经济学人下载:莱克星顿 移民的数字游戏

Lexington
莱克星顿

The immigrant numbers game
移民的数字游戏

Why Barack Obama's partial amnesty won't be reversed
为什么奥巴马的局部赦令不会被逆转？

SOMETIMES the hardest questions come from friendly crowds. Barack Obama on December 9th made a foray into the heartland to promote his plan to shield millions of undocumented migrants from deportation. He chose to speak inNashville, a once-sleepy (if tuneful) city that has seen its foreign-born population roughly double in a decade. That reflects a broad trend: millions of migrants, most of them Hispanic, have moved to the South and Midwest in recent years, flocking to small towns and rural counties that last saw hefty in-migration in the days of crinolines, carpet-bags and spats.
有时候，最艰难的问题来自于热情的围观人群。12月9日，奥巴马向腹地进军，向庇护数百万的非法移民免遭驱逐的计划又迈进了一步。他选择在纳什维尔展开演讲。说得好听点，它是个一度沉睡的城市，它见证了其外国人口在十年间翻番的事实。这反映出了这样一个普遍趋势：近年来，数以百万计的移民搬到美国南部和中西部地区，涌入小城镇和农村县城，在充满衬布裙、旅行袋和争吵的日子里最后一次见证了这场大迁徙，其中大部分人是拉美裔。

After a thoughtful speech defending immigration (“It keeps us young, and it keeps us invigorated,” he said), Mr Obama took questions.Nashville's Hispanics love you, began his first questioner. Then came a tougher query. If the next president scraps the new executive action, will those who use it to seek temporary work and residency papers be first in line for deportation? Mr Obama's answer, simplified, was: there's safety in numbers.
这场经过深思熟虑的演讲保卫了移民，奥巴马说：“这让我们永葆青春，也让我们保持活力”。演讲过后，奥巴马回答了提问。第一个提问以“纳什维尔的拉美裔人民爱你”作为开场白，随后便提出强硬的质疑：如果下一任总统签署了新的行政方案，那么，那些靠它寻找临时工作和居住证的人会首当其冲的成为被驱逐的对象吗？奥巴马对此的回应很简单：人多总是不会错。

A permanent immigration law passed by Congress would be much better, the president said—but even temporary papers should be politically hard to reverse. He added an interesting caveat, though. Local governments, churches and community groups need to sign up more than “just a few people in a few pockets”. Mr Obama's answer is revealing. Republicans inWashington,DCmay be enraged at being side-stepped by Mr Obama, and seem set to stall any congressional action on immigration until he is out of office in 2017. But for all that, the president is wagering that the country at large realises that something must be done to regularise a migrant population that they see all around them, at school gates in conservative small towns, cheering on youth soccer teams in suburban parks, and filling hard, low-paid jobs in states of every ideological hue.
奥巴马说，如果国会通过了永久移民法案则会更好，但即使是临时法案在政治上也很难逆转。尽管他又加了个有趣的警告。当地政府、教会和社区团体需要注册的不是“几个地方的几个人”。奥巴马的回答很有启示。华盛顿特区的共和党人可能对奥巴马的这种避开他们的举动感到愤怒，或推迟国会一切有关移民人口的行动，直到他2017年离任。但尽管如此，奥巴马也是赌，赌整个美国意识到了国家必须采取行动来规范移民。这些移民在美国人的生活里无处不在，他们站在保守小镇上学校的大门口，为郊区公园里的青年足球队而欢呼，并且填满了不同意识形态州内的又累又不赚钱的工作。

Go back just a few years, and the idea that migrants might find safety by showing their strength would have sounded risible.Nashvilleis a laid-back place: a tourist-friendly Democratic-voting dot in the middle of the conservative Bible Belt. Even so, its calm was tested when migrants began arriving in large numbers a generation ago, swelling a once-titchy foreign population centred on Kurdish refugees and Japanese car executives. City- and state-level politicians vied to restrict migrant access to public services. They tried to use everyone from police to schools to track unlawful residents, speeding their deportation. There were calls to “demagnetise”Tennesseeas a. In 2009 a referendum was held on makingNashville“English-only”, which would have barred the city from offering foreign-language information, services or even interpreters (it was voted down).
往回倒退几年，认为移民可以通过展示自己的实力来寻求安全的想法是很可笑的。纳什维尔室友悠闲之地：这个保守的圣经地带内部有一个对游客友好的民主投票点。即便如此，在上代人那个时期，移民开始大量涌入时，它的平静受到考验，曾经极少的主要是库尔德难民和日本汽车公司高管的外国人口，在上一代开始膨胀。市级和州级的政客竞相出台限制移民获得公共服务的政策。他们试图动用从警察局到学校里的所有人来追踪非法居住者并立即驱逐出境。有人呼吁把“让田纳西州消磁”作为行动目的。2009年的一场公民投票决定是否禁止在城内提供有关外语的信息、服务和外语翻译者，使纳什维尔成为了“说英语者”的专属地，但反对声占了大多数。

Activists remember a dark period. In 2008 the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition counted 65 anti-immigrant bills proposed in the state legislature. Migrants recall fear, too. Karla Ruiz, a Mexican caterer, remembers driving her young (American-born) daughter in terror that even a burned-out brake light might trigger a police stop and immigration check leading to her deportation. Karl Dean, a Democrat who has beenNashville's mayor since 2007, admits to a period when Latinos “felt they couldn't engage with the police or city government”.
活动家们记得这样一个黑暗时期。2008年，田纳西州移民难民权力联盟细数出州议会出台的65个反移民法案。移民对此的回忆也充满恐惧。一家名为卡拉鲁伊斯的墨西哥餐厅的老板还记得，她开车载着她在美国出生的小女儿时的恐怖，就连一个被烧毁的刹车灯都可能引发警察的查停和移民检查，继而将她驱逐出境。自2007年起担任纳什维尔市市长的民主党人卡尔·迪安（Karl Dean），承认了这个让拉丁美洲人“觉得他们不能与警察或市政府接触”的时期。

Yet that period from 2009-11 now looks like a high-water mark for nativism. Local firms campaigned hard againstNashville's English-only proposal: with a global brand,Nashvillecannot be “narrow” in its thinking, explains Ralph Schulz, president of the chamber of commerce. This year the Republican governor, Bill Haslam, has declined to join 17 other states in suing Mr Obama over his executive action. The governor is no liberal squish: he just has other priorities, starting with inward investment and upping the number of Tennesseans who go to college.
然而，2009至2011年这段时期，在现在看来就像排外主义达到了高潮。当地企业激烈反对这个纳什维尔“只说英语”的提案。商会主席拉尔夫·舒尔茨（Ralph Schulz）对此解释道：作为一个全球性的品牌，纳什维尔不能用“狭隘”的观念来思考问题。今年，共和党州长比尔·哈斯拉姆（Bill Haslam）拒绝加入其他的17个州“对奥巴马的行政行为提起诉讼”这一行动。但他并不是高喊自由的人：他只是有其他更为优先处理的事情，首要的就是吸引外来投资和提高田纳西州上大学人的数量。

Change can even be detected in the state legislature, where Republicans hold crushing, three-to-one super-majorities in both houses. The flow of kick-'em-out bills slowed in 2012 and 2013. In 2014 a Republican state senator fromChattanooga, Todd Gardenhire, easily passed a law clarifying thatTennessee's public universities can admit American-born children of undocumented parents at the same discounted rate as other local residents. He could not pass a more ambitious bill, offering in-state tuition rates to kids who came illegally as children and who do well at school, but Mr Gardenhire vows to try again. In the past five years some 18,000 Hispanic families have headed to his district, he reports, many after neighbouringAlabamaandGeorgiapassed “draconian” laws. Yes, they arrived illegally, but that is no reason to “punish kids”, argues the senator. “They are here, and they are trying to do their best.” To date, lots of his colleagues are “afraid” of challenges from the right in party primaries. But, hesays, they know that educating youngsters makes “economic sense”.
甚至州立法院中都能察觉到这种改变，这里是共和党人的天下，他们在参众两院都以3:1的比例占据着绝对多数的席位。主张“把他们踢出去”的法案洪流在2012和2013年放缓。2014年，一位来自查塔努加名为托德·佳德海尔（Todd Gardenhire）的共和党州参议员轻松地通过了一项法律，明确了田纳西州的公立大学能够承认那些出生于美国但其父母没有合法文件的孩子，与当地居民享受同样的折扣率。而通过一个更为激进的法案，即向非法来到美国但在学校表现很好的孩子们提供本州人享受的学费，看起来不太可能。但他发誓，他还要再试一次。他说，在过去的五年中，有1.8万的拉美裔家庭搬来他所在的地区，其中许多是在毗邻的阿拉巴马和乔治亚通过了“严格”法律后才搬来的。这位参议员说：“我们承认，他们是非法移民，但我们没有理由去惩罚孩子。他们已经来了，并且他们正在努力去做最好的自己。”时至今日，他许多的同事都“害怕”在党内初选中受到右翼的挑战。但是他说，他们也知道，青年人的教育具有经济意义。

Welcome to Nashville
欢迎来到纳什维尔

City politicians, school officials and activists talk of a tipping point. With one-in-eightNashvilleresidents now foreign-born, and one-in-three local children living in a bilingual or non-English household, the city cannot simply wish newcomers away. Ms Ruiz reports that American friends may disapprove of Mr Obama's executive action, but they are happy for her that it will secure her legal papers. Mayor Dean goes further, drawing on the age-old traditions of American civic boosterism. Thanks to its ethnic diversity, “Nashvilleis a much more interesting city,” he says, with a “buzz” and an “energy” that bodes well for the future. In a highly mobile country, if people pickNashville, that is “the highest compliment they can pay,” he adds.
市内政客、学校官员和活动家们都谈及转折点。如今，每八个纳什维尔居民就有一个生于国外，每三个当地儿童中就有一个生活在双语或非英语家庭。纳什维尔不能简单的让新来者离开。鲁伊斯（Ruiz）称，她的美国朋友们可能不同意奥巴马的行政行为，但是他们都为她感到高兴，因为这确保了她的法律身份。迪安（Dean）市长则更进一步，借鉴了美国民众热心支持的古老传统。他说，多亏了民族的多样性，“纳什维尔成了一座更加有趣的城市”，这种嗡嗡的吵闹声和移民带来的能量在预示着美好的未来。他还补充道，在一个高度流动化的国家，如果人们选择了纳什维尔，那会是“民众能够给予的最高赞美“。

That is a very American statement. It puts timid, grudging politicians in other rich countries to shame. Mr Obama has taken a gamble that the nationwide spread of migrants helps the cause of immigration reform more than it harms it.Tennessee's example suggests he might be right.
这是个很美国式的表态。它让其他发达国家里胆小又不情愿的政客感到羞愧。奥巴马下了赌注：移民在全国范围内的扩张，开始有助于而不再有害于移民事业的改革。田纳西州的例子表明，他也许是对的。