经济学人下载:尼日利亚 为何感觉完了?

Nigeria
尼日利亚

Why northerners feel done down
为何感觉完了？

A terrorist insurgency has deepened a poor region's already grave problems
恐怖叛乱—贫困的北方雪上加霜

THE roads are thick with traffic and pavements throng with hawkers selling phonecards, sunglasses and leather sandals. At night, street corners are lit up with a red glow from grills cooking spicy meat. But the bustle of Kano, Nigeria's second-biggest city and the commercial capital of the north, masks an uncomfortable reality: northern Nigeria is in steep decline.
主干道上交通甚忙，人行道上也挤满了小摊小贩，有卖电话卡的、太阳镜的、还有皮革凉鞋的。到了晚上，街头摆满了烧烤架，红红的炭火甚是明亮。但是尽管卡诺是尼日利亚第二大城市和北方商业省会城市，这些喧闹的景象掩盖了不争的事实：北尼日利亚猛走下坡路。

An increasingly bloody insurgency waged by Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, has sharpened frustration over the disparity between the jobless north and the oil-rich south. In recent months Kano has been relatively stable, following a military offensive to contain the terrorists. But though the pause in violence has brought people back onto the streets, they have rediscovered other problems. “Stoves are gone, people selling beer have gone, there is no market, there are few customers and I haven't been able to save any money in months,” says Chineu Abason, sitting in her wooden-shack restaurant in Sabon Gari, a mainly Christian district, where Boko Haram bombs have killed scores of people this year (see picture above).
博科圣地是一个伊斯兰教恐怖组织，他们的叛乱越来越残忍，这让本失业人数众多的北方与油多富有的南方差距更大了。最近几个月里，军队打击并牵制恐怖分子，卡诺相对稳定多了。但是，尽管叛乱暂时平息，人们重新回到了街道上，新的问题又来了。“我们没有炉子，没人卖酒，没有销售，顾客也很少，这几个月里我都没存到钱。”Chineu Abason坐在她自己木棚餐厅里说道。她的餐厅在Sabon Gari，这儿大多数人信奉基督教，仅今年就要大量民众丧生在博科圣地轰炸下。

The fear of terrorism continues to cast a long shadow over the city and across the north. Bombings, kidnappings and bloody assaults by Boko Haram, as well as the army's efforts to keep a lid on the fighting, have deterred investment. Farming, the north's main source of income, has been hamstrung. Consumer-goods companies say that insecurity has forced them to retreat from some areas. Commercial drivers say dangerous roads and military checkpoints add 5-10% to their costs.
整个城市以至北方都沉浸在恐怖主义的恐惧中。不断有来自博科圣地的轰炸、绑架和血腥袭击，还有军队奋力回击抑制恐怖势力，这让人们打消了投资的念头。作为北方最主要的收入来源的农业也因此荒废。一些日用品公司称因局势不安，他们在很多地区都撤回了公司。商务车司机说因危险路段以及军事检查点，他们的驱车成本都增加了5-10%。

Despite a construction boom across Nigeria, many foreign companies avoid the north. In February seven employees of Setraco, an international construction company, were abducted in Bauchi state by Ansaru, a group that splintered from Boko Haram, prompting an immediate shutdown of the firm's operations up north. PZ Cussons, the maker of Imperial Leather soap, and Guinness Nigeria are hanging on but have been hit by the conflict, too.
虽然建设热潮风靡整个尼日利亚，但是大多数外企自然而然地避开了北方。二月份，国际建筑公司Setraco的七名员工在包奇州遭到博科圣地分支组织安萨鲁绑架，这立即导致公司北上的运营全部瘫痪。皇皮革浴肥皂制造商卡森国际和英国吉尼斯黑啤虽然站住了阵脚，但也不免受到了冲击。

Even before Boko Haram's insurgency intensified nearly three years ago, the north was struggling. Unreliable electricity, cheap Chinese imports, smuggling and counterfeit goods have made life hard for local companies. Vast spaces on Kano's edges have become industrial graveyards. In rural areas the picture is bleaker still. Poor education puts off investors seeking skilled labour. Whereas the literacy rate in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital on the coast, is 92%, in Kano it is 49%. In the north-eastern state of Borno, where Boko Haram got going, it is 15%. Without better education, the region will struggle to attract investment or create jobs. The malaise is a useful recruiting tool for terrorists, as well as politicians with their eye on the top.
甚至在三年前，博科圣地叛乱还未像如今越演越烈，北方就处于水深火热之中。受到电力不稳，便宜的中国进口商品，以及走私和假冒商品的冲击，当地企业生存异常艰难。卡诺广阔的空间成了工业的墓地。农村的场景更加荒凉。这里教育程度低，投资者都不在这里找技术工人。相比而言，在尼日利亚沿海商业首都，92%的人会识字，而卡诺只有49%。东北部的博尔诺州尽力吸引来商投资创造就业机会。在这个经济的萎靡期，恐怖分子正好招兵买马，官员们此时则死死地盯着他们。

Northerners habitually complain that politicians have made personal fortunes from the booming oil industry in the south, while failing to share its benefits. Mutterings of a north-south divide have grown louder with the prospect of President Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, running for a second term in 2015. Northerners resent what they see as a violation of an unwritten rule that the presidency should rotate every two terms between the largely Muslim north and the mostly Christian south. A southerner has held the post for 11 of the past 14 years.
北方人民常常抱怨官员们从南方石油产业中为自己捞油水，却从来不与人民分享。总统古德勒克·乔纳森是一位南方基督教徒，他很有可能参加2015的总统竞选，这使得南北方分歧的抱怨声更大了。在北方主要是穆斯林民族，而南方主要是基督教徒，南北方间有一条不成文的规矩：总统每两届南北轮换一次，现在完全违背了这个规则，这让北方人民痛恨不已。过去的14年里，南方人就占了11年。

Nigeria's finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, insists that the government recognises the north's need. Nigeria has courted $20 billion of foreign direct investment in the past three years, 10% of the African total. Yet most investors set up shop in Lagos. “When we advise investors coming to Nigeria, they don't even talk about the north,” says a South African banker in the plush Hilton Hotel in Abuja, the capital, which lies between north and south. “It simply isn't a consideration. It's the sad truth and it isn't about to change.”
尼日利亚财政部长伊卫拉强调政府深知北方人民的需求。过去三年里，尼日利亚获外商直接投资200亿美元，占非洲总额的10%。然而，大多数的投资者都在拉各斯开店。在位于中部的首都阿布贾的豪华希尔顿酒中，一位南方银行家说到“我们建议投资者来尼日利亚，但他们并不谈论北方。这不是简单的考虑，这就是残酷的事实而且暂时改变不了。”

There are few signs of revival in Kano, though it is nearly as big as Lagos. “Shoprite OPENING SOON” is splashed on a red-and-orange sign where the Ado Bayero Mall, the north's first modern shopping centre, is going up. It has been a long wait: Shoprite, a South African food distributor, has been operating in Lagos since 2005.
尽管卡诺和拉各斯面积差不多，卡诺却很少有复兴的苗头。红橙相间的“Shoprite即将开业”字样喷在Ado Bayero购物中心，这是北方的第一个现代购物中心，正逐渐恢复过来。这是一个漫长的等待：Shoprite作为南非最大的食品经销商，早在05年就进驻拉各斯运营。

Kano's state governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has poured millions into infrastructure. Taxis weave through huge concrete columns that will eventually support a flyover. But while three-lane highways are being built, feeder roads from rural communities remain decrepit. A multimillion-dollar development, the Mega Five Projects, will have three posh housing estates and two transport terminals.
卡诺的州长Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso投入了上百万用于基础设施。巨大的水泥柱下出租车往来穿梭，而上面将支撑起一座立交桥。但是正当三条高速公路建设时，通往农村社区的支路却还是残破不堪。投资百万美元的5个大型项目将建成3个豪华住宅区和2个运输站。

Such projects make little sense when many northerners, struggling to make a living, are deciding to leave Kano in search of better prospects—down south. “It is the only logical way for the government,” says the owner of a big construction company. “Visible development gives the impression of stability and progress.” But it will not be enough to close the gulf between Nigeria's two halves. As a result, northerners are increasingly resentful.
努力谋生的北方人民决定离开卡诺寻找更好的出路---南下，这项工程就没有太大的意义了。一个大型建筑公司的老板说道：“看得到的发展才会让人觉得稳定和进步，这才是政府该有的逻辑思维。”但是，尼日利亚南北方的鸿沟一时还无法消除。因此，北方人民怨恨情绪日益高长。