经济学人下载:波兰政府 能力的体现

Poland's government
波兰政府

Flashes of competence
能力的体现

Poland's new prime minister is matter-of-fact to a fault
波兰新总理坦然面对困难

Ewa Kopacz
埃娃·科帕奇

AS A chain-smoking doctor, Ewa Kopacz clearly has a certain appetite for personal risk. In her case, it also seems to exhaust any appetite for risk. But as she prepares to take over as prime minister of Poland, following Donald Tusk's elevation to the presidency of the European Council, her central message is one of safety. Her main promise to voters is that she will not make any radical changes before next year's parliamentary elections.
作为一个嗜烟的医生，埃娃·科帕奇对个人风险有某种嗜好。对她来说，风险似乎会让她筋疲力竭。在唐纳德·图斯克接任了在欧盟委员会的主席之后，科帕奇准备接任波兰总理，其思想核心之一是安全。她对支持者的主要承诺是，在明年议会大选到来之前不做任何根本性的改变。

In foreign policy that means dropping the confrontational approach to Russia favoured by Mr Tusk and Radek Sikorski, his foreign minister. In domestic policy Ms Kopacz promises more nursery schools, more old-people's homes, help for students wanting to study abroad and measures to reduce youth unemployment.
波兰外交政策上，图斯克和前外交部长拉德克·斯考斯基更赞成减少与俄罗斯的对抗。在国内政策上，科帕奇允诺建立更多的幼儿学校，更多的养老院，帮助那些想要出国学习的孩子并且调控降低青年失业率。

“I don't suspect she has any vision,” says Jacek Zakowski, a Polish journalist. Ms Kopacz is a pragmatic centrist, he says, with perhaps a bit more of a natural sensitivity than Mr Tusk.
“我从不怀疑她是个有眼力的人”，波兰记者亚瑟·扎克沃斯基说，“科帕奇是一个很实际的中立派议员，同时还比图斯克多了一些天然的敏感性。”

Although she sets out to present a motherly public persona, Ms Kopacz occasionally displays flashes of Thatcherite steel. When she was health minister in 2009, she refused to be browbeaten into mandating an untested swine-flu vaccine, despite fears of a global epidemic. After the crash of a government plane in 2010 in Russia, which killed 96 people, including Poland's president, Ms Kopacz went to Moscow to take part in the stomach-churning work of identifying the dead.
即使她展现出一种慈母般的公众形象，科帕奇偶尔会展示出撒切尔光环一般的闪光点。当她在2009年担任卫生部大臣的时候，尽管当时是全球恐慌状态，她也拒绝被迫批准未经检疫的流感疫苗。2010年政府飞机在俄罗斯坠毁，包括当时的波兰总统在内共有96人丧生，科帕奇前往莫斯科去参加那令人反胃的辨认尸体工作。

Ms Kopacz has promised similar toughness during this week's European Union talks on the reduction of carbon emissions, resisted by Poland, which relies heavily on coal for its power. She has promised her public cheap electricity prices and even threatened to veto the climate negotiations if they do not go her way.
在这周关于减少二氧化碳排放量的欧盟会议上，科帕奇表现出了相同的韧性，因为波兰的传统用煤来获取能量。她也承诺了廉价的公共电力价格，如果不按照她的思路，她甚至威胁否决能源谈判。

The new prime minister has done a good job of seizing control of the ruling Civic Platform party (PO). Some feared the party was about to destroy itself. But Ms Kopacz has carried along her biggest rivals, including Grzegorz Schetyna, who is now foreign minister, and Cezary Grabarczyk, who took the justice portfolio. As a result, PO is firmly under her control.
新总理在掌握对公民纲领党的规划控制方面已经做得很好了。一些人依然担心这个党派会自毁前程。但科帕奇已经说服了她最大的对手，新的外交大臣格热戈日·谢蒂纳，以及公平证券投资的赛扎里·格拉巴尔奇克。因此，公民纲领当最终落入她的掌控之中。

Jacek Rostowski, the former finance minister, on the other hand, has been sidelined by Ms Kopacz, who refused to make him chief of her team of economic advisers. Mr Sikorski was kicked upstairs to be speaker of parliament, but he is already in trouble with the new prime minister. She berated him this week after he was forced to make a humiliating retreat, first telling an American political-news website that Vladimir Putin had suggested to Mr Tusk that Poland and Russia carve up Ukraine between them. He later admitted that Mr Tusk had not met one-on-one with Mr Putin during his trip in February 2008 to Moscow. “My memory failed me,” he said.
另一方面，前任财长亚瑟·罗斯托斯基一直被科帕奇边缘化，科帕奇拒绝让他担任她的经纪团队顾问。斯考斯基被“踢”上了议会发言人的位置，但他也与新总统产生了隔阂。这周，在斯考斯基被迫做出的羞耻的退避，并首次向一家美国政治新闻网站透露，普京曾建议图斯克，让波兰与俄罗斯一起瓜分乌克兰位于他们中间的部分之后，遭到了科帕奇的严厉指责。他晚些时候承认，在2008年2月访问莫斯科市没有与普京进行单独会面，“我的记忆害了我”，他说。

Poles seem to be taking to Ms Kopacz. They had grown tired of Mr Tusk who came to power in 2007. Ms Kopacz's early flashes of competence have easily surpassed the low bar set for her. A new poll shows PO at 34% compared with 30% for its main rival, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS). (PO was trailing PiS in polls in the last year of the Tusk government.)
波兰人似乎接受了科帕奇，自2007年图斯克执政以来他们已经渐感疲惫。科帕奇早期能力的体现已经远远超过了对她设立的最低标准。一项新的民意调查显示，公民纲领党拥有34%的支持率，而它的主要对手右翼法律公正党只有30%。（在去年图斯克政府的民调中公民纲领党的支持率位居法律公正党之后）

Ms Kopacz will lead her party into local elections in November before the national elections next year. Party activists have become more optimistic about PO's chances of winning both. If Ms Kopacz is still prime minister in 2016, she will need to define some form of a vision for Poland. “Will it be a deregulation agenda or a lightly social one? I don't know,” says Ryszard Petru, president of the Association of Polish Economists; “there are a lot of questions and not many answers.”
科帕奇将会在明年的国家大选之前的11月份当地选举中领导她的政党。入党积极分子更加看好公民纲领党这个双赢的机会。如果科帕奇在2016年继任总理，她将要为波兰确定未来发展形势。“这将会变成违规议程还是轻松地社会问题，我不得而知。”波兰经济学家联合会的理夏德·彼特鲁说，“这里有许多问题，但是却没有许多答案。”