经济学人下载:日本汽车制造商 活力无穷

Japanese carmakers
日本汽车制造商

Lots of oomph
活力无穷

Japan's small-car firms are defying the industry's get-big-or-die imperative
日本的小厂商们正在与“要么大，要么死”这一条金科玉律抗争

ONE of the conundrums of the car business is that five smaller Japanese firms continue to prosper alongside three giants, Toyota, Nissan and Honda. In theory, those in the second division—Mazda, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Subaru—should long ago have merged with rivals at home or abroad, or fallen by the wayside. Daihatsu is already controlled by Toyota, which has a 51% stake in the firm. They all sell 1m-2m vehicles a year. Sergio Marchionne, boss of Fiat Chrysler, once said that 6m was the minimum required for carmakers to have a hope of turning a profit.
目前，汽车产业里有着这样一个费解的情况：在三大巨头（丰田Toyota、日产Nissan和本田Honda）的身旁，五家较小的日本公司能够持续地取得出色业绩。理论上来说，这些第二梯队成员（马自达Mazda、三菱Mitsubishi、铃木Suzuki和斯巴鲁Subaru）应该早已被国内或国外的对手所兼并，或是退出历史长河。拥有大发汽车（Daihatsu）51%股权的丰田汽车公司，早已控制了前者的生产经营。以上所提到的五家较小的制造商，他们每年各自约卖出100万至200万辆汽车。而菲亚特克莱斯勒（Fiat Chrysler）的老板Sergio Marchionne曾表示，对于汽车制造商来说，“600万辆”是想要获得盈利所必须达到的最低销售总额。

The second-tier firms seem more determined than ever to disprove the notion that global scale and huge volumes are indispensable. Suzuki is a relative minnow with a strong presence in only one big market outside Japan—India. But not long ago it withdrew from an alliance with Germany's Volkswagen (VW), which could have helped it sell small and cheap vehicles in developed markets overseas.
这些第二梯队公司似乎比以往任何时候都更有决心，去反驳这样一个观点：业务规模和巨量销售额都是不可或缺的。除去日本本土市场以外，铃木汽车只在印度取得了耀眼的成绩，相比于其他制造商来说十分不起眼。但就在不久之前，该公司退出了与德国大众汽车（Volkswagen (VW)）所结成的商业联盟，而后者本应该能帮助铃木汽车进入海外发达国家市场，以销售旗下的小型廉价车辆。

Mazda, an even smaller firm, gladly parted ways with Ford. The American carmaker began to wind down its stake in 2008 to raise cash and avoid bankruptcy. The two firms had worked together since 1979. Subaru, part of Fuji Heavy Industries, a conglomerate, reportedly chafes at the 16.5% stake that Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, holds in it. One obvious solution for the sub-scale firms—mergers with the biggest three—seems a distant prospect.
马自达汽车，作为一家与铃木相比规模更小的公司，欣然地脱离了福特汽车（Ford）的怀抱。为了筹措现金和避免破产，福特汽车公司在2008年开始逐步抛售所拥有的马自达汽车股份。这两家公司从1979年开始就成为了合作伙伴。而与此同时据报道称，作为富士重工（Fuji Heavy Industries）集团的一份子，斯巴鲁汽车正对丰田公司（全球最大的制造商）所拥有的该公司16.5%的股份表示不满。对于与三大巨头联合的小规模制造商来说，那个“显而易见”的脱困方案，现在反倒成了一份“遥远的期待”。

It helps that all are making generous profits after years of losses. A weaker currency means they are well-nigh printing money, notes Max Warburton of Sanford C. Bernstein, an equity-research firm. Subaru and Mazda, the biggest exporters among the five, are enjoying record sales in North America. Subaru now outsells VW there. The Japanese small-fry are also more profitable than most firms in the industry.
在长年累月的亏损期过后，目前这些制造商正赚着十分可观的利润，而这确实能让他们缓一口气。来自证券分析公司斯坦福·伯恩斯坦（Sanford C. Bernstein）的Max Warburton表示，日元的走弱差不多等同于日本车商正全力发动马达印制钞票。斯巴鲁和马自达是五家公司里出口贸易量最大的两家，他们在北美市场的销售量取得了纪录新高。现在斯巴鲁在当地的销量还超过了德国大众。同时，这些日本第二梯队成员的盈利状况要比产业中大多数公司要好得多。

That may not last. A succession of lean years means the smaller firms lack cash to invest heavily in new technology. But they are finding smart ways to turn weaknesses into strengths. The industry admires Mazda's decision some years ago not to develop costly hybrid or fully electric powertrains in favour of pioneering its “SkyActiv” technology, which greatly improves the efficiency of petrol and diesel engines.
这些“好日子”或许不能持续太久。连续的市场不景气，意味着较小的公司会缺乏现金对新技术的研发进行大量投资。但他们找到了一条聪明的路，能够将缺点转化成优点。目前，业界对马自达数年前所做出的决定倍加推崇。马自达公司没有选择去研发成本高昂的混合动力或纯电动系统，而是全力开发已有的“创驰蓝天（SkyActiv）”技术。这一技术能够极大地提高汽油机和柴油机的工作效率。

SkyActiv is typically pragmatic engineering from the Japanese, and just what the market wants now, says Mr Warburton. In the coming years, however, meeting tighter emissions standards will require more capital spending. It may also be difficult for the smaller firms to invest in technologies that support autonomous driving, should it prove popular.
Warburton先生表示，“创驰蓝天”技术是来自日本“务实”工程的典范，这正是目前市场所需要的东西。然而，为了在未来数年应对日渐严苛的废气排放标准，加大研发资本的投入势在必行。与此同时，对于较小的制造商而言，想要投资于能够支持自动驾驶系统的车辆也是一件困难的事情，而自动驾驶系统应该会成为十分受欢迎的技术之一。

Another explanation for the small firms' endurance is the tacit support of Japan's government. In the case of Suzuki, Mitsubishi and Daihatsu this support is visible in the form of longstanding tax breaks to miniature “kei” cars. Much loved by women and the old, the tiny cars and trucks now account for around two-fifths of new-vehicle sales in Japan. Nissan and Honda manufacture kei cars, but the three smaller makers rely on them more.
对于小公司能够坚持至今的另一种解释，就是他们接受了来自日本政府的隐性支持。就铃木、三菱和大发三家厂商来说，政府的支持是摆在台面的，他们都在微型“轻型”车的生产销售方面享受到了长期的税收减免优惠。“轻型”车受到广大女性群体和长者们的欢迎，目前这些迷你轿车和迷你货车的销售量已经占了日本新车市场的五分之二。虽然日产和本田也在生产“轻型”车，但那较小的三家制造商要比两大巨头更为依赖“轻型”车。

The government now seems to have heeded the warnings of the largest carmakers, that making kei cars diverts attention and funds from the development of models with export potential. A decision earlier this year to raise taxes on the category bodes ill for their manufacturers. While Subaru and Mazda are successful outside Japan, and Suzuki is envied for making big profits selling small cars, the weakest of the second tier may soon face fresh difficulties.
现在，日本政府似乎已经注意到了汽车巨头们的警告，后者认为大力制造“轻型”车，会减少在其他具有出口潜力车型的开发方面所需的精力和资金投入。今年早些时候日本政府决定提高“轻型”车的税率，这也预示着生产该车型的厂商前景趋于黯淡。当斯巴鲁和马自达在海外市场大获成功之时，铃木汽车旗下“轻型”车的巨额利润也同样令人眼红。然而，这第二梯队里最弱的一家制造商或许马上就要面临新的困难。

The underlying problem faced by all Japan's carmakers is a declining and largely uNPRofitable home market, says John Harris, a consultant. Yet for Mitsubishi, probably the weakest of the five, the problem is eased by support from the huge industrial group it belongs to and Daihatsu will continue to enjoy Toyota's protection. With this level of help it is unsurprising that none of the small carmakers has yet run off the road.
咨询师约翰·哈里斯（John Harris）表示，全日本的汽车制造商都有着一个共同的潜在问题，那就是持续萎缩和基本上无利可图的国内市场。然而，就三菱汽车而言，这家几乎是五家公司实力最弱的成员，一直从自己所属的巨型集团当中得到支持。大发汽车也将持续地受到丰田的保护。在这种程度的帮助之下，我们就不难预测到，这批小型制造商都会“活得好好的”。