经济学人下载:家庭财富 资产负债表的繁荣

Household wealth
家庭财富

The balance-sheet boom
资产负债表的繁荣

Household wealth, and debt, is forecast to swell in 2015
预计2015年家庭财富和债务将膨胀

WITH the excesses of Christmas nearly over, Britons are planning their budgets for the new year. Their decisions will be crucial for the economy. After paying down debts to repair their balance-sheets in the years after the financial crisis, consumers are spending again. Yet wealth, like wages, remains lower than in 2007. A recovery in riches is an essential component of official forecasts for further growth.
随着圣诞节购物狂潮接近尾声，英国人开始进行新一年的规划预算。他们的决定对经济状况至关重要。金融危机之后几年，在偿还完资产负债表的债务后，消费者们又开始消费了。然而家庭财富和工资一样，仍然低于2007年。财富复苏是官方预测未来发展的一个必要因素。

When the financial crisis hit, wealth immediately suffered (unlike real wages, which hardly budged in 2008 but have fallen every year since). Household net worth—ie, assets minus debts—plummeted by 12% in 2008, driven by a 13% fall in housing wealth, which makes up just under half of all household assets. The hole is not yet filled: adjusting for inflation, housing wealth—168,000 ($261,000) per household—remains 13% below its pre-crisis peak. Financial wealth, which includes investments in stocks and shares, has fared slightly better, but is still down 4% on 2007.
当金融危机袭来时，财富首当其冲遭受损害（不像实际的工资，2008年勉强回升但从那以后逐年下降）。家庭净值，也就是资产减去债务，在2008年骤然下降了12%，这是受了约占家庭资产一半的房屋财富下降13%的影响。这个窟窿至今还没有被填上：通货膨胀调整、家庭财富(每户168，000英镑（261，000）美元)保持在比危机前峰值低13%的水平。包括股票投资在内的金融财富稍有起色，但仍比2007年低7%。

As a result, households reduced their debts from 2008. Savings jumped from around 7% of income pre-crisis to 11% by 2010. By 2013 the average household had 62,000 worth of debt, down 16% in real terms on 2007. Largely as a result of this frugality, household net worth, which averaged 320,000 in 2013, has recovered about half its losses from the crisis.
其结果就是，自2008年以来，家庭减少了债务。危机前约占收入7%的储蓄在2010年达到了11%。2013年，每家约有62，000镑的债务，扣除物价因素比2007年降低了16%。在这种俭省的影响下，2013年平均为320，000英镑的家庭净值已挽回了危机中一半的损失。

That suggests that balance-sheets are not fully patched up. Yet consumers have been spending more; since 2013 saving has hovered around its pre-crisis level. And forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britain's fiscal watchdog, see it falling further still, from 6.6% of income in 2014 to 5.4% in 2015 and then 4.8% by 2019.
这表明资产负债表并没有完全被修补好。然而消费者已经开始增加支出了，自2013年，储蓄就在危机前水平左右徘徊。英国财政监督部门预算责任办公室(OBR)预测，储蓄将会进一步下降，从2014年收入的6.6%下降到2015年的5.4%，然后到2019年的4.8%。

Several factors lie behind the reversal. Better employment prospects mean workers are less in need of rainy-day funds. They might also expect wage growth and want to borrow against that future income. But the most significant factor is recent house-price growth, which boosts homeowners' wealth without them needing to save. House prices are up 17.5% on average since 2012 (30% in London) and the OBR reckons a further rise of 7.4% is on the cards in 2015.
这个逆转背后有几个因素。更好的就业前景意味着工人们没那么需要雨天基金了。他们也可以期望涨工资和预支工资。但最重要的一个因素就是最近的房价增长，这使房主的财富增长，不需要存钱了。自2012年以来，房价平均上涨了17.5%（伦敦上涨了30%）。OBR预测2015年可能会进一步上涨7.4%。

It was a housing boom that allowed the aggregate debt-to-income ratio to reach a record high of close to 170% before the crisis. The OBR now forecasts another balance-sheet boom, with debt surpassing its pre-crisis high in 2017 and reaching 184% of income by 2020.
正是房屋市场的繁荣让整体上的债务收入比达到了历史新高，约是危机前的170%。OBR预测将有新一轮资产负债表繁荣，债务将在2017年超过危机前最高水平，在2020年达到收入的184%。

This is troubling. If puffed-up house prices prove temporary—as in 2007—high debt could leave households vulnerable and harm the financial system. Housing is illiquid, meaning that in a crisis fire-sales can cause prices to fall rapidly. Even at current levels—146% of income—the Bank of England rightly frets about household debt, and in October limited the number of high-risk mortgages banks can issue (the market has cooled slightly since). The bank's concern makes the OBR's forecast look either wrong or terrifying.
这很棘手。如果和2007年一样膨胀的房价只是暂时的，高额债务可能让家庭财富不堪一击并损害到财政系统。住房是不动产，意味着在危机大甩卖中，房价可能骤跌。即使在现在水平——收入的146%，英国央行担忧家庭债务也无可厚非，在10月份，央行限制了能提供高风险抵押贷款的银行数（自那以后市场就稍微冷却了）。央行的担忧使得OBR的预测看起来要么错了，要么令人惊恐。

In addition, saving is lower than the figures suggest, according to a recent working paper by John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, and Bernard Casey of Warwick University. The (recently revised) statistics fail to count pension payouts as running down savings. Adjust for this and the savings rate fell to -0.2% in 2013 and will become more sharply negative if the OBR forecast is borne out. So much for an end to Christmas excess.
另外，根据养老金顾问约翰·拉尔夫和华威大学的伯纳德·卡西的一篇工作论文所说，实际储蓄比数据显示的要低。（最近修订的）数据没有将养老金支出当作储蓄流失算进去。对此进行调整后，2013年的储蓄率下降到了-0.2%，如果OBR的预测成真，那这一负数将更大。这就是本次圣诞购物狂欢的大体状况。