经济学人下载:美国国内形势 共和党掌权

The state of the states
美国国内形势

Republicans in charge
共和党掌权

The GOP has more clout in the states than at any time since the 1920s
自20世纪20年代以来，老大党在美国有更大的权势。

ON ELECTION nights, the results for state legislatures get short shrift. Americans want to know who won the presidency or which party controls Congress, not whether the Kentucky state Senate turned red. But those not paying attention to recent down-ballot results have missed something big. Republicans now dominate government at the state level (see map). Bolstered by victories in last year's mid-term elections, they hold 31 state governorships, to the Democrats' 18. (Alaska's governor, Bill Walker, is an independent, although he was a Republican until 2013.)
在选举之夜，对于州立法机关来说，选举结果遇冷。美国民众想知道谁赢得了总统一职，哪一个党派掌控国会，而不是肯塔基州参议院“变成红色”。然而，无视近期的投票结果就已经错过了一些重大事情。共和党现在站在国家级别的高度，控制政府（见地图）。自去年中期大选获胜，共和党已经握有31个州长，而民主党只有18个（尽管阿拉斯加州长比尔·沃克在2013年以前是共和党，但现在他是独立派）。

Republicans now control both chambers in 30 state legislatures, while the Democrats control 11 and eight are split. In 24 states Republican power is unchecked—meaning they control the legislature and the governorship. The party has not had this much clout in the states since the 1920s.
如今，共和党控制了两院30个州立法机关，相比而言，民主党则控制了11个，8个处于分裂状态。其中在24个州，共和党的权利未加抑制—这意味着他们控制了立法机关和州长。自20世纪20年代以来，共和党从未具有如此大的影响力。

When a clutch of new Republican governors took office four years ago, they acted on their conservative impulses, cutting taxes, trimming welfare and restricting abortion. Scott Walker of Wisconsin became a Republican hero for taking on the public-sector unions: he made state employees chip in more for their pensions, ended the automatic deduction of union dues from their wages and barred unions from collective bargaining over issues other than pay. The tax cuts of Sam Brownback, the governor of Kansas, were so bold as to earn an unwieldy nickname: Brownbackonomics. Both Mr Walker and Mr Brownback won re-election last year, while Republicans nabbed governorships in Democratic states like Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. But the tide of conservative legislation may be ebbing. With many states facing big fiscal challenges, Republican governors have adopted a more moderate tone when laying out their agendas for 2015.
四年前，新的共和党州长走马上任，沿用保守态度，实施削减税收、福利项目，限制堕胎。威斯康星州的斯科特·沃克因承接公共部门的公会而成为共和党英雄：工薪阶层投入更多到他们的养老金里，结束了公会自动扣除其工资的模式，禁止除了薪酬问题以外的劳资谈判。堪萨斯州州长萨姆·布朗巴克的减税措施如此大胆，因而获得了一个“雅名”：布朗巴克经济学。沃克先生和布朗巴克先生均在去年的选举中获胜，但共和党却在民主党握有的州（比如伊利诺斯州、马里兰、马萨诸塞等）中觅得州长一职。然而，保守立法的浪潮渐渐褪去。因许多国家面临巨大的财务危机，共和党州长在提出2015年议程时采取了一种更为温和的语调。

Take Mr Walker, who has described a proposal to make Wisconsin a “right-to-work” state—ie, to ban deals that make it compulsory for workers at a private company to join a union—as a “distraction”. Faced with a $2.2 billion budget gap over the next two years, the governor has largely abandoned talk of cutting taxes. Republicans hold large majorities in both legislative chambers, but they support such fiscal prudence.
沃克先生已经提议，把威斯康星州建成一个“有权工作”的州，即禁止私企员工义务加入工会；此举被视为“干扰”。未来两年，州长面临22亿美元的鸿沟预算，现几乎放弃了削减税收。虽然共和党议员在两院立法机构有多数优势，但是他们却支持这样的财政审慎。

Presidential ambitions may be tempering Mr Walker's conservative zeal, but other Republican governors are following suit. In Arizona, which also faces a budget shortfall, Doug Ducey has scaled back his campaign promise to cut income taxes. Gary Herbert of Utah has told lawmakers to consider raising petrol or sales taxes to pay for highway repairs. Illinois finds itself in the deepest hole of any state, so Bruce Rauner has warned his constituents that they will all need to sacrifice.
沃克先生的保守激情对其控制当总统额野心稍有帮助，但是其他共和党州长纷纷仿效。美国亚利桑那州同样面对预算差额，道格·杜西按比例缩减其竞选承诺旨在削减所得税。犹他州的盖瑞·赫伯特已经告诉立法者考虑提高汽油或销售税，支付高速公路的维护费用。伊利诺斯州发现自己陷入深渊，故Bruce Rauner警告他的官员，他们要付出代价。

To the newly-elected, Mr Brownback now serves as a cautionary tale. His business- and income-tax cuts, signed in 2012 and 2013, were the most ambitious of any state. He wanted to close loopholes to pay for this, but the legislature refused, leading to an enormous loss of revenue. After a hoped-for economic boom did not materialise, Standard & Poor's, a credit-rating agency, downgraded Kansas's debt, declaring its budget “structurally unbalanced”. Mr Brownback barely eked out a victory last year. In his inaugural address this month he acknowledged that the state has economic problems, but claimed “the solutions are principally cultural and moral”.
对于刚获选的布朗巴克先生来说，他现在表现的很谨慎。他的商业和收入税削减计划，分别于2012年和2013年签署，曾是国内所有州中最具野心的一项计划。他想关闭漏洞，为此计划买单；但是，立法机关拒绝该计划，导致了收入亏损。继一项经济复苏计划未能如愿使标普（信誉评价机构）降低堪萨斯州的债务信誉，且称其预算“结构不平衡”。去年，布朗巴克先生获得了小小的胜利。在他本月的就职演讲中，他了解到，该州存在经济问题，但却声称“解决方法主要是通过文化和道德”。

John Kasich, the governor of Ohio (who may also be gearing up for a presidential run), has been more pragmatic. Since taking office in 2011 he has balanced the state's budget while cutting taxes and red tape. He also picked a fight with public-sector unions, and lost. That spurred him to adopt a more conciliatory approach. Having won re-election by over 30 points last year, he now wants to cut income taxes even more—but he would pay for it by raising taxes on energy companies, which has incurred the wrath of some on the right.
俄亥俄州州长John Kasich（有望参加总统竞选），变得更加现实了。自2011年任职以来，他已经平衡了该州的预算，同时也削减了税收、改善了官僚习气。他挑起了一场与公共部门工会的“战争”，惨败。这激发他采取一种调和的方法。去年多于对手30票而获胜，John Kasich想进一步削减所得税——同时会通过提高能源公司的税收来弥补，此举引起了右派的不满。

Mr Kasich has faced fiercer criticism from conservatives for having accepted federal Obamacare dollars to expand Medicaid, the public health programme for the poor, in 2014. But he may have been ahead of the curve. Last month Bill Haslam said he hoped to make Tennessee the tenth state with a Republican governor to expand the programme. (His plan must still pass the legislature.) Five others are thinking about it. Some want to incorporate ideas like cost-sharing or job-training requirements, which would provide political cover. Drew Altman of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a research outfit, predicts that eventually “most, if not all” of the remaining states will find some way to accept the extra cash and expand Medicaid.
Kasich先生因接受来自联邦“奥巴马医改”的资金援助扩大“医疗补助计划”——2014年穷人公共卫生计划。然而，他或许已经引领了潮流。上个月，Bill Haslam表示，他希望把排名位于第十位的田纳西州（州长是共和党议员）加入到此计划中来（他的计划必须通过立法）。其他五位议员正在考虑此事。有人想合并成本分担或职业需求之类的想法，这样可以提供政治掩护。凯瑟家庭基金会（一家调查机构）的德鲁·阿尔特曼预估，最终“大部分，若不是所有”的剩下州将找到其他办法接受额外的资金援助，扩大“医疗补助计划”。

Schoolyard brawl
A more difficult test for pragmatic governors is “Common Core”, the national education standards that have been adopted by over 40 states since 2010. Several governors (both Republicans and Democrats) have had to beat back efforts to kill the standards, which activists denounce as federal overreach or poor policy. Some governors, like Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, have withdrawn their support. States run by potential presidential candidates, such as Mr Jindal, seem most likely to backtrack. The issue is already dogging Jeb Bush, a pragmatic former governor of Florida who supports Common Core and has his eyes set on the White House.

校园斗殴
对实用州长更为困难的测试是“通用核心”，即自2010年被逾40个州采用的国家教育标准。一些州长（既有共和党人也有民主党人）突出重围，取消该标准，激进主义分子谴责其行为是联邦越权或“穷人政策”。像路易斯安那州州长Bobby Jindal已经撤出。总统候选人比如Jindal先生所管理的州最有可能放弃。此事可追溯到杰布·布什佛罗里达州前州长，实用主义者，支持“通用核心”，而且他已经“盯上”白宫了。

With just seven states under complete Democratic control, it is easy to forget about the party's governors. But most have also set aside ideology to pursue practical agendas. In California Jerry Brown has held the line on spending, even as the state's university system clamours for cash. Instead of introducing new programmes, Mr Brown has focused on dealing with the state's long-term debts. In New York, Andrew Cuomo has vowed to tackle inequality and improve education. He has already upset teachers' unions by signalling that he wants to increase the number of charter schools and make it easier to fire bad teachers.
因为只有7名州长是民主党议员，所以这些州长很容易被人遗忘。尽管如此，大部分人还是追求实用议程。在加州，杰里·布朗在费用问题上坚决不肯让步，即便州立大学体系叫嚷着要钱。布朗先生集中解决长期困扰该州的债务问题而不是引进新项目。在纽约，Andrew Cuomo已经宣誓解决不平等问题、提高教育质量。同时，他还签署了关于增开委办学校、易于开除平行不好的老师的协议，这让教师工会很困扰。

The states are not devoid of ideological conflict. Twenty-five are suing Barack Obama over his refusal to deport certain groups of illegal immigrants. Others are considering voter-ID requirements, drug tests for welfare recipients and further curbs on unions. A host of anti-abortion bills have been filed: Republicans are trying to build on the 231 new restrictions adopted since 2010, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a pro-choice think-tank. Many legislatures are also wrestling with gay marriage; 14 states still do not allow it. But on fiscal issues, at least, tight budgets restrain the radicals of the right.
这些州并不是没有意识斗争。25名州长控诉布拉克·奥巴马关于拒绝驱逐非法移民的事宜。其他人则在考虑选民身份的要求、福利收据的药检以及对工会的进一步制裁。大量关于反堕胎的法案已经归档：据古赫马特研究所（提倡堕胎合法化的智库），共和党则在试图重塑2010年引进额231项新的限制条例。许多立法机构正在与同性婚姻周旋；14个州依旧不承认其合法性。但是至少，就财经问题而言，紧缩的预算限制了激进分子的权利。译者：黄柳