经济学人下载:尼加拉瓜运河 挖掘真相

Nicaragua's canal
尼加拉瓜运河

Digging for truth
挖掘真相

Chinese construction is due to start—but of what?
这个中国建设的工程是为了什么而动工。

ON DECEMBER 22nd an odd couple—Nicaragua's left-wing government and a Chinese-born telecoms magnate—say they will begin the realisation of a dream that has captivated Nicaraguans for generations: the construction of an inter-oceanic canal to rival Panama's. According to Manuel Coronel, an octogenarian who runs the canal authority, their intentions are now beyond dispute. “When the bride and groom set a date, you know it's serious,” he says.
12月22日，尼加拉瓜左翼与中国电信巨头这对神奇的组合宣布他们将会实现尼加拉瓜几代人的梦想，那就是建造一条可以与巴拿马运河相匹敌的通洋运河。运河权威部门的元老，Manuel Coronel表示他们的计划是无可争议的，“就像新郎和新娘约会一样，这是一件天经地义的事。”

But ask Mr Coronel just where construction will begin and who will pay for it, and he has no answers. Neither does HKND, the Hong Kong-based company run by Wang Jing, which is to build the $50 billion waterway. The project has been shrouded in secrecy since Nicaragua's National Assembly awarded a 50-year concession to HKND in 2013. No feasibility study, environmental-impact report, business case or financing plan has yet been released. Instead come platitudes from the Sandinista government of Daniel Ortega about how it will bring a jobs bonanza and end poverty.
但问到工程地点以及资金来源时，Coronel不能给出答案。HKND也没法给出答案。这家由王靖经营的香港公司将建价值500亿美金的水路。自从13年尼加拉瓜议会决定将50年的使用权转给HKND时这个项目就被保密了。没有可行性研究，没有环境影响报告也没有商业案或者金融计划。相反的奥特加带领的桑地诺政府倒是说了一堆关于这个项目可以提供就业终结贫困的陈词滥调。

So far, it has brought as much fear as hope. Since Chinese-speaking surveyors, backed by Nicaraguan soldiers and police, began assessing land and houses along the canal's proposed 278km (172-mile) route a few months ago, peasants fearful of their land being expropriated have taken to the streets 16 times. On December 10th several thousand, shouting “We don't want the Chinese”, protested in Managua, the capital, despite police efforts to keep them in their villages, activists say. Boatmen in Punta Gorda on the Caribbean coast have refused to ferry heavy machinery to be used to begin construction, fearing their livelihoods will be harmed.

迄今为止，这个项目带给人们更多的是恐惧而非希望。几个月前，由尼加拉瓜士兵和警察撑腰的中方调查员开始估算运河沿岸287KM（172-m）房屋与土地。农民很担心他们的土地被征收，于是走上街头16次。活动者表示虽然警察努力让大家呆在村庄，但12月10日，首都马那瓜还是爆发抗议，几千人走上街头高喊：“不要中国人”。加勒比沿岸Punta Gorda的船夫拒绝运送用于建设的重型器械。他们担心自己的生活会遭到破坏。

In November the Nicaraguan Academy of Science convened a panel of experts to demand clarification of the impact of dredging sediment along a 105km stretch of Lake Nicaragua. They said it could damage drinking water, irrigation systems, fishing and biodiversity in one of Latin America's greatest tropical lakes. Engineers say the proposed canal, which is aimed at enticing bigger ships than those now able to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific, could run massively over budget and provoke further widening of the Panama Canal, which would ruin its business case.
11月，尼加拉瓜科学学院召集专家澄清沿着尼加拉瓜湖105km的地方动工的影响，他们表示这可能会使拉美最好的热带湖中的饮用水被污染，灌溉系统、渔业和生态多样性被破坏。工程师表示这条旨在能使更大的船只往来大西洋与太平洋的运河，其预算和引起的不满可能会远远大于巴拿马运河。而这会毁了建造运河这个计划。

Many still doubt it will ever be built. Carlos Fernando Chamorro, editor of an anti-Ortega publication, Confidencial, says the only groundbreaking on December 22nd will be for an access road to a proposed port near Brito, on the Pacific coast, at what is expected to be one entrance to the canal. Some experts think the port, a proposed airport nearby and a free-trade zone may be as far as the canal gets.
很多人还在怀疑运河是否会建。反奥特加的出版物Confidencial的主编Carlos Fernando Chamorro表示12月22号唯一的创举就是要建一条通向港口的路。这个港口在太平洋沿岸的Brito附近，仍在计划中，它也是运河的入口之一。 许多专家认为，建港口，飞机场和自由贸易区的好处比运河大得多。

But the case for a canal may not rest only on tolls and jobs. China may see it as a strategic route to the Atlantic, says Evan Ellis of the United States Army War College. If so, it might be built after all.
运河不单单能提供同行费与工作。美国陆军战争学院的Evan Ellis表示中国可能将其视作通往大西洋的战略要道。如果真的是这样，运河就一定会建。