经济学人下载:同性恋投票 公之于众

The gay vote
同性恋投票

Coming out
公之于众

The Conservative Party is winning over some gay voters
保守党争取到一些同性恋的投票

True pink
纯粉色

WHEN the Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, decided to champion same-sex marriage in 2011, many of his backbenchers were horrified. The pledge was not in his manifesto; the softer aspects of his election campaign were more focused on green issues and helping wayward youths than on gay rights. When, in 2014, the act passed into law, 133 Conservatives voted against it and many disgruntled activists left the party. But, as he seeks re-election, Mr Cameron's gamble may gradually be paying off.
2011年，保守党人戴维·卡梅伦首相决定声援同性婚姻，震惊后座议员一片。他在竞选宣言中并没有承诺于此，且在竞选活动中宣传的主要是环保问题、叛逆青年的引导等相对温和的问题，而不是同性恋的权利。2014年，维护同性恋结婚权利的法案纳入英国法律，对此，133名保守党成员纷纷投票表示反对，更有激进者，因心怀不满退出保守党。然而，如今在卡梅伦努力追求连任时，其之前的冒险可能会渐现成效。

Around 6% of the British population are estimated to be gay. But little definitive statistical evidence exists on how they vote, says Joe Twyman, of YouGov, a pollster. Generally, he says, they tend to be slightly less fond of the Conservatives than is the population as a whole, and slightly more likely to support Labour or the bedraggled Liberal Democrats. In a YouGov poll of gay, lesbian and bisexual people last year, two-thirds of those asked said that they would not vote for an MP who had voted against same-sex marriage (the other third said they would). But it is not their biggest concern: like the broader population, the economy and health care are the most pressing issues, says Mr Twyman.
据估计，英国同性恋人口约占6%。但民治调查公司专家乔·特乌曼表示，并没有确切的统计数据显示这一群体的投票方式。他认为，一般情况下，同性恋人群支持保守党的意向略低于英国人整体的意向，而支持工党或衰败的自由民主党的可能性略大。民治公司去年对男女同性恋、双性恋人群进行了调查，调查显示：2/3的参与者表示不会把票投给曾经投票反对同性婚姻的议员（1/3的参与者表示会投给这些议员）。但特乌曼专家表示，这不是这一人群最担心的事情，像人口分布扩大，经济发展以及医疗服务才是最紧迫的问题。

Yet the passing of the same-sex marriage act seems to have given David Cameron and some members of his party, such as the gay-friendlyLondonmayor Boris Johnson (pictured), a boost. “It made me less anti-Tory,” admits Tom Chinnery, a 32-year-old from Manchesterwho married his husband six weeks ago. Mr Chinnery was struck by Mr Cameron “standing up” to more traditional party members. His disagreement with the Tories is now restricted to their policies on Europe and the economy. This may help the Conservatives: a self-selected poll of 986 people from PinkNews, a website, in April found that 26% would consider voting for the Conservatives, up from 21% in 2010.
话虽如此，同性婚姻法案纳入法律对卡梅伦以及乐意接受同性恋的伦敦市长鲍里斯·约翰逊（如图）等党内部分成员来说似乎是一大鼓励。32岁的汤姆·钦纳里是曼彻斯特人，6周前和丈夫结婚。卡梅伦顶住多数保守党人压力的表现触动了钦纳里，他承认道：“因为这个，我对保守党的反对没那么强烈了。”粉红社网在四月份对986名同性恋人士进行了选项调查，结果发现，26%的人会考虑把票投给保守党，与2010年的21%相比有所增加。这对保守党来说也许有益。

The change in the law also made those who had previously voted for the party feel more confident to continue doing so, argues Margot James, the Conservative MP for Stourbridge, who is gay. The passing of the act, along with more funds for tackling homophobic bullying in schools, “redressed the balance with Labour”, she says. Differences between the two parties over questions of gay rights and equality have become less marked as a result.
保守党驻斯陶尔布里奇选区议员玛格特·詹姆斯是同性恋，她认为：法律上的变动让之前投票支持保守党的人坚定了继续支持该党的信心，法案入法，不仅增加了学校处理同性恋遭欺辱事件的资金支持，而且重新调整了与工党之间的平衡关系。同时，两党质疑同性恋权利与平等的程度差异也因此有所减少。

But perhaps the biggest boost for the party is yet to come. After the same-sex marriage vote, Philip Cowley, a psephologist at the University of Nottingham, worked out that 58% of Conservative MPs born after 1970 voted for it, in contrast to 45% of those born before that year. Younger people are more likely to be socially liberal and to support same-sex marriage. Undecided future voters are less likely to see the Conservatives as the nasty party on gay issues. And gay people who might once have been furtive in voting for them can now be bolder about their choice. After all, for some, coming out as a Conservative may once have been as hard as coming out as gay.
诺丁汉大学选举学家菲利普·克劳利在分析同性恋婚姻的投票结果之后发现，58%的70后保守党议员投票支持，而与之相比，45%的70前议员投票支持。相对年轻的人群更易接受开放的社会，支持同性婚姻。未来选民还未确定，但极有可能不愿看到保守党在同性恋问题上让其不快。以前，同性恋人群投票支持保守党还要遮遮掩掩，但是现在，他们可以大胆地作出选择。毕竟，对于有些人来说，代表保守党崭露头角曾经也是如同性恋出柜一般艰难。