经济学人下载:法国省议会选举 三雄争霸

French elections
法国省议会选举

Menage a trios
三雄争霸

The National Front's strength makes French politics a three-way affair
极右翼国民前线实力增强，法国政治陷三雄争霸局面

SOMETIMES small elections are markers of major political change.France's latest vote, a two-round ballot on March 22nd and 29th to elect deputies to the 98 assemblies of France's “departments”, may well turn out to be just such an election. On the face of it, the outcome will be a straightforward victory for the centre-right, led by Nicolas Sarkozy, a former president. In reality, it marks a shift in France from alternating two-party politics to a more fluid tripartite system.
有时小型选举可以导致重大的政治变化。22日和29日，法国分别举行了第一轮和第二轮98个省议会的议员选举投票。这次选举极有可能正中其说。表面来看，由法国前总统尼克拉斯·萨科齐领导的中右翼派将在选举中获得直接胜利。但实际上，这次选举标志着法国由两党轮流执政向更加不固定的三党制的转变。

The first element in this new political order is the performance of the populist National Front (FN), with its anti-immigration, anti-Europe and anti-establishment message. The party's combative leader, Marine Le Pen, had hoped it would come top in first-round voting and become, in her words, “the first party ofFrance”. In the end, Mr Sarkozy's UMP scored 29%, while the FN finished second with 25%, short of the triumph she had hoped for.
奉行民粹主义的国民前线在选举中的言行是造成这种政治新格局的首要因素。此前，该党宣扬三反政策（反移民、反欧洲和反政府），其斗志昂扬的领导人马琳·勒庞希望该党在首轮选举中斩获第一，用她的话说，“成为法国第一大党”。而结果呢，以萨科齐为首的右翼派人民运动联盟赢得29%的票数，而国民前线以25%的票数位居第二，并未达到勒庞所希冀的大胜。

For some commentators, this amounted to a defeat. Manuel Valls, the Socialist prime minister whose party came third with 21%, reportedly lit a cigar to celebrate the FN's failure to place first. It was, he said, an “honourable” result for his party, and he congratulated “republican” voters for rejecting a party which, he judges, does not share the country's founding values. Certainly the polls, which had predicted Ms Le Pen's party would win about 30%, turned out to have been a poor guide, in part because voter turnout was higher than usual for this sort of election.
有些评论员认为这相当于失败告终。社会党以21%的票数居于第三，据报道，该党成员曼纽尔·瓦尔斯总理点燃一根雪茄，庆祝国民前线名列第一梦破碎。他表示，此种结果对其政党来说是一大幸事，并且他祝贺“拥护共和政体”的选民：他们没有支持他个人认为不具有法国最初价值观的政党。不可否认的是，民意调查曾预测以勒庞为首的政党会以30%左右的票数获胜，但事实证明它起了错误的导向作用，这主要因为此类选举的投票人数多于以往数量。

Yet it is a measure of how far the FN has come to shape the French political debate that her result could be considered a disappointment. It was the party's best-ever score at national level, just above that achieved at European elections in 2014. The party came top in nearly half the country's departments, including some of the rural constituencies that have become its new frontier. In the run-offs, the FN is set to pick up scores of councillors, up from just two in 2011.
然而，这可以衡量国民前线对于其选举结果是否令选民大失所望之争的作用大小。该结果是该党在国家级竞选史上的最好成绩，超过2014年的欧洲选举成果。国民前线掌控了近半数省份，其中包括一些边远的乡村新选区。决选时期，国民前线很可能赢得几十个议员的支持，一改2011年仅仅两位的记录。

In other words, the FN is transforming itself from a fringe movement that throws up periodic freak results into a regular feature of French politics, with the electoral ups and downs that this implies. This increasingly makes it an alternative opposition party to the governing Socialists, with a solid quarter or so of voters. Such a position is all the more remarkable given that the UMP's first-place score was achieved only thanks to an alliance with the UDI and Modem, two centrist parties.
换言之，国民前线不断提升自身实力，由产生周期性反常结果的边缘运动向法国的固定政党转变，这表现出选举胜败无常的道理。这种转变让该党日益成为与稳拿1/4左右票数的执政党社会党轮流执政的反对党。右翼派人民运动联盟与独立民主联盟、Modem两个中间派组成竞选联盟，鉴于此，国民前线获得如此地位实属非凡。

All the same, Mr Sarkozy will take comfort from the result, which is likely to hand his party a sweeping victory in the second round. Hitherto the ex-president's political comeback had been faltering. Mr Sarkozy was elected UMP chief last November on the back of a lower-than-expected score, and has struggled to convince a divided party and its centre-right voters that he is the leader of the future. The latest result will strengthen his hand, and his chances of securing the party's presidential nomination for elections in 2017.
而此结果依然会让萨科齐感到欣慰，它有可能在第二轮投票中促成其政党大获全胜。至今，这位前任总统是否会东山再起仍是不定之事。去年十一月，萨科齐在票数低于预期的情况下当选人民运动联盟主席，他经百般努力，试图让这个四分五裂的政党及其中右翼派选民相信他是未来的领导者。最新投票结果将增强其影响力，加大其稳获2017年总统大选党内提名的机会。

As for President Fran?ois Hollande, the result was a downright humiliation, however much Mr Valls tried to argue otherwise. The Socialists are set for crushing losses in the second round–they have lost every mid-term election since Mr Hollande took office. This election exposes a cruel calculation on the left, as the party turns its eyes towards 2017. The Socialists' poor score reflects a failure in most constituencies to join up with the Greens and other parties of the left. If the party has any hope of making it into the presidential run-off in 2017, it needs friends. Yet the ideological differences between the moderates around Mr Valls and the rest of the French left have never looked so wide, nor the chances of bridging them so slim.
对弗朗索瓦·奥朗德总统来说，无论瓦尔斯总理怎样另找说辞，选举结果绝对是一大耻辱。社会党准备好在第二轮中迎接彻底的失败——自奥朗德执政以来，在所有的中期选举中，社会党无一胜出。虽然该党将目光转向2017年，但这次省议会选举暴露了盘算左翼派的残忍方法。社会党赢得的可怜票数反映出其未能联合在大部分选区的绿党和左翼派其他政党。如果该党希望参加2017年的总统决选，那么它需要朋友。然而，瓦尔斯总理身边的温和派与法国左翼派其他人士之间的意识形态从未产生过如此大的差异，而减少差异的机会也是前所未有的渺茫。