经济学人下载:英国政治 法拉奇反抗主流政坛

British politics
英国政治

Farage against the machine
法拉奇反抗主流政坛

Mainstream politicians seeking to rival the populism of Nigel Farage's party are on a hiding to nothing
主流政客寻找机会对抗奈吉尔·法拉奇的民粹主义政党，但这是毫无胜算的

INSURGENT populist parties are now a familiar feature of the European political landscape, yet their rise is so recent and so sharp that it still has the power to shock the mainstream. In by-elections on October 9th the right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP), which wants to stop immigration and pull Britain out of the European Union, not only won its first parliamentary seat, which it took from the Conservative Party, but also nearly grabbed one from the Labour Party, which hitherto regarded UKIP as the Tories' problem. Polls since the by-election have put the party anywhere from 13% to 25% of the vote nationally. Next month another by-election offers UKIP the chance to grab another Tory seat.
离经叛道的民粹政党现在已经是欧洲政坛的常客了，他们的崛起是如此的迅速而突然，震惊了主流政党。在10月9日的递补选举中，右翼的英国独立党(UKIP)主张反对移民和脱离欧盟，他们不仅从保守党手里第一次赢得了国会议席，还差一点赢了一直将其视为托利派的“眼中钉”的劳工党。自从递补选举之后的民意调查显示，英国独立党的全国得票率已经从13%上升到25%了。下个月的另一场递补选举让该党有机会进一步从保守党派手中夺得更多议席。

Neither David Cameron, the Tory prime minister, nor Ed Miliband, Labour's leader, has much sympathy for UKIP's positions. But both are trimming their policies in an effort to emulate the insurgent's success. To placate his party's perennially disaffected right—from which two MPs have so far defected to UKIP—Mr Cameron has promised to renegotiate freedom of movement within the European Union ahead of a referendum on Britain's membership. He is now being urged to say that if he fails in that renegotiation, he would advocate leaving the EU. Mr Miliband, under pressure to produce a rival populist offer as Labour's vote crumbles to UKIP in the party's northern redoubts, has come up with an incoherent promise to crack down on immigrant welfare-claimants.
不管是保守派的首相大卫·卡梅伦还是劳工党的党魁艾德·米利班德，都不完全认同英国独立党的定位，但这两个政党也正在参照独立党的主张调整各自的政策，以求获得和独立党类似的成功。为了安抚党内一直存在的右翼成员的不满情绪——很多国会已经倒戈到了独立党——卡梅伦已经承诺会在举行英国加入会员公投之前，重新协商欧盟之间人员出入自由的问题。他现在已经不得不表示如果在重新协商中失败，他可能会支持英国脱离欧盟。米利班德迫于压力提出了和竞争对手民粹党派类似的提案，许诺会向移民福利索赔人施压，以此来防止更多在北部阵地的劳工党投票人倒向英国独立党。

There are three problems with this approach. First, Britain's EU membership and high level of immigration bring it huge benefits in terms of economic growth, cultural vibrancy and clout. Abandoning either would, in this paper's view, weaken the country in a multitude of ways. Indeed, the two other parties should spend far more time pointing out the contradictions in UKIP's back-of-a-beer-mat economics.
有三个问题。首先，英国的欧盟成员国资格和大量的移民非常有利于英国的经济增长以及文化的活力和影响力。本刊认为，缺少任何一个条件都会在各个方面削弱国家实力。确实，这两个政党应该花更多时间指出英国独立党经济政策的矛盾之处。

Second, pandering to UKIP will not work, because it misreads the nature of the party's appeal to a core of disgruntled, down-at-heel, poorly skilled voters, in bad jobs or no jobs. Having been most damaged by the downturn, then by austerity, they will be the last to feel the benefits of the recovery. Their main complaint, echoed across the Western world, is against powerful and irreversible economic trends—globalisation and automation—from which they are the losers. Their antipathy towards the EU and immigration is part of a wider deep-seated insecurity that is hard for any politician to assuage. UKIP's solutions would make the disaffected worse, not better, off, as business and jobs migrated elsewhere. Besides, many such voters trust establishment politicians like Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband so little that they would not believe them even if they did promise the same sort of things as Nigel Farage, UKIP's engagingly blokeish leader.
第二，取悦英国独立党是没用的，因为这是在误解该政党核心诉求的本质，认为它的投票者是一群心怀不满、穷困潦倒、缺乏技能、干着一份不满意的工作或者根本就没有工作的人。在经历过经济衰退之后节衣缩食，他们是社会中最晚感受到经济复苏的好处的人。他们的抱怨声在西方世界中回响，他们不满的是强大而不可避免的经济趋势——全球化和机械化，只因为他们在其中是失败者。他们对于欧盟华为移民的厌恶是处于一种更为广泛且根深蒂固不安全感，这是任何一个政客都很难缓和的。英国独立党的解决方案会令这种不满加剧而不是缓解，因为商业和工作岗位会搬到其他地方。另外，即使像卡梅伦和米利班德这样的当权者做出和独立党党魁奈吉尔·法拉奇一样吸引人的承诺，很多投票者也不会信任他们。

The third problem is that, in trying to placate these irreconcilables, the mainstream parties risk alienating a larger, milder group of voters, who fear the consequences of leaving Europe and dislike their leaders bashing immigrants. The lesson of every election for three decades is that the path to power lies on the centre ground.
第三个问题是，为了安抚这些不合群的人，主流政党所冒的风险是疏远了更多、更温和的投票群体，他们担忧英国脱离欧盟的后果，也不喜欢他们的领袖打击移民。过去三十年所有的选举经验表明，中庸之道者得天下。

That lesson is especially relevant to Mr Cameron, who came to power as a result of his efforts to detoxify the Conservative brand. Pandering further to UKIP might well restore the Tories' old reputation for nastiness. Mr Farage is not going to go away; but the election is still going to be fought mainly over the question of who will manage the economy best.
卡梅伦尤其应该从中吸取教训，他自己就是以清除败类、为保守党形象正名而掌权的。继续讨好英国独立党可能会重新玷污托利派人的形象。法拉奇不会离开，但选举最后还是要看谁能把经济管理的更好。