经济学人下载:安哥拉 依然很油腻

Angola
安哥拉

Still much too oily
依然很油腻

Angola badly needs to diversify its one-dimensional economy
安国急需多样化经济以取代单一经济体系

FROM the top of the Fortaleza de Sao Miguel, a 16th-century Portuguese citadel that once dominated the Angolan capital, you see an army of cranes erecting high-rise offices, fancy hotels and blocks of smart flats. Luanda's traffic zooms below on an eight-lane highway, as pedestrians amble among palm trees or play basketball on the Marginal, a renovated, spotless promenade. “You almost forget you are in sub-Saharan Africa,” says a foreign businessman well acquainted with the region.
在Fortaleza de Sao Miguel这座曾统治安哥拉首都的城堡上面，你可以看到一队起重机大军正在建造高大的办公厅、奢华的酒店和一幢幢精致的公寓。首都罗安达的交通在一条八车道的高速公路上尤为繁忙，行人们在Marginal这条新修筑的几乎完美地大街上的棕榈树下信步、打篮球。“差点忘了自己是在撒哈拉以南的非洲。”一位对该地区十分熟悉的外国商人如是说。

Such a view would have been unimaginable only 12 years ago when Angola's devastating 27-year civil war had just ended, leaving it a basket case. The economy and infrastructure were in tatters. Health and education systems barely existed.
如此的景象在十二年前是无法想象的，那时安哥拉刚刚结束持续了27年的毁灭性内战，留下了一堆烂摊子。国民经济和基础设施破坏殆尽。医疗系统教育系统几乎等于没有。

Since then the former Portuguese colony has grown rapidly thanks to oil. Crude production increased from 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) in 2003 to almost 2m b/d in 2008. The economy expanded by more than 10% a year, making it seem one of the most buoyant in the world. Today Angola's GDP is the fifth-biggest in Africa.
从那时开始，这个曾经为葡萄牙殖民地的国家在石油的帮助下迅速发展。原油产量从2003年的每天八十万桶增至2008年的约每天两百万桶。每年的经济增幅超过百分之十，这使安哥拉成为全世界经济增长最快的国家。如今安哥拉的GDP排名全非第五。

The pace of economic activity is frenetic. In downtown Luanda developers plan to put up still more skyscrapers and in July the first grand shopping mall is set to open its doors and tempt shoppers with Armani, Hugo Boss and Prada. In the rest of the country, the government is spending billions of dollars on roads, railways, airports and energy projects.
安哥拉的经济活力强大到狂热。在卢安达市区开发商们计划将更多地摩天大楼计划提上议案，而在七月份全市第一个超级市场即将开业，里面的阿玛尼、雨果博斯和普拉达等奢侈品品牌吸引着消费者们。在这个国家的其他地方，政府斥资数十亿美元修建公路、铁路、机场及能源设施。

Yet the days of sky-high growth are coming to an end. During and after a downturn in 2009 and 2010, caused by a crash in oil prices, Angolan policymakers were confident that the economy would quickly regain its swagger. But with oil output more or less stagnant since 2009, when it dropped to 1.8m b/d, the government has been forced to lower its expectations. Jose Eduardo dos Santos, the president since 1979, said in October that growth in 2013 would be 5.1%, well below the target of 7.1%. In fact it will end up at 4.1%, reckons the IMF.
不过，经济高增长的好日子即将到头。由于受到了2009、2010年油价大跌的影响，安哥拉进入了经济低迷期，而这个国家的决策者们自信本国的经济将很快重回正轨。然而2009年原油产量输出并不景气，所以当产量跌至每天一百八十万桶时，政府不得不降低它的预期。Jose Eduardo dos Santos这位自1979年连任至今的国家总统，在十月声明说2013年的增幅为百分之五点一，明显低于目标的百分之七点一。实际上据国际货币基金组织测算增幅仅仅为百分之四点一。

Nor is it expected to speed up again in the next few years. Most foreign analysts reckon that predictions by Sonangol, the state oil company, that production will return to 2m b/d next year are unrealistic. Many think 5% GDP growth will be Angola's lot for the time being.
安哥拉的经济也并不被期待能在近几年内再次崛起。国有石油公司Sonangol公司预测明年原油产量将恢复每天两百万桶，而此举被大多数国外分析家认为是不现实的。他们中许多人认为百分之五的GDP增幅将成为安哥拉现今的救命稻草。

This could herald big changes for the country. Crucially, it will press the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (known by its Portuguese acronym, MPLA) to do more to diversify the economy. Oil accounts for 97% of exports and almost 80% of state revenues. Last year the government posted its first budget deficit since 2009.
这也许预示了这个国家即将发生改变。最重要的是，这将迫使执政党——安哥拉人民解放运动（即为人所熟知的MPLA，葡文首字母缩写）采取更多手段来使经济多样化。石油产业产生了百分之九十七的出口贸易额和约百分之八十的国家税收收入。去年是政府自2009年首次公开预算赤字。

All the same, parts of the non-oil sector are thriving. The banking, telecoms, construction, drinks and retail industries are doing well, fuelled by the rise of a new (though still small) middle class. Manufacturing is picking up, from a very low base. The effects are beginning to be felt on the ground. Luanda, which ranks alongside Tokyo and London as one of the world's most expensive cities for expatriates, is becoming slightly cheaper. “I bought sliced mangoes in a supermarket for the equivalent of $1.50 the other day,” says a foreign banker. “Not long ago, they would have cost me $5.”
同样的，部分非石油行业也十分繁荣。银行业，电信业，建筑业，酿酒业和零售业均发展势头良好，因为这个国家新兴的中产阶级正在崛起（虽然数量不多）。制造业正在从非常低的基础开始发展。它们所产生的影响正在扩大。卢安达这座可以与世界上移民花费最贵的东京和伦敦比肩的城市正在变得越来越廉价。“有一天我在超市里买了价值1.5美元的芒果片，”一个外籍银行柜员说。“不久前，这些芒果片的价格是5美元。”

Greasy palms
油棕榈

Yet Angola remains a difficult place for investors and entrepreneurs. In the World Bank's latest “ease of doing business” survey, the country ranks 179th out of 189. Enforcing a contract through Angola's inefficient and sometimes corrupt courts can take years. Getting a visa is a hassle. A dire shortage of electricity means local firms struggle to compete with imported goods.
不过安哥拉依然是个对于投资者和企业家来说十分艰难的地方。在世界银行最近发起的“经商容易度”调查中，安哥拉从第189位上升至第179位。在安哥拉全国强制执行一项合同相率十分低下，而一件腐败案的审理有时能耗费数年。申请一纸签证困难重重。一次可怕的电力短缺意味着当地公司正在努力与进口商品进行竞争。

Moreover, a rentier culture forces many businesses to “partner” with members of the political and military elite. That the president's daughter, Isabel dos Santos, is Africa's first female billionaire is seen by human-rights groups as an indictment of the system.
此外，特有的食利者文化迫使许多商务活动者与许多政治、军方精英达成所谓的“合作关系”。比如总统的女儿Isabel dos Santos是非洲第一位女性百万富翁，而人权组织因此对该国体制发起控诉。

Oil provides few jobs for locals and Angola is horribly unequal. The quality of life of people in rural areas and slums, such as Luanda's Chicala, has barely improved since 2002. Most Angolans lack running water or electricity.
石油产业几乎并没有为当地居民提供任何工作机会并且安哥拉内部存在着严重的不平等。人民的生活水平自2002以来鲜有提升，尤其是像Luanda's Chicala这样的郊区和贫民窟。大多数安哥拉人缺乏新鲜水源和电力。

Many within the MPLA privately admit to its failure to develop the non-oil economy. Since 2012 the government has talked more about improving social conditions, health care and education.
安哥拉人民解放运动内部许多官员承认他们发展非石油产业经济的举措失败了。自2012年，政府讨论的更多是改善社会环境、医疗水平和教育水平。

Yet there is little sign of large-scale political or social unrest. Protests in Luanda, including one in November when the police detained 300 people and shot dead an opposition activist, are sporadic. The MPLA controls almost all of the media, while the two main opposition parties lack mass appeal. A smooth transition is generally expected when or if the 71-year-old president steps down as he has hinted, probably between now and 2017, when the next national elections are to be held.
不过仍有微弱迹象表明安哥拉存在着大规模的政治波动和社会动荡问题。在卢安达的示威抗议不时发生，例如在十一月那次抗议活动警察拘押了300多人并射杀了一名激进分子。安哥拉人民解放运动几乎控制了所有媒体，这使另外两个主要反对党缺少广泛的吸引力。在71岁高龄的总统如他所暗示的那样辞职之后，和平过渡被大众所期待，虽然那不知道何时甚至不知道是否会发生，有可能是在2017年的下次全国大选举行之前。

There was talk of his son, Jose Filomeno de Sousa dos Santos, who is chairman of Angola's sovereign-wealth fund, being lined up as a successor. But it has died down. Instead, the president is thought to favour his business-minded vice-president, Manuel Vicente, who ran Sonangol from 1999-2012. He cannot be guaranteed to tilt the country away from oil.
有传言说总统的任职安哥拉主权财富基金会主席的儿子Jose Filomeno de Sousa dos Santos被列为胜选者。但这种传言已经消失。相反地，总统被认为非常中意他非常有商业头脑的副总统Manuel Vicente，此人在1999年至2012年掌管Sonangol公司。他不可能保证让这个国家不向石油倾斜。

But a new generation of Angolans is coming of age; about 60% of the country's 21m people are under 25. Unlike their parents, they will not be satisfied solely with the MPLA's achievement in making peace earlier this century. What they need is jobs. And oil alone will not provide them.
新一代的安哥拉人达到了法定年龄，大约占这个国家人口百分之六十的两千一百万人低于25岁。他们将不会像他们的父母那样仅仅满足于安哥拉人民解放运动在新世纪开始时在和平方面的成就。他们需要工作，而光是石油是没法满足这种需求的。