经济学人下载:房产问题 为何怨声载道?

China
亚洲中国

Housing
房产

Why grumble?
为何怨声载道？

silver lining to the housing cloud
房产疑云的一线希望

JUST how bad is China's housing bubble? One important measure—the most important for those trying to get a foot on the property ladder—is affordability. Many believe that Chinese housing prices have soared well beyond the reach of ordinary people. There is some truth to that. But a closer look at the data reveals a more complex picture. The Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company, created a city-level index to track the relation between housing prices and incomes across China. Two points stand out.
中国房地产泡沫有多严重？要衡量这个问题，经济可承受性是一重要指标，它是人们试图在购买住宅的重中之重。许多人相信，中国的房屋价格飙升到了一个常人难以企及的地步。这大约是正确的。不过对数据的进一步观察揭示了一个更为复杂的局面。我们的兄弟公司，经济学人智库开发了一个基于城市层面的指数，它可以追踪中国房价与收入的关系。有两点十分引人注目。

First, the country's biggest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations of more than 10m, are in a class of their own in terms of unaffordability (see chart; for full results go to our website). Homes are markedly cheaper in almost all slightly smaller cities, even though they have millions of residents. The price of a 100-square-metre house is on average 14-fold higher than annual household incomes in mega-cities. For cities with populations of less than 10m, the price to income ratio is eight. It thus makes sense for China's cities to tailor their housing policies to their own needs; some must focus on building more subsidised homes, while others need to attract new residents to occupy their many homes now standing empty.
首先，中国诸如北京、上海此类的大城市拥有超过1千万的人口，他们处于无法负担房价的那个层次（如表所示；去我们的网站可以看到完整版）。几乎所有的较小城市中，即使拥有几百万人口，房价也要明显地便宜。在大城市里，一处100平方米的住宅价格平均超过了家庭年收入的14倍。那些人口少于1000万的城市，房价与收入的比率是8。因此，中国的城市为了迎合他们自身的需求而调整房屋政策是一件有意义的事情；一些城市必须注重经济适用房的建设，同时其他城市需要吸引新居民去消费大量空房。

Second, regardless of city size, housing has become more affordable over the past four years throughout China. At the peak, in April 2010, house prices on average were nearly 12 times household incomes; that has dropped to less than nine times today. Prices are higher than in many developing countries, but they are not wildly divergent.
第二，不考虑城市的规模的情况下，纵观全国，过去四年中人们更加能负担得起住宅费用。2010年4月达到最顶峰，此时住宅售价是家庭年收入近12倍；这个比率已经降到如今的不足9倍。发展中国家的房价比较高，但是中国的房价比之其他发展中国家也高不了多少。

The apparent improvement in affordability does not tally with the perception of many Chinese. But the official price data used in constructing this index show that people are adjusting to high inner-city prices by buying homes that are ever farther from urban centres. That may not be especially painful: suburbs are increasingly well-connected by roads and railways.
经济可承受性的明显改善与中国人的感知并不完全相符。但是，我们的指标用上了官方的数据，这些数据显示人们通过购买远离市中心的住房来适应高昂的中心城区房价。这也许不会特别痛苦，因为市郊正越来越多地与大路和铁路紧密相连。

The bigger concern, especially in smaller cities, is that China suffers from an oversupply of housing. So many homes have been built that prices in such cities are now declining quickly relative to incomes. That is desirable. But a big, sudden rise in affordability could pose considerable risks to the financial system, which is heavily exposed to loans made to the property sector. So far, at least, China has yet to experience the pain of a property-market crash.
另外有一个大问题，中国面临着住宅供大于求的糟糕局面，特别是在较小的城市中。这么多的住房竣工落成，而这些城市里的房价正相对于收入迅速下跌。这本让人高兴不已。但是经济可承受性短时间内大幅度的升高会对金融系统造成相当大的风险，特别是那些投放在房地产市场的贷款。到目前为止，至少还没有历经房地产崩溃的痛苦。