经济学人下载:玻利维亚替代计划隐隐作痛

Bello
贝略

The travails of ALBA
玻利维亚替代计划隐隐作痛

The more successful of Latin America's populists have become more pragmatic
拉美民粹者身居上游，更为脚踏实地

ON THE night of October 12th, after comfortably winning a third term as the president of Bolivia, Evo Morales was in full rhetorical flow. Having dedicated his victory to Cuba's Fidel Castro and the late Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, he went on: “How much longer will we continue to be subjected to the North American empire or the capitalist system? This triumph is a triumph for anti-imperialists and anti-colonialists.”
10月12日晚玻利维亚总统连任三届的胜利手到擒来后，埃沃·莫拉莱斯大放厥词，他将他的光荣归功于古巴的卡斯特罗及委内瑞拉上届总统查韦斯，他称，我们受北美帝国和资本主义制度的束缚之日还有多久，我们的胜利是反帝国主义和殖民化的胜利。

So far, so reminiscent of 2007. That was when Chavez's anti-yanqui continental alliance, known as the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), hit its zenith. It had gained two new recruits with the election of Rafael Correa in Ecuador and of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. Having won a new term by a 26-point margin, Chavez pledged himself to “21st-century socialism”. A year earlier Mr Morales, a socialist coca-growers' leader of Amerindian descent, had won Bolivia's presidency proclaiming that he was “the United States's worst nightmare”. In Argentina the election in 2007 of Cristina Fernandez, an ALBA fellow-traveller, prolonged the regime of her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner.
回想2007年，当时正值查韦斯的反美联盟美洲玻利维亚替代计划热火朝天，拉斐尔和丹尼尔在尼加拉瓜成功当选后，他们便又多了两名战友，查韦斯以领先26个百分点的成绩开启新的任期，他宣称要音量21世纪的社会主义，就在一年前，美洲印第安人莫拉莱斯以社会主义者，古柯种植领袖的身份当选玻利瓦尔的总统，称它将是美国最恐怖的噩梦，2007年在阿根廷，美洲玻利维亚计划成员克里斯蒂娜的成功当选延续了她丈夫萨洛德的政权。

Analysts lumped these leaders together as radical populists, for want of a better term. Yet despite a shared bent for autocracy, there were always differences among them, not least because of their countries' differing circumstances. Seven years on, their fates are distinct. In Venezuela Chavez bequeathed a toxic economic legacy to his lacklustre successor, Nicolas Maduro. A country that claims the world's biggest oil reserves has been so badly mismanaged that it is scraping around for dollars. As for Ms Fernandez, having plunged Argentina into stagflation, she is down and almost out, despite her last-gasp effort to turn her argument over debt with a New York court into a nationalist epic.
分析者将这些领导人归结为激进的民粹主义者，期望实现更好的领导，即使他们都推行专制，但之间也有所不同，其中的原因也不仅仅在于不同国家的具体国情，7年之后，他们的命运也有所不同，在委内瑞拉，查韦斯将有毒经济财富的烂摊子丢给老气横秋的继任者，这个国家声称赋予世界上最大的石油储备，国内的管理却混乱不堪，落得到处借钱的下场，克里斯蒂娜将该国推入了滞胀的深渊，虽然她竭力在纽约法庭的争论中赢得主动，尽展民族主义气节，却仍不得不下台，差点退出政坛。

Their difficulties are in sharp contrast with Mr Morales's continuing popularity. True, he has been in power for a shorter period. But his success has recently owed less to “anti-capitalism” and much more to his accommodation with economic orthodoxy and local capitalists. After a turbulent early period when he pushed through a new constitution, quashed the opposition and nationalised foreign-owned oil and gas producers and utilities, he has presided over several years of political stability and economic growth. And he has made his peace with private business.
这张窘境与莫拉莱斯的扶摇直上形成了鲜明的对比，不错，他当政的时间确实是短，但他的成功很大程度上是得益于他迎合经济正统学说和本地资本家的口味，受反资本主义的之风影响较小，在经过了他早先推出新宪法时的动荡之后，他横扫反对者，将外国所有的石油天然气生产设备国有化，在他的7年任期内，全国政治稳定，经济增长，他和私有企业也是关系融洽。

The ALBA presidents all claim to be leading durable “revolutions”, not just any old government. In practice, all of them (save Mr Ortega) built their popularity on recycling a huge increase in rents from the commodity boom into subsidies for the poor and expanded social provision. But Mr Morales has been much less wasteful than Chavez and the Kirchners, having run a fiscal surplus every year since 2005.
所有ALBA的领导人都宣称要持续推陈出新，而不是墨守成规，事实上，他们所有人都因为将由商品经济发展造成的房屋租金上涨，扭转为对穷人补助的增加和社会福利的完善而饱受欢，但与萨洛德和查韦斯相比，莫拉莱斯铺张现象更少，自从2005年全国就一直呈财政盈余的景象。

Mr Correa, like Mr Morales, is becoming more pragmatic. He has invested his oil windfall in roads, schools and hospitals. He recently negotiated a trade agreement with the European Union and has restored normal ties with the IMF. Last month he watered down a new banking law under which the state was to dictate the destination of private bank loans. As for Mr Ortega, who has long been chummy with private businessmen, his espousal of a quixotic, Chinese-backed and environmentally damaging scheme for a trans-Isthmian canal looks like a search for elusive rents to sustain his family's grip on power.
克里拉和莫拉莱斯一样越来越务实，他已经将石油收入投入到道路，学校和医院的建设中，最近，他和欧盟协商达成了贸易协定，也实现了与IMF之间的关系重新走上正常化，上个月，他取缔了一项新的法律，该法律规定私有银行的贷款将来自于国家，而对于与私人企业一直交情不浅的奥尔加来说，他最近的一项空想式的跨地峡计划似乎也旨在保障他家族大权的财力来源，这个破坏环境的计划也在私有部门和中国的支持下进行的。

Mr Morales and Mr Correa, who won re-election last year, may be riding high now. But there are clouds on the horizon for their “revolutions”, too. Despite the rhetoric, these do not include the United States: Barack Obama's response to ALBA has been to yawn. Their first problem is the end of the commodity boom. Three-quarters of Bolivia's exports are of natural gas or minerals, whose prices are falling. Ecuador invests much more than Bolivia. Mr Correa has boosted non-oil exports. He has done more than Mr Morales to try to diversify his country's economy, with so far uncertain results. But his “citizens' revolution” is showing signs of financial strain. Ecuador is heading for a fiscal deficit of up to 7% of GDP this year. And the oil price is crashing.
莫拉莱斯和去年再次当选的克里拉现在名声大噪，但他们和明德雄心壮志上也笼罩着一些徐徐成形的阴云，即使他们大放阙词，但美国总统奥巴马对他们一直没多大兴趣，他们的第一个问题是商品经济繁荣的结束，玻利维亚出口的四分之三都是天然气和矿石，而他们的价格却在持续下降，厄瓜多尔的驼子远超玻利维亚，克里拉已经增加了非石油的进口，他为促进经济多元化的努力远胜于莫拉莱斯，但至今的结果仍不明朗，他的公民革命却呈现出经济紧缩的迹象，厄瓜多尔几年财政赤字在GDP中占到了7%，石油价格仍在下降。