经济学人下载:卫星 下一个太空

Leaders Satellites Space: the next startup frontier
社论精粹 卫星 太空：下一个

Where nanosats boldly go, new businesses will follow—unless they are smothered with excessive regulations
微型卫星大胆地去哪儿，新的商业就会跟去哪儿—除非他们受到过度监管的阻碍

AROUND 1,000 operational satellites are circling the Earth, some of them the size and weight of a large car. In the past year they have been joined by junior offspring: 100 or so small satellites, some of them made up of one or more 10cm (4-inch) cubes. They may be tiny, but each is vastly more capable than Sputnik, the first man-made satellite launched by Russia in 1957. And many more are coming.
大约1000颗运转着的卫星正围绕着地球旋转，其中有些卫星的体积和重量和汽车差不多。去年，初级后代加入了他们的队伍：100颗左右的小卫星，他们中有些是由一个或多个10厘米（4英尺）的立方体组成。他们可能很小，但是他们每个都比1957年前苏联发射的首颗人造卫星Sputnik功能性强得多。而且还有更多这样的卫星即将面世。

Space hardware used to cost so much that it was available only to generals, multinationals and the most privileged scientists. No more. Many of these nanosats, as small satellites weighing no more than a few kilograms are called, have been launched for small companies, startups and university departments, sometimes with finance raised on crowdfunding websites. Their construction costs can be down in the tens of thousands of dollars, which makes them thousands of times cheaper than today's big satellites. Admittedly, there is much they cannot do, but with that sort of price differential, and some ingenious use of the abilities they do have, they could be surprisingly competitive players on a number of fronts. In the next five years another 1,000 nanosats are expected to be launched.
过去，太空硬件太贵了，只有将军，跨国公司和最享有特权的科学家才能有权使用。没有其他人有权使用。许多这种微型卫星——由于小卫星质量不超过几千克而得此名——已经提供给小公司、新创办的公司和大学一些系发射，有时在集体融资网站集资。他们的制造成本可以降低好几万美元，这使得他们比目前的大卫星便宜成千上万倍。不可否认的，这些卫星有许多办不了的事儿，但是在那种价格差下，加以巧妙使用他们已有的功能，他们可以在许多方面出乎意料地成为有竞争力的选手。在接下来的五年，还有1000颗微型卫星有望被发射出去。

Two trends are setting up nanosats for further success. Like people working on everything from robots to 3D printers, nanosat builders are harvesting the benefits of ever better, ever cheaper components built for smartphones and other consumer electronics. Some nanosats even contain complete smartphones, making use of the clever operating systems, radios and cameras which phones now contain. For as long as phones go on getting cheaper and more capable, so will nanosats. The cheapest so far—a tiny chipsat—was assembled for just $25, though it has yet to be successfully launched.
两个趋势为微型卫星进一步的成功奠定了基础。就像从研究机器人到3D打印的人们一样，微型卫星的制造者从智能手机和其他家用电子产品中获得了更廉价更好的元件。有些微型卫星甚至装有整个手机装置，利用手机目前现有的智能的操作系统、电台和照相机功能。只要手机在一直降价并且越来越智能化，微型卫星也会同样变便宜并且更智能。目前最便宜的——微型芯片卫星——只花了25美元进行配置，尽管它暂时还没有被成功发射出去。

The launch systems too are getting much cheaper. SpaceX, the innovative rocket-maker founded by Elon Musk, has already brought down the costs of getting into space; it and its competitors could reduce them a lot further. The biggest beneficiaries will at first be people who make big satellites. But more big satellites will mean more opportunities for small satellites to piggy-back on their launches. And some companies are looking at cheap little launch systems tailored specifically to the needs of the nanosatellite. One reason space engineers are notoriously conservative is that the costs of failure are high. As making and launching satellites gets cheaper, it will be ever easier for innovative, risk-taking nanosat-makers to orbit around the lumbering incumbents.
发射系统也越来越便宜了。伊隆?马斯克创办的创新火箭制造公司太空探索技术公司已经降低了发射卫星到太空的成本了，该公司及其竞争对手可以进一步降低发射成本。最大的受益人首先就是制造大型卫星的人。但是越多大型卫星发射就意味着越多的机会给小卫星。一些公司在研究廉价小型发射系统专用于满足微型卫星的需求。太空工程师出了名的保守一个原因是失败的代价太高。随着制造和发射卫星越来越便宜，微型卫星制造者就越容易进行创新和冒险环绕XX运行。

Size does impose limits. Nanosats cannot peer as closely at the Earth or carry out as many experiments as big satellites. But for some jobs that does not matter. The plans that companies already have include using nanosats for monitoring crops, studying the sun and tracking ships and aircraft. Such a system might have been able to track Malaysian Airlines flight MH370, which went missing in March.
体积确实会产生限制。微型卫星不能像大型卫星一样把地球看得那么仔细，也不能像大型卫星一样进行那么多实验。但是对有些工作来说，体积并不重要。公司现有的计划包括用微型卫星监控农作物，研究太阳和追踪船只和飞机。这种系统可能可以追踪三月份失踪的马航MH370。

Nano can do
微型卫星可以做到

Yet not everyone is thrilled. One worry is that constellations of nanosats will mean a big increase in space junk; but, operating in low-Earth orbit, they burn up on re-entry after a year or so. And being cheap, they can soon be replaced with newer models. A more serious concern is that they are a “dual-use” technology: they could be used for military purposes. In America this has led to onerous restrictions.
但是没有人很兴奋。其中一个担忧是一群微型卫星就意味着太空垃圾大量增加，但是，如果在近地轨道运行，这些卫星就会烧掉或者一年后重新进入轨道。因为便宜，这些卫星可以很快被更新的型号取代。更应该关注的是他们是“军民两用”的技术：这些卫星也可以用于军事用途。在美国，这个引发了麻烦的限制。

Barack Obama's administration has sensibly repealed a law of 1999 that required all satellites to be licensed by the State Department as munitions under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). This could mean that most commercial satellites will be removed from ITAR by the end of the year and their export administered by the Commerce Department. But some satellite systems and spacecraft—including anything that can carry people into space—will remain under ITAR.
巴拉克?奥巴马的政府明智地撤销了1999年的一项法规，这项法规规定所有的卫星都要遵循《国际武器贸易条例》，作为军需品通过国务院授权。这可能意味着嘴商业化的卫星将于今年年底从国际武器贸易条例中去除，并且他们的出口受商务部管理。但是一些卫星系统和飞机——包括一切可以载人进入太空的东西—还是要遵循《国际武器贸易条例》。

Care needs to be taken with military kit, but America's regulations still seem excessive. A regular review to distinguish between systems that pose a real threat and ones that don't would be a help, as would better intelligence. Tight restrictions on new technologies will not work, and will damage America's interests: exciting new ventures like nanosats will simply move to countries from which they can be launched with greater ease.
军用装备需要小心，但是美国的条例看起来还是过分了。定期检查区分形成真正威胁的系统和没有形成威胁的系统会有效，还会更明智。对新技术的严格限制不会有用，还会损害美国的利益：像微型卫星那样令人兴奋的新冒险只会转移到发射更容易的国家去。