经济学人下载:土耳其的明天 驶向往日荣光

Turkey's future
土耳其的明天

Forward to the past
驶向往日荣光

Can Turkey's past glories be revived by its grandiose Islamist president?
在穆斯林派总统的带领下土耳其能否恢复往日辉煌？

Tayyip in all his pomp
浮夸的埃尔多安。

“I DON'T order you to fight, I order you to die.” With those words Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey, rallied his troops against the British-led forces fighting for the Dardanelles in 1915 during the first world war, when Turkey was allied to Germany. Ataturk's men won the battle for the straits, but the Ottoman empire lost the war. As millions of Turks prepare to mark the centenary of the battle of Gallipoli—the bloodiest of the campaign—on April 25th, many will hail it as the moment when the seeds of Ataturk's secular republic were planted.
第一次世界大战期间，土耳其曾经是德国的盟友，当时的土耳其国父—穆斯塔法·凯末尔·阿塔土克曾说：“我不强迫你们去战斗，但我命令你们为国家而亡。”彼时正值1915年，他募集军队与英国为了达达尼尔海峡而战。土耳其人民赢得了这场海峡战斗，但是奥斯曼帝国却输掉整场战争。现在，数以百万计的土耳其的人想要在4月25号这一天举行这场血淋淋的加利波利战役的百年纪念日—很多土耳其人都将它看成是土耳其共和国的建国基业。

But what remains of his legacy? The question is more urgent as Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's first popularly elected president, presses for constitutional changes that would endow him with executive power. He then hopes to fulfil his dream of a new and assertive Turkey, where Sunni Islam prevails and the glories of the old empire are revived. Others are less enthusiastic. “Turkey will become a Middle East-style dictatorship,” predicts Levent Gultekin, a prominent pundit.
但是这场战争留下了何种“遗产”？这个问题的答案对于土耳其共和国第一任普选总统—埃尔多安来说尤为迫切，体制改革的压力可能会迫使他将自己“捐献”给政府。只有在逊尼派穆斯林占据主流并且“帝国”恢复往日荣光时，他才能梦想实现他关于一个崭新的，自主的土耳其的愿望。而其他的方面的改革都被放缓。著名品论家Levent Gultekin语言“土耳其将成为一个中东类型的独裁国家。”

That may be an exaggeration. But Mr Erdogan certainly has grandiose ambitions. At Ataturk's farm near Ankara, he has built a garish new presidential complex with 1,150 rooms at a cost of $615m. He has decreed that the old Ottoman language and script, which Ataturk replaced with a roman one in 1928, be mandatory in the imam hatip schools for Muslim clergy that have nearly quadrupled in number since his conservative Justice and Development party (AK) came to power in 2002.
也许这样的言论太过极端。但是埃尔多安明显有着极大的野心。他在安卡拉附件的Ataturk农场上建立了一座由1150间房间构成的总统府，耗资接近6.15亿美元。而自从2002年由他领导的保守派公正与发展党（AK党）执政之后，他再度启用从1928年之后就被罗马文字取代的奥斯曼语言和文字，并且强制要求在那些培养穆斯林教士的伊玛目哈蒂普学校中必须使用该语言—这类学校的数量在他执政期间增加了几乎四倍之多。

To realise Mr Erdogan's plans, AK will have to win a fourth general election in a row. One is due by June. Few doubt that AK will come first. The main opposition, the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), is a shambles. Still, AK must bag at least two-thirds of the seats in the 550-member parliament if it is unilaterally to replace the constitution drawn up by the generals after they seized power in 1980. It is unlikely to manage that.
但是如若要实现埃尔多安的计划，AK党需要接下来连续赢得四次大选。其中一次将于今年6月进行。考虑到主要的反对党—世俗人民共和党处在一篇狼藉之中，AK党毫无疑问能赢得大选。不过如果AK党想要完全重建自上世纪80年代他们掌权之后构造的国家体制，他们至少要在550个议会席位中占据三分之二以上—要实现这一目标现在还不太现实。

Indeed, Turkey's increasingly autocratic president faces several serious challenges in 2015. The first is to maintain his grip on AK. Signs of internal dissent recently appeared when Binali Yildirim, one of Mr Erdogan's trusties, declared that the president would chair a cabinet meeting on January 5th. This irked Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister, handpicked by Mr Erdogan to succeed him when he switched to the presidency in August. “Matters that concern me and our president can only be announced by him and me,” harrumphed Mr Davutoglu. “No such meeting will take place.” Rumours swirl of a rival “shadow cabinet” of Mr Erdogan's sycophants. Moreover, the president is said to want to decide who should be on AK's list of candidates in the forthcoming election.
事实上，这位越发独裁的土耳其总统在2015年将面对不少严峻的挑战。首当其冲的就是如何维系他在AK党内的统治力。不久之前，埃尔多安的前亲信Binali Yildirim单方面宣称总统将会在1月5号举行一次内阁会议，这一事件表明AK党内部的分歧正渐渐浮出水面。Binali Yildirim的言论同时也激怒了总理Ahmet Davutoglu，后者在埃尔多安去年8月执政之后被钦定为他的助手。总理表示“所有与我本人以及总统有关的消息都只能由我们二人亲自宣布，所谓的内阁会议根本是子虚乌有。”关于某个为了对抗埃尔多安的支持者而成立的“影子议会”的谣言也传得沸沸扬扬。更有甚者宣称总统计划指定AK党内参与接下来大选的人员名单。

Another big issue is corruption. A small but growing group in AK feel uneasy about the charges that have been levelled against Mr Erdogan and his inner circle. The government's response of shifting the prosecutors and police concerned raised eyebrows. A 16-year-old student was briefly detained for calling Mr Erdogan a “thief”.
另一个无法忽视的问题就是腐败。AK党内部越来越多人发现要处理针对埃尔多安和他的核心集团的指控并不是那么轻松了。而政府的做法则是更换起诉人和要求涉事警界人员真一只眼闭一只眼。之前有一个16岁的学生因为说埃尔多安是“小偷”而被拘留。

Mr Erdogan says that Fethullah Gulen, an ambitious Sunni cleric and former ally who lives in Pennsylvania, was behind calls to investigate alleged corruption at the top, in cahoots with “higher minds”, meaning Israel and the United States, with the aim of toppling the government. Thousands of alleged Gulenists, who deny these claims, have been purged from the police and the judiciary. Journalists from newspapers and television channels affiliated to Mr Gulen have been detained on terrorist charges with scant evidence. America's likely refusal to extradite Mr Gulen will add to strains between the two NATO allies that had already risen because of Turkey's reluctance to play a bigger part in the coalition against the jihadists of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
埃尔多安的前盟友—现居美国宾夕法尼亚的知名逊尼派人士法土拉葛兰一直从一种“更高的意识形态”上呼吁对土耳其政府高层进行反腐调查，总统则认为他是在以色列和美国的支持下意图颠覆现任政府。而不久之前，总统刚刚进行了一次媒体洗牌，数以千计的“葛兰派”报纸和电视台记者因为否认这种言论因为莫须有的从事恐怖活动的罪名被警方和司法机构逮捕。因为土耳其拒绝在针对在伊拉克和叙利亚的伊斯兰圣战组织的联盟中出更多力，土耳其和美国这两个北约盟友之间本已关系紧张，现在美国拒绝引渡葛兰回国更可能会加剧这依情况。

A third headache for Mr Erdogan, perhaps his biggest, is the economy. Sagging oil prices have boosted it. The current-account deficit is expected to shrink and inflation to fall this year. Yet growth needs to exceed 3% if living standards are to be maintained, and Turkey shows few signs of managing that without a politically testing programme of liberalising reforms. Some 2m refugees from Syria are also straining the state's coffers.
不过埃尔多安超过三分之一的心思，或者说最大的麻烦都应该在经济问题上。而现在持续下跌的原油价格更是加剧了这一点。往来账户赤字和通货膨胀本来今年都有望下降。如果要维持现行水平，那么经济增长至少要突破3%，但是土耳其现在却鲜有试行政策改革和自由化改革的迹象。同时来自叙利亚接近200万的难民更加重了国家的负担。

More hopeful are Mr Erdogan's relations with his Kurds. Their main political group in Turkey, known as the Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP), says it will contest this year's election as a party, instead of as independents. Should it fail to cross the threshold of 10% of the vote needed to enter parliament, AK might then sweep up most of the seats in the mainly Kurdish south-east. That could give Mr Erdogan the two-thirds of seats he must have to alter the constitution without a referendum.
相比之下比较有希望的是埃尔多安与库尔德人的关系。他们主要以人民民主党的形式活动在土耳其政界，今年他们宣布将以一个完整的政党参选，而不是像之前一样以无党派人士的形式。一旦他们赢得了10%的选票—进入议会的门槛条件，那么AK党接下来可能就会开始清理东南部库尔德人的大部分席位。这样一来，埃尔多安就能或者他急需的议会中三分之二的席位，然后跳过公民投票直接开始他的体制改革。

Why would the Kurds risk this? Some speculate that there is a secret deal between their imprisoned rebel leader, Abdullah Ocalan, and Mr Erdogan. The Kurds say the HDP block will get enough votes to enter parliament. But if it does not, they will set up an informal parliament. A ceasefire between the government and Mr Ocalan's Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been holding shakily for two years. The PKK is bogged down in the battle with Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and cannot afford to resume fighting within Turkey. But if AK fails to keep its promises to improve the lot of Kurds, it would be only a matter of time before the PKK rebels again. And that could knock many of Mr Erdogan's plans for glory askew.
为什么库尔德人要冒这个险？有人推测这是因为他们牢狱中的反政府领袖Abdullah Ocalan和埃尔多安签订了一项秘密交易。库尔德人宣称人民民主党将赢得足够的选票进入议会。但是万一他们失败了，那么他们将会成立一个非官方的议会。土耳其政府和Ocalan的库尔德斯坦工人党（PKK党）之间的停火协议已经摇摇欲坠地维持了2年之久。PKK党已经深陷与伊斯兰国家（叙利亚和伊拉克）的战争泥潭中，已经无力在支撑进行土耳其内斗。但是一旦AKK党不能按承诺所说给予库尔德人许多好处，PKK党再次反抗的日子也不会很远了。那对埃尔多安“扭曲”的光辉计划来说必将是不小的打击。