经济学人下载:英国在伊拉克 卡梅伦的困惑

Britain in Iraq
英国，在伊拉克

Cameron's confusions
卡梅伦的困惑

The government flip-flops between belligerence and caution
政府在交战和警告间犹豫不决

HOW seriously does the British government take the threat from Islamic State (IS), an extremist group which has taken over swathes of Iraq and Syria? Despite a flurry of pronouncements from the prime minister and from Michael Fallon, Britain's defence secretary, it is growing increasingly hard to judge.
英国政府究竟对来自伊斯兰国（IS）这一占领了伊拉克和叙利亚的极端组织的威胁有多认真？尽管有首相和英国国防部长迈克尔·法伦的一系列声明，这一事态还是变得越来越难以琢磨了。

Writing in a newspaper on August 17th, David Cameron warned that Britain faces a “generational struggle” against a “poisonous ideology”. Striking a Churchillian tone, the prime minister argued that Britain's very security depended on the country using all its resources, aid, diplomacy and “military prowess” to vanquish this enemy. Tough stuff—perhaps the toughest from any Western leader so far.
大卫·卡梅伦于8月17日在报上撰文警告说，英国面临着“代际斗争”和“有毒思想”的抗衡。这位首相带着惊人的丘吉尔语气争论说英国的安全取决于国家能否使用全部的资源、援助、外交和“军事力量”来击溃敌人。手段强硬—这可能是到目前为止西方领导人中最强硬的了。

Yet before leaving on holiday the following day Mr Cameron assured journalists that this fiery rhetoric did not mean Britain was returning to war in Iraq, and that he had no intention to put “boots on the ground” against IS. That was before the release of a horrific video on August 19th showing the beheading of a captured American journalist, James Foley, by an IS militant who appeared to have a British accent. Mr Cameron rushed back from his break in Cornwall to confer with ministers in London.
然而第二天，在外出度假前卡梅伦向记者保证说这种激烈的言辞并不意味着英国要在伊拉克重燃起战火，他并没有“派兵”对抗IS的意图。这是在8月19号美国记者詹姆斯·福利被一疑似有英国口音的IS成员斩首的恐怖录像发布之前了。卡梅伦立即结束了在康沃尔的度假，返回与伦敦的大臣们协商。

Confusion already surrounds the work Britain's armed forces are presently performing in Iraq. Tornado bombers, helicopters, a spy plane, and some special forces are all operating in the north of the country—in particular near the city of Mosul. The government has said these efforts are merely humanitarian, intended to help refugees besieged by IS fighters (see picture). Yet on August 18th Mr Fallon was reported to have said that British forces were performing reconnaissance missions for Kurdish soldiers battling the jihadists. Some think Britain is also supplying the Kurds with communications equipment and training.
关于英国武装力量目前在伊拉克的工作已招致了不少疑问。旋风式轰炸机、直升机、间谍机和一些特殊武力正在伊拉克北方—尤其在摩苏尔附近—进行操练。政府表示这些行为仅仅是人道主义的，目的是为了帮助被IS分子围困的难民（见图）。然而在8月18号，有报道称法伦曾表示英国武装力量在帮助库尔德士兵进行侦察任务以对抗圣战者。一些人认为英国也在为库尔德人提供通讯设备和训练。

What explains this prevarication? Mr Cameron is doubtless eager to avoid a repeat of the fiasco last year, when the House of Commons voted against his urging that British forces intervene against the murderous regime of Syria's President Assad. As well as shattering Western resolve, the episode was a personal humiliation for the prime minister. If the government sounds too bellicose pressure will grow to recall parliament, currently in its summer recess, for a full debate.
这种搪塞该如何解释？卡梅伦毫无疑问急于避免重复去年的惨败，当时众议院投票反对他催促英国军方介入叙利亚总统阿萨德恐怖统治的要求。正如粉碎西方的决心一样，这一插曲是对首相的个人羞辱。如果政府看起来过于好战，那么过大的压力会召回目前正处于夏季休会的议会成员来进行一次完整的辩论。

Another risk is that Mr Cameron's pronouncements outstrip America's eagerness to act, leaving Britain isolated should the Obama administration commit itself no further. And the prime minister also has a war-weary public to contend with. Polls suggest that a large minority of Britons would support taking some limited action against IS, such as arming the Kurds. But winning public support for a larger scale conflict, however worthy the cause, looks almost impossible at present.
另一风险是卡梅伦的声明超过了美国作战的热情，若奥巴马政府不愿进一步行动，便会使英国处于孤立地位。卡梅伦还需应对厌战的公众。投票显示大部分英国人支持对IS采取有限的行动，比如说为库尔德人提供武装。但无论理由看起来多么值得，要赢得公众支持大规模战争在目前看起来几乎还是不可能。

Mr Foley's murder may change this. His hooded killer's London accent has focused attention on the thousands of European—and particularly British—Muslims which IS has drawn to its banner. Thomas Hegghammer of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment argues that this represents the “largest European Muslim foreign fighter contingent” that has gone to any conflict in modern history. As many as 500 of them are thought to be British. The clear risk is that these callow, inexperienced volunteers will return home as hardened and skilful jihadists, ready, as Mr Cameron puts it, to “target us on the streets of Britain”.
福利的谋杀一事可能改变这一情况。这位带有头罩的杀手的伦敦口音引起了成千欧洲—尤其是英国—穆斯林的注意，这些穆斯林已被IS招至旗下。挪威国防研究院的托马斯·黑哥海默称这代表着“最大的欧洲穆斯林国外战斗队伍”已参与现代史中的每一次冲突。其中多达500人被认为是英国人。很明显的风险是这些初出茅庐、毫无经验的志愿者们将成长为久经沙场、技巧纯熟的圣战者归来，如卡梅伦所说，这些人已做好准备“在英国大街上对我们开枪”。

Experts disagree on the scale of that threat. But even a very small number of returning extremists could cause considerable harm. After haring back to Whitehall, the prime minister said authorities would redouble efforts to track down British jihadists, and that the grisly video would not lead Britain to ramp up its involvement in the conflict. There is a limit to how long Mr Cameron can keep his options open.
专家对这一威胁的规模持有异议。但即便归来的极端主义者 数目非常小，也能造成严重的伤害。在急忙赶回白厅后，卡梅伦表示当局将付出双倍努力搜查圣战者，这一可怕的录像也不会使英国进一步介入冲突之中。卡梅伦能保持选择权多久是有限度的。