经济学人下载:苏格兰的民族情怀 烦心乱意

Scottish nationalism
苏格兰的民族情怀

Thistles and thorns
烦心乱意

What the Scottish National Party will try to do in Westminster
苏格兰民族党在议会中的举动意欲何在

WITH hardly a glimpse of tartan, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), presented her squad of 56 MPs at the House of Commons on May 11th (although she herself is not one of them). Their increased numbers—the SNP won all but three Scottish seats—represented a victory beyond most nationalists' dreams. Yet their modest demeanour suggested that, for now, they have come to London to do business, not to cause chaos.
5月11日，支持苏格兰民族党（SNP）的56名国会议员（与其他选区相比，属于小队人马，且不包括斯特金本文）在该党领袖妮古拉·斯特金的陪同下出席下议院议会，斯特金此次未穿格子呢服装。支持民族党人数的增加表示民族党获得了大部分民族党成员梦寐以求的胜利。这些国会议员举止彬彬，显示出此次伦敦之行是为正事而来，并非蓄意捣乱。

A decade ago the scale of the SNP's success would have been seen as a mandate for independence. Alex Salmond, Ms Sturgeon's predecessor, drew that conclusion again. But Ms Sturgeon claims separation is not high on her agenda. She has even played down the idea of a speedy introduction of full fiscal autonomy, seeking only a promise from Westminster to start handing more powers to Scotland.
苏格兰民族党此次赢得选区多数议员的支持，这在十年以前可能预示着全民授权并支持民族独立。民族党前任领袖亚历克斯·萨蒙德亦有同感。但斯特金夫人声称，她现在的工作重点不是民族独立。对于加快实现财政完全自主的计划，她一直是轻描淡写，自己别无所求，只愿英国政府承下一诺，赋予苏格兰更多自治权。

Part of the reason for the more cautious tone is that the collapsing oil price and the decline of offshore revenues has made independence seem like a dubious proposition. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent think-tank, calculates that, under full tax autonomy,Scotland would need to find an additional 7.6 billion (12 billion) to close its deficit to British levels, a gap it reckons will widen to 9.7 billion, or 4.9% of Scottish GDP, by 2019-20. To accept tax autonomy without continuing to receive the substantial subsidy Scotland currently gets from the Treasury is “tantamount to economic suicide”, says George Kerevan, an SNP politician.
斯特金请求的语气增添了几分谨慎，究其原因，一是因为：在石油价格狂跌、近海工程收益减少的情况下要求独立，未免少些理直气壮，多些未知冒险。据英国财政研究所（非官方智囊团）统计，如果苏格兰实现税收完全自主，欲达到英国政府的赤字水平，需另外拿出76亿英镑（折合美元120亿）以弥补空缺。该机构认为，英格兰与国家的赤字差距到2019至2020年间会扩大到97亿英镑，占英格兰GDP的4.9%。苏格兰民主党成员乔治·克瑞文表示：“英国财政部目前给予苏格兰大量财政补贴，如果苏格兰实现税收自主，且终止补贴，这无异于断送苏格兰经济的发展前程。”

Another explanation for the caution is that, after last September's independence referendum, in which 55% of Scots voted to remain part of Britain, David Cameron, the prime minister, promised to give Scotland new fiscal powers. Over the next five years the Scottish government is due to gain control of earned-income taxes, air-passenger duty and a levy on aggregates such as sand and gravel. It will also be assigned the revenues of the first ten percentage points of value-added tax and oversee around 2.5 billion, or about 15%, of welfare spending. The IFS reckons this will make Ms Sturgeon responsible for raising about half of what her government spends.
斯特金话语谨慎的另一个原因在于，去年九月份全民公投决定苏格兰独立与否，55%的苏格兰人投票反对，英国首相戴维·卡梅伦至此承诺赋予苏格兰新的财权。今后五年，苏格兰政府有望实现收入所得税、航空旅客税、使用沙土碎石等统一征收税的自主征收。同时，增值税首次征收的10%的收入归苏格兰政府所有，并负责监管约25亿英镑的福利支出（约占总支出的15%）。财政研究所认为斯特金夫人为此需要增加苏格兰政府半数支出费用的收入。

She and her party nonetheless could, and probably will, give Mr Cameron a headache. Though not rushing now to achieve it in full, Ms Sturgeon has made clear that she wants even more fiscal control. She would like to oversee most welfare spending, as well as corporation tax and national-insurance payments. The SNP hopes to reduce employers' contributions to national insurance in order to compensate for raising the minimum wage. Ms Sturgeon wants the floor to rise from 6.50 per hour now to 8.70 by 2020. This, she says, would enable her to boost the economy, reduce the deficit and move towards full tax autonomy more quickly.
然而，斯特金夫人为首的政党可能会让卡梅伦首相忧心苦恼，“噩梦”成真。她虽不急于获得财长全部自主的权利，但其事先已明确表示欲取得更多财权。她有意监管福利支出的多数费用，以及企业所得税、国民保险费。苏格兰民族党希望减少雇主缴纳的国民保险费，从而借此提高最低工资水平。斯特金夫人希冀，至2020年英格兰人的酬劳从每小时6.5英镑涨到每小时8.7英镑。她认为，这一计划不仅有助于繁荣经济，减少财政赤字，还会推动税收完全自主计划早日实现。

The new SNP intake can also be expected to make full use of their privileges as the third-largest party at Westminster. MPs will pose tricky questions and use committee chairmanships to harry the government, especially over austerity. Ms Sturgeon argues that such actions would not just be on behalf of Scots but for all Britons. She sees Labour entering “a period of introspection” and claims the SNP will be “the principal opposition” in Westminster.
另外，据预计，拥护苏格兰民族党的新晋议员会充分利用民族党在英国议会作为第三大政党的优势。各位国会议员届时抛出棘手话题，凭借议会主席的地位为难政府，尤其是在财政紧缩问题上大做文章。斯特金夫人表示，他们如此行为不仅仅是为了苏格兰，更是为了维护英国的整体利益。她认为工党进入了“反省期”，苏格兰民族党在议会中会坐占“第一大反对党”的位置。

This leaves Labour in a bind over whether to position itself to the SNP's right or left. But it also poses a dilemma for Mr Cameron. He could concede to what the SNP wants, in order to avert further fracturing between Scotland and England—but that would imply the Scots were right to elect them. Or he could dig in and allow himself to be caricatured as the Scots' enemy. Either way, Ms Sturgeon looks to be sitting pretty.
工党为此左右为难，对于民族党不知是支持，还是反对。“无独有偶”，卡梅伦首相亦不知如何是好。他可以遂民族党所愿，以免加深英格兰与苏格兰之间的隔隙。但这等于承认苏格兰人民选民族党执政为正确之举。如若不然，他可以“变本加厉”，在讽刺漫画中与苏格兰相互敌视。无论卡梅伦选择哪种道路，斯特金夫人都显得坐镇不乱。