales there. Fiat's merger with Chrysler has provided insulation, but as with Ford and General Motors, Europe is still an open wound. All the mass-market firms lost money in the region last year, with the exception of VW. Its expensive Audi and Porsche brands keep its profits rolling in. And like BMW and Daimler, it has done well in China, whose rich regard fancy German cars a status symbol.

对于市场重心在欧洲市场的公司来说，这无异于一场严冬。虽然法国标致雪铁龙（公司约四分之三的收入来源于欧洲大陆，但它希望近期通过与中国东风公司的合作，能够使其在中国取得销量的激增。菲亚特与克莱斯勒的并购降低了该公司的市场经营风险，但就算菲亚特公司是与福特或通用汽车合并，依然无法在整个低迷的欧洲市场中获利。去年，除了大众汽车以外的所有主流汽车制造商都处于亏损状态。大众汽车的高档品牌奥迪和保时捷使其利润源源不断地流入。就像宝马和戴姆勒公司一样，大众汽车也在中国取得了骄人的成绩。在中国，富人们认为拥有一辆豪华的德国轿车就是身份地位的象征。

Other parts of the world that had helped keep some carmakers going have hit trouble. Recession in Brazil has been bad for Fiat and Renault. Ford's European factories are among those suffering as sales in the big and hitherto profitable Russian market are falling because of Western sanctions over Ukraine. Russian car sales may fall by a third this year, to 2m.

一部分制造商赖以生存的其他地区市场也遭遇到了麻烦。巴西市场的衰退使得菲亚特和雷诺的日子举步维艰。由乌克兰事件而导致的西方制裁，使得规模庞大且一直以来利润丰厚的俄罗斯汽车市场出现销量下滑，而这也使福特的欧洲工厂遭到沉重的打击。今年全年俄罗斯汽车市场的销量可能会下跌三分之一，跌至200万辆。

Even after six years of falling sales, carmakers have not done enough to cut their excess capacity in western Europe. Haroon Hassan of Mitsubishi UFJ, a bank, reckons that together, their assembly lines are turning out just 65% of the 21m cars a year they could make at full tilt. Analysts reckon they need to run at 70-80% just to break even.

即便是遭受了6年的销量下跌，车辆制造商们在削减西欧地区冗余产能方面仍做得不够。三菱东京UFJ银行的Haroon Hassan估计，在最大总产能为每年2100万辆的情况下，目前制造商们的装配生产线仅开动了65%。而据分析师们的估算，各大车厂需要使用70%至80%的产能，才能维持收支平衡。

GM and Ford have restructured the most, closing a couple of plants each. But governments and unions have prevented the scale of job cuts that might make a difference. PSA's closure of a car-assembly plant at Aulnay in 2013 was the first in France for 20 years. Workers at PSA and Renault have agreed to be more flexible, but only in return for a promise that no more factories will shut.

通用汽车与福特是两家进行了产能重组最多的公司，他们各自都关闭了一些工厂。但政府和工会已经对阻止了他们的裁员计划，仅允许其轻微地进行调整，因而对大局来说影响不大。在2013年，标志雪铁龙关闭了其位于奥尔奈的车辆装配厂，而这在20年以来的法国纯属首次。标致雪铁龙和雷诺的工人已经跟资方就弹性工作时间的方案达成一致，但后者却要给出“不再关闭旗下工厂”的保证。

Instead of making more cuts, the mass-market carmakers are aspiring to boost their volumes and margins with new, premium-priced models. At the Paris show, PSA unveiled the latest designs for its upmarket DS range. Fiat wants its underused Italian plants to turn out Jeeps, Alfa Romeos and Maseratis. Ford's Vignale and Renault's Initiale Paris brands offer high-specification versions of lowlier cars.
 

相对于进一步削减产能来说，主流汽车制造商更渴望刺激新型、高价轿车的销量，以获得更多利润。在巴黎车展上，标致雪铁龙发布了旗下最新型的车款，而该车款正是高档车型DS系列的成员之一。菲亚特公司则希望将未充分运作的意大利工厂用以生产Jeeps、Alfa Romeos和Maseratis这三个高端品牌车辆。

They are pushing into a market that is already crowded. The upmarket German brands, and Jaguar Land Rover of Britain, have broadened their ranges to include more petite but pricey models. The big Japanese carmakers are relaunching their luxury marques. Moving upmarket is a long and expensive business for companies that do not have time or money to spare. And motorists do not value the mass-market companies' own brands enough to want to pay for more than basic models, no matter much polish is applied.

他们正努力挤入一个本来就拥挤无比的市场。高端市场的德系品牌，以及英国的捷豹路虎（Jaguar Land Rover），都已经拓展了其品牌范围，其中涵盖了更为娇小但价格不菲的车型。日本大型汽车制造商也计划着重新发布自己旗下的奢华品牌。走向高端市场这一战略，对于没有时间没有闲钱的公司来说，意味着一项极为漫长和代价很高的任务。无论将车身打磨得多闪亮，司机们都不认为这些主流汽车公司的自有品牌，能够让自己掏出高于基本车款价格的钱。