经济学人下载:2016大选阵势 罗姆尼回归

The 2016 field
2016大选阵势

Romney returns
罗姆尼回归

The list of possible Republican candidates grows longer and more familiar
共和党竞选人数越来越多，面孔愈发熟悉

WHEN a man wishes to run for president, he no longer announces the fact to voters, or chooses an issue on which to take a stand. Instead, he lets a group of donors know that he is “exploring” the possibility of a bid, as if the campaign trail were some inaccessible region inhabited by polar bears. For Mitt Romney, who told donors on January 9th that he might run again, after months of scoffing at the idea, it is hardly unfamiliar terrain. Should he give it a go, 2016 would see the third Romney presidential campaign (not counting his father's).
一个人即使想要竞选总统，对选民他也会绝口不提，也不会就某事踩定立场，而是放出风声给那些捐助人，让他们知道他正在“招标”，貌似竞选遥遥不可及，还缩在北极熊那旮旯里。而对于罗姆尼，这一场景也是似曾相识，他在1月9号告知捐助人，在几个月的深思熟虑后，他可能决定再度参选。若不算他的父亲，这已经是第三个参选的罗姆尼。

Why Mr Romney—a decent man who in 2012 was pounded by adverts painting him as a heartless capitalist and careless pet owner, then denounced as useless by fellow Republicans when he lost—should want to make another attempt on the presidency is a puzzle. Perhaps the best explanation was given by another explorer: because it is there. In very early polling, Mr Romney tops a list of possible Republican candidates so long that it is sometimes quicker to mention who is not running. The likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, currently looks a formidable opponent for any of them, but she has hardly been tested yet and, if she runs, will get little campaigning practice in her party's primary.
为何罗姆尼决定再注一掷原因仍然不明，要知道这样一个体面的人在2012年却被媒体渲染成一个没心没肺的资本家，粗心大意的饲养者，铩羽而归之日又被共和党人指责毫无用武之地，也许原因来自一项调查：调查结果显示总统一职几乎手到擒来。早先的投票结果中，罗姆尼位居所有共和党人之首，领先差距之大有时能一眼看出哪些已没希望，而民主党候选人可能是希拉里克林顿，一旦成功几乎是他们所有人最为强劲的对手，但她还没有经过试炼，在初选中获得的经验也是寥寥无几。

Also in Mr Romney's favour is his surname. He would begin any campaign with the sort of recognition that costs many millions of dollars. More important, his name is not Bush, which polling suggests is not a popular one among independent voters. Republicans last won the White House without a Bush on the ticket in 1972. But if feelings were to harden against Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida and a fellow 2016 explorer, it would create some space on the business wing of the party, which thought it had found a winner until Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, got into a kerfuffle over a bridge and saw his state's bonds downgraded.=
罗姆尼的姓氏无疑给他赢得了加分，这种认可度作为任何竞选的起点往往会耗资百万，更重要的是它不姓布什，这个姓氏在选民中可不受欢迎，上一次非布什家族的人入主白宫还得追溯到1972年，但如果人们一意抵制杰布布什—佛罗里达前州长及2016参选人，到会给该党经济翼创造更多空间，之前他们也是满心以为胜券在握，但新泽西州州长克里斯克里斯蒂无疑给他们泼了一盆冷水，

Were that gap to open, one of Mr Romney's immediate tasks would be to write a campaign book. Even for a life as lively as his, a third autobiography may seem like overkill. Though he is a self-described turnaround specialist, a Romney presidency seems unlikely. But that's what they said about Ronald Reagan, whose first two bids also failed.
若差距拉大，那罗姆尼的当务之急便是写一本竞选书籍，但即使他的阅历多姿多彩，第三本自传也显得叠床架屋，虽然他自称尤擅重张旗鼓，但赢得希望还是十分渺茫。但这也是当年对于里根的主流看法，他前两次竞选均为碰壁。