经济学人下载:油气 残酷之海

Oil and gas
油气

The cruel sea
残酷之海

The government tries to block a Russian investment in the North Sea
政府试图阻止俄罗斯在北海投资

THE business climate in Britain's oil and gas industry is as daunting as the winter weather in the North Sea. Even before the oil-price fall last year, elderly fields were depleting fast and new finds were scarce. The regulatory regime favours the existing owners of platforms and pipelines and deters newcomers. Now the industry, which employs 450,000 people and pays almost 5 billion (7.7 billion) in taxes a year, faces the worst outlook in 40 years. Exploration has slowed sharply; job losses are rising.
英国油气工业的商业环境正如北海的冬日气候一样令人生畏。即使是在去年油价下降之前，老油田的资源也在快速减少，新开发的油田又屈指可数。管理制度对现存油气平台和管道的业主予以厚待，却使新来者望之却步。如今这拥有450，000雇员、每年缴纳近50亿英镑（77亿美元）的行业面临着40年来最糟的前景。油田探寻速度急速放缓，失业率正在上升。

So one might think that a wealthy foreign investor would be welcome. LetterOne, a Luxembourg-based investment fund run by Mikhail Fridman, a Russian tycoon, this week paid 5.1 billion (3.6 billion, 5.6 billion) to buy 12 oil- and gasfields belonging to RWE, an ailing German energy conglomerate, with the possibility of more investment to come. But the British government is trying to force Mr Fridman to sell the assets to a third party. Future sanctions imposed by America on Russia could, it fears, stop operations, entailing economic losses or safety risks.
因此人们也许认为富有的国外投资者将受到欢迎。俄罗斯大亨米哈伊尔·弗里德曼在卢森堡运营着一个名为LetterOne的投资基金会，该基金会本周出资51亿欧元（36亿英镑，56亿美元）来购买隶属于RWE（一境况不佳的德国能源企业）的12个油气田，并且未来可能还会投入更多资金。但英国政府正在试图迫使弗里德曼先生将这些资产售卖给第三方。政府担心美国未来对俄罗斯做出的制裁可能会中止运营、导致经济损失或带来安全风险。

The decision seems odd. Mr Fridman had instituted what someone close to the deal calls “belt and braces” safeguards to protect production in the event of new sanctions. For the first year, ownership reverts automatically to RWE. After that, a Dutch foundation takes over.
这个决定看起来莫名其妙。弗里德曼先生创立了被相关人士称为”腰带和背带（双重策略）“的保障措施，万一受到了新的制裁，可以用来保护产品。第一年，所有权自动返回到了RWE那里。在那之后，被一个荷兰基金会接管。

Moreover, Mr Fridman is hardly a Kremlin crony. This weekend he flew from London to Moscow to attend the funeral of Boris Nemtsov, the murdered opposition leader (the rest of Russia's business elite was mostly notable by its absence). Britain's biggest energy company, BP, has a controversial but so far lucrative partnership with Rosneft, the main Russian oil company, which is close to the Kremlin. The risk of that relationship going wrong should be a rather greater worry.
另外，弗里德曼先生很难被称为是克林姆宫的密友。本周末，他从伦敦飞往莫斯科参加被谋杀的反对党领导鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫的葬礼(值得注意的是其余俄罗斯商业精英的缺席)。英国最大的能源公司BP与Roseneft有着存在争议但到目前为止还算有利可图的合作关系，Roseneft是俄罗斯主要的油气公司，与克林姆宫关系密切。这段合作关系变质的风险应该是更值得担忧的问题。

Another oddity is that the man Mr Fridman has chosen to chair LetterOne's energy division, Lord (John) Browne, is a former boss of BP. He piloted the company through a bruising battle over strategy with its previous Russian partners, TNK, a firm in which Mr Fridman happened to be a leading shareholder. That tussle does not seem to have left lasting scars. Lord Browne's recent memoir describes Mr Fridman as “civil and charming”, “tough and hardworking”, a “superb negotiator” and “extremely focused”.
另一个古怪的地方是弗里德曼指定担任LetterOne能源部门主席的人，（约翰）布朗勋爵，他是BP的前总裁。他曾带领公司与前俄罗斯合作伙伴TNK就战略方面的问题进行了一番争斗，而弗里德曼正巧是TNK的主要股东之一。那场争斗似乎没有留下长久的疤痕。布朗勋爵最近的回忆录是这样描写弗里德曼的：“文明且有魅力”、“坚韧且勤奋”，是一名“极好的谈判者”，“极度专注”。

Mr Fridman threatened to go to court, calling the government's objections to the deal belated, hurried and irrational. On March 4th the energy minister, Ed Davey, backtracked, giving Mr Fridman a week to make his case.
弗里德曼威胁要诉诸法庭，号召政府反对这迟来、仓促且不理智的政策。3月4号，能源大臣爱德·达维松口给弗里德曼一个星期的时间来处理案件。

A bigger worry should be the future of the North Sea. Britain's regime, unlike Norway's, does not encourage oilmen to keep going in lean years. Statoil, the state-owned Norwegian company, has just invested 9 billion in the first phase of the new Johan Sverdrup field, which will by 2025 produce more than all Britain's wells. Collapsing confidence now could leave six billion barrels of oil stranded, says Sir Ian Wood, a veteran industry-watcher.
北海的未来才应该是更大的担忧。英国海域与挪威不同，不鼓励石油商在歉收年继续开采。挪威国有企业Statoil刚对新的Johan Sverdrup油田第一阶段开采投入了90亿，这片油田到2025年将会产出比英国所有油田更多的资源。经验丰富的产业观察家伊恩·伍德阁下说，如今逐渐崩溃的信心可能让60亿桶原油开采搁浅。

True, some of the industry's woes are of its own making, such as grotesquely inflated wage costs (now shrinking fast) and complacency (punctured). But others are the result of haphazard policymaking (14 energy ministers in 17 years) and high, complex taxation, such as a supplementary levy introduced by George Osborne, the chancellor, in 2011. The marginal tax rate on some production is as much as 80%.
的确，该工业的某些灾难是咎由自取，比如说荒唐膨胀的工资成本（如今正在快速缩水）还有它的自鸣得意（被深深刺痛）。但其他的灾难就是颟顸决策（17年来换过14任能源大臣）以及高价、繁杂课税的结果了，比如说，财政大臣乔治·奥斯本于2011年出台的一项补充课税。一些产品的边际税率竟高达80%。

The government is tweaking the tax regime, offering companies the chance to offset more losses against costs. It is offering to pay part of the multi-billion pound decommissioning bill. Perhaps it should be a bit nicer to foreigners wanting to risk their cash in the North Sea's bracing climate.
政府正在对税制进行调整，给了公司通过减少支出来抵消更多损失的机会。它提出要部分支付数万亿英镑的停工账单。也许它应该对那些想在北海透心凉气候中一掷千金的外国人友好一些。