经济学人下载:意大利政治 社工贝卢斯科尼

Italian politics
意大利政治

Silvio Berlusconi, social worker
社工贝卢斯科尼

Embarrassments pile up but the former prime minister still has political clout
纵使意大利政坛窘境重重，前总理依旧虎死余威在

NOT good: but far from the worst outcome. On April 15th a Milan court ruled that Silvio Berlusconi should serve his sentence for tax fraud by helping in an old people's home in Milan. But the former prime minister will be free to go to Rome from Tuesday to Thursday. In practice, the 77-year-old is unlikely to spend more than half a day a week pretending to help grannies, and then only for nine months.
结果不怎么好，但也还不是最糟糕。4月15日米兰法院判决：西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）需在一位米兰老人的家中服务，来为其税务欺诈罪行买单。但是这位意大利前总理依旧可以在周二到周四自由前往罗马。实际上，77岁的贝卢斯科尼不太可能每周花上超过半天时间假装为老人们服务，进而将刑期缩短到仅仅九个月。

As often happens in Italy, a daunting punishment has been whittled down to a mild reproof. Mr Berlusconi's four-year sentence was cut to one year because of an amnesty law from a centre-left government in 2006. He could not be jailed thanks to another law passed by one of his governments that bans the imprisonment of most over-70s. Since the court had ruled out house arrest, there is nothing to stop him leading his Forza Italia! party into next month's European elections. The message that Mr Berlusconi was not just any criminal, but the leader of Italy's main conservative party, was neatly conveyed to the judges when he spent some hours with the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, discussing a constitutional reform that requires his party's parliamentary support.
正如意大利的一贯作风，一项骇人的刑罚会逐渐缩水，最后变成温和的责备。贝卢斯科尼四年监禁的判决因2006年中左翼政府的大赦法被缩短至一年。他最终能够逃脱牢狱之灾还要感谢他在任期间曾通过的另一项法律，该法律禁止监禁70岁以上的老人。再加上意大利法院决定不将其软禁，所以已经没有什么能都阻止贝卢斯科尼继续领导他的意大利力量党角逐下个月的欧洲选举。在现任总理马泰奥·伦齐（Matteo Renzi）与法官数小时的会面中，贝卢斯科尼除了是个罪犯，更是意大利主要保守党领导人的消息被巧妙地传递到了这位法官耳朵里。在会面中，他们提到意大利的宪法改革需要力量党的议会支持。

Despite this clout, three recent events have left the media tycoon and his party beleaguered. On April 10th a judge sequestered 49m ($68m) of assets said to belong to Roberto Formigoni, who was for 18 years governor of Lombardy and for all but three a leading member of Mr Berlusconi's party. Mr Formigoni, who has joined Angelino Alfano's breakaway New Centre Right (NCD) party, is to go on trial next month charged with corruption and conspiracy. He denies wrongdoing.
尽管有如此影响力，最近发生的三件事让这位媒体大亨和他的政党都陷入了困境。4月10日一位法官没收了据说属于在任18年的伦巴第（Lombardy）大区主席——罗伯托·福尔米戈尼（Roberto Formigoni）价值四千九百万欧元（合六千八百万美金）的财产。 而福尔米戈尼已经加入了由安杰利诺·阿尔法诺（joined Angelino）带领的、从力量党脱离出的新中右翼党（NCD）。他将在下个月因贪污罪和密谋罪的指控接受审判。他否认一切罪行。

Then on April 12th police in Lebanon arrested Marcello Dell'Utri, the man who created Forza Italia! from nothing in the early 1990s, giving Mr Berlusconi the vehicle he needed for his political career. Mr Dell'Utri, a Sicilian, remained close, despite controversy over his alleged links to Cosa Nostra. He disappeared shortly before the supreme court could rule on his seven-year jail sentence for aiding and abetting mobsters. Lower-court judges ruled that his collaboration with the Mafia ceased before he founded Forza Italia! But his legal problems and fugitive status are embarrassing for the party and its leader.
此外，4月12日黎巴嫩警方逮捕了二十世纪九十年代意大利力量党的最初的创始人马塞洛·德尔乌特里（Marcello Dell'Utri），他为贝卢斯科尼提供了其开创政治事业所需的工具。尽管对于他所声称的与黑手党的关系存在着争议，但西西里人德尔乌特里一直保持着与科萨·诺斯特拉（Cosa Nostra）密切的联系。在最高法院判决他帮助和教唆黑手党之罪入狱七年之前，他失踪了一小段时间。低级法院则判定他早在建立力量党之前就已经断绝了与黑手党的合作往来。但是他的法律问题和逃犯的身份让意大利力量党和党领袖贝卢斯科尼都非常尴尬。

Lastly, on April 13th, Mr Berlusconi's long-standing spokesman, Paolo Bonaiuti, confirmed he was leaving Forza Italia!, but not the centre-right—a hint that he will join the NCD. His decision to quit was evidence of tensions that have multiplied within Forza Italia! as the party has drifted without a clear direction in recent months.
还有，4月13日贝卢斯科尼长久以来的发言人保罗·博纳尤蒂（Paolo Bonaiuti）证实：他将离开意大利力量党，但并不不会离开中右翼党派。这也暗示了他将加入新中右翼党。他离开的决定又一次凸显了近几个月因没有明确地方向而动荡不定的意大利力量党不断升级的紧张局势。

The possibility that Mr Berlusconi might have been under house arrest drew renewed attention to his lack of a successor. Mr Alfano founded the NCD after Mr Berlusconi had handed him the leadership, only to snatch it back again. But whether Mr Alfano can build a credible alternative to Forza Italia! remains to be seen; five months after its foundation, the NCD averages less than 5% in the polls.
贝卢斯科尼会被软禁的可能性让人们再一次关注谁会是他的继任者。贝卢斯科尼曾将党的领导权交给过阿尔法诺，也是在那之后阿尔法诺建立了新中右翼党。然而却不料贝卢斯科尼之后又夺回了领导权。但是阿尔法诺是否能够建立起一个可以信赖党派来代替力量党这还需要时间来检验。在其成立五个月之后，新中右翼党的各类民意调查中的平均支持率还不到5%。

Forza Italia!'s share has slumped from 29% at last year's election to 21%, below Beppe Grillo's maverick Five Star Movement (M5S). Unless Mr Berlusconi can find a way to revive his party's fortunes, it is possible that the next confrontation in Italian politics will not be between right and left, but between Mr Renzi's Democratic Party and an M5S that aspires to replace not just all the mainstream parties but parliamentary democracy itself.
力量党的支持率也由29%骤降至21%，低于由贝佩·格里洛（Beppe Grillo）领导的特立独行的五星运动党（M5S）。除非贝卢斯科尼能找到合适的方法来拯救他领导的力量党的命运，否则意大利政坛的下一次交锋将不会是在左与右之间，而会成为伦齐领导的意大利民主党与不仅想要取代所有意大利主流政党更企图代替民主党掌权议会的五星运动党之间的一次角逐。