经济学人下载:足球大决战的教训 巴西需要新的想法

Bello
贝优

Lessons of a footballing Armageddon
足球大决战的教训

Brazil needs new ideas, on and off the pitch
巴西需要新的想法，无论是场内还是场外

THE only previous time that Brazil hosted the World Cup, in 1950, it famously lost the final 2-1 to Uruguay, after shipping two goals in 13 minutes late in the second half. So deflated were Brazilians that Nelson Rodrigues, a playwright and journalist, described the occasion as a “national catastrophe…our Hiroshima”.
1950年，巴西第一次也是此前唯一一次举办世界杯，经历了非常著名的一次失败，2:1输给了乌拉圭，比赛下半场乌拉圭在13分钟内进球2个。灰心的巴西剧作家兼记者Nelson Rodrigues把这次失败形容为“国家灾难。。。我们的广岛”。

If that is the benchmark, then the 7-1 semi-final thrashing on July 8th at the hands of Germany in Belo Horizonte's Mineir?o stadium was Brazil's Armageddon. It was not just the scale of defeat—the worst since 1920. It was also the manner in which Germany's fast and technically superior players cut through the home defence, as easily as a machete through cassava. To rub salt in a gaping wound, it is Argentina—Brazil's arch-rivals—who will face Germany in the final on July 13th.
如果以那次失败作为标准，那么7月8号在贝洛奥里藏特体育场举办的对德国的半决赛，7:1的比分无疑是巴西世界末日。它不仅是自1920年以来在比分上最大的一次惨败，更体现在风格上，德国速度技术俱佳的球员穿过巴西的主防线轻松地亦如用大刀割木薯。巴西的主要竞争对手阿根廷将在7月13号的决赛上面对德国，这无疑是伤口上撒盐。

This humiliation has left Brazilians shell-shocked. No other country in the world has a closer identification with football, as Rodrigues's hyperbole highlights. That may partly be because Brazil has no real Hiroshimas to fear: apart from brief engagement on the Allied side in Italy in 1944-45, it has not fought a war since the 1860s (against Paraguay). Through good fortune and tolerance, it faces neither military threats, nor terrorism, nor ethnic or religious tensions.
这次羞辱让巴西人身心俱疲。正如罗德里格斯强调的一样，世界上没有一个国家对足球这么近的认同感。部分原因可能是因为巴西没有像广岛那样真的恐惧感：除了1944—1945年简单的接触了盟军中的意大利，自1860年代以来就没有战争（对症乌拉圭）。得益于好运和容忍，巴西既不需要面临战争威胁，也不需要面对恐怖主义，更不用说宗教和种族的紧张局势。

But this identification with football is also because the sport has provided a national narrative and a social glue. In a country that for long periods has failed to live up to its potential, prowess at the game provided “a confidence in ourselves that no other institution has given Brazil to the same extent”, as Roberto DaMatta, an anthropologist, wrote in the 1980s. Brazil has won five World Cups but no Brazilian has won a Nobel prize.
但是对足球的这种认同感也是因为这个运动为国家和社会提供了一种凝聚力。人类学家Roberto DaMatta在19世纪80年代写到，在一个长时期未能发挥其潜力和威力的国家，从足球游戏中得到了一种自信，这种自信的程度是其他任何机构都不可能给予的。巴西曾经5次获得世界杯冠军但没有一个巴西人获得过诺贝尔奖。

In winning the right to host this year's World Cup (and the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016) Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's then president, wanted to highlight that the country now has other reasons for confidence beyond football. The tournament would showcase the planet's seventh-largest economy, a vibrant democracy and remarkable social progress that has seen poverty and income inequality fall steadily in this century.
通过成功获得今年世界杯和2016年里约热内卢奥运会的举办权，巴西前任总统路易斯?伊纳西奥?卢拉?达席尔瓦试图强调现在的巴西在足球之外有其他的理由值得自信。世界杯将展示这个星球的第七大经济体，一个充满活力且有显著进步的民主社会，一个在本世纪贫穷和收入不平等稳步下降的社会。

But the tournament has taken place just as Brazilians are feeling less confident about their country's course. The economy has slowed to a crawl; inflation is at 6.5%, despite a succession of interest-rate rises. The 11 billion of publicly financed spending on stadiums helped to trigger huge protests last year over poor public services, corruption and the misplaced priorities of politicians. The last-minute rush to complete the stadiums, and the tragic collapse of a newly-built flyover in Belo Horizonte this month, have highlighted Brazil's difficulties with infrastructure projects.
但是本次世界杯恰逢巴西人对于国家进程感到信心不足的时候举办。经济滞缓，尽管一连串利率上浮通货膨胀仍达到6.5%。耗资110亿美元公共支出用于场馆建设推波助澜了去年针对糟糕的公共服务、腐败、和不知轻重缓急的政治家的大型抗议活动。最后时刻才匆忙完成场馆建设，本月贝洛哈里桑塔新建的立交桥发生悲剧性的坍塌，凸显了巴西基础设施项目的困难。

Contrary to some forecasts, the event itself has gone smoothly, without transport breakdowns or significant protests. Predictably, most fans have had a great time. Polls showed that Brazilians were warming to the idea of hosting the tournament. Despite being booed at the opening ceremony, Dilma Rousseff, Lula's successor and protégée, had felt emboldened to announce that she would attend the final.
和一些预测相反，比赛顺利进行，没有发生交通崩溃和大型的抗议活动。可以预见的是，大部分球迷有了一个欢乐的时光。民调显示巴西人对于举办世界杯的想法正在变得缓和。尽管在开幕式的时候被喝倒彩，卢拉的继任者迪尔玛·罗塞夫大胆宣布她将出席决赛。

Brazil's shattering defeat has robbed Ms Rousseff of any hope she might have nurtured that the World Cup would provide her with a boost in an election in October at which she will seek a second term. But in itself it will not help the opposition either. Things are not as simple as that. Brazilians were always going to have other matters on their mind when they vote in three months' time. The incumbent president won in 1998 when Brazil lost badly in the World Cup final, after all; and his chosen successor lost in 2002 when Brazil won.
巴西的惨败剥夺了罗塞夫试图通过世界杯帮助她在11月的总统连任竞选上获得人气提升的任何希望。但是它本身也不会有利于反对派。事情并不那么简单。巴西人在三个月的投票期总是会有其他事情干扰他们的想法。毕竟，现任总统在1998年赢得了选举，那时巴西在世界杯决赛中输的很惨。但是在2002年他的继任者输掉了选举，那时巴西拿到了大力神杯。

At a deeper level, however, the humiliation of the Mineir?o is likely to reinforce the country's negative mood. And that is potentially dangerous for Ms Rousseff. Though polls still make her the favourite, the campaign will only now start in earnest. Her approval rating hovers barely above 40%, and polls consistently show between 60% and 70% of Brazilians wanting change. With her centre-left Workers' Party having been in power for 12 years, can she offer it? Her appeal is in essence to past achievements—to a huge rise in employment and real wages, both of which are only just starting to move into reverse.
但是，在更深的层面，米内罗体育场的羞辱很有可能加强国家的负面情绪。这对罗塞夫来说是潜在的危险。尽管民调显示她仍然是最受欢迎的，但是战役现在才开始真正打响。她的支持率勉强在40%以上徘徊，民调持续显示60%到70%的巴西人希望改变。左翼工人党已经执政12年，她还能续写它吗？她的最大竞争力本质上是过往取得的成功—就业和实际工资水平的大幅提升，而这两项恰巧开始反转。

Similarly, the Mineir?o disaster showed that Brazilian football is no longer a source of national confidence. It too needs changes that go far beyond building shiny new stadiums. Its officials are corrupt and its domestic league poorly run. Living on past glory, it is inward-looking and tactically outdated. Brazilians may end up concluding that they need new management and new ideas, both on and off the pitch.
同样，米内罗灾难显示巴西足球不再是国家信心的来源。巴西足球太需要改变，这种改变远远超出建造崭新的体育场。官员腐败，国内联赛经营不善，活在过去的荣光中，短视于国内，战术早已过时。巴西人最后可能会总结出，他们需要新的管理和新的思路，不论是在球场内还是球场外。