经济学人下载:移民到苏格兰 希望你早先就已到达

Immigration in Scotland
移民到苏格兰

Wish you were here
希望你早先就到这了

Immigration worries Scots less than other Britons, but that could change
相比英国其他地区，移民较少担心苏格兰人（排外），但这种情况可能变化

AT THE Polish Club in Glasgow, Scots and Poles socialise easily. Many of the customers in its restaurant are Scottish, eager to try Polish food before going there on holiday, says 16-year-old Maria, who moved to Scotland eight years ago and works in the club part-time as a waitress. She, by contrast, has no desire to return. Scotland's welcome has been warm. Its government wants it to be warmer still.
在格拉斯沃的“波兰俱乐部”中，苏格兰人和波兰人相处很愉快。16岁的玛丽娅说，这间饭馆的很多顾客都是苏格兰人。他们在去波兰度假之前，都很想先尝尝波兰的料理。八年前她移民来到苏格兰，并在这家具乐部兼职做女侍。相比较苏格兰，她不愿意回波兰。苏格兰待客热情。其政府也希望苏格兰将来更加热情友好。

Scotland's leaders have long maintained that they need immigrants more than the rest of Britain does, both to boost the country's sparse population and to alleviate skills shortages. Between 1981 and 2003 Scotland's population declined. Most of the population growth that Scotland has seen since then has been thanks to migrants, largely from outside Britain. Scots are having fewer children and ageing more rapidly than other Britons: on current trends the Scottish population will swell by just 4% by 2062 compared with 23% for Britain as a whole, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The only cohort expected to grow is the oldest one.
长久以来，苏格兰地区领导人都认为相比英国其他地区其更需要移民。这既能增加该地区原本稀少的人口，又能够弥补技工短缺。从1981年到2003年，苏格兰人口下降。从那以后，苏格兰地区的人口增长大多都要归功于英国外来的移民。相比较其他地区，苏格兰的儿童越来越少，其人口老化也更迅速：据财政研究所估算，就目前苏格兰的人口趋势来看，到2062年为止，苏格兰人口将下降4%，而英国全国则减少23%。唯一增加的数据栏是老年人口一项。

If Scots vote for independence, a nationalist government promises to encourage immigration. It would offer incentives for migrants willing to move to far-flung spots. It would ease the nationwide requirement that immigrants must earn a particular salary to gain residency (currently set at ￡20,300, or $33,700) to reflect the lower cost of living there. Students would be able to stay after graduating and work for several years.
如果苏格兰人公投决定独立，这个民族政权也承诺继续鼓励移民。政府将会激励移民使其自愿到偏远地区安家。目前国家关于取得移民居住权的特定收入标准也将会放宽（目前设置的是20,300英镑或33,700美元），以表明居住在苏格兰成本低得多。学生在毕业后也能留得下，可以工作很多年。

Turning these aspirations into a workable immigration policy would be tricky. Though anxious to join the EU, Scotland's government is less keen on the Schengen travel zone, which allows non-EU citizens to travel on a single visa. It wants to remain part of the Common Travel Area, like the Republic of Ireland, which imposes minimal border controls. Robert Wright, an economist at Strathclyde University who has advised the government on demography, is unconvinced this pick-and-mix approach to EU membership would work.
这些愿景若要成为一套行得通的移民政策也不现实。尽管渴望加入欧盟，苏格兰政府对加入申根区组织却没那么有兴趣。这个组织允许非欧盟公民可凭一个护照游遍全欧。苏格兰想继续遵守共同旅游区协议，就像爱尔兰共和国那样将边境控制降到最少。斯特拉思克莱德大学的经济学家罗伯特.赖特在人口政策上给政府提供咨询。他不相信用类似拼凑式的手段能取得欧盟的成员资格。

And this would be one of many strains on Scotland's relationship with the rest of Britain. Different immigration policies in two countries that share a land border could result in stricter controls, including passport checks between them. Humza Yousaf, Scotland's minister for external affairs and international development, denies they would be necessary. Scotland would have border management, he stresses, not border guards. But xenophobic English politicians may disagree.
而这只是苏格兰与英国其余地区诸多联系中的一个。如果毗邻的两个国家采用不同的移民政策，边境的控制将十分严格。其中就包括核查对方护照。苏格兰对外事务和国际发展部部长哈姆扎.尤萨夫否定这些关联不可或缺。他强调，苏格兰将来很可能实施的是边境管理而非边界警卫。但排外的英国政治家应该有不同意见。

If the nationalists lose the independence vote, London could be minded to devolve further powers to Scotland, perhaps including over immigration. Mr Wright argues there is scope for more regional diversity. In Canada, immigration requirements are eased if people agree to live in less popular provinces.
如果民族主义者在独立公投中失败，伦敦就有意进一步向苏格兰下放权力。当中可能包括移民方面。赖特认为地区多样性的操作空间会越来越大。在加拿大，如果移民同意居住在人口较稀少的省份，移民资格就会放宽一些。

Scots are somewhat less resistant to immigration than other Britons. Some 58% want fewer migrants in Scotland. Fully 75% of English and Welsh people want fewer in their countries, says a report by the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. And Scots are more sanguine. Just 21% identify immigration as one of the most important issues facing the country, lower than the British average of 33%, according to Ipsos MORI, a pollster.
牛津大学的移民观察站的一份报告称，某种程度上苏格兰人没有英国其他地区那般排斥移民。约58%的人希望苏格兰少点移民。而英国和威尔士则有75%的人希望自己的地区移民数量少点。苏格兰人更乐观一些。民意调查机构“莫里调查”发现，只有21%的人认为移民是本地区面临的至为关键的问题之一，比全英平均33%的比例要低的多。

That equanimity stems in part from the fact that migrants in Scotland are not especially common. More than half of its “foreign” residents come from other parts of Britain. Attitudes to immigrants tend to be softest where newcomers are scarce, as in Scotland, or very numerous, as in London. They harden in between those extremes. In eastern England, for example, where eastern Europeans are increasingly numerous, 38% fume about immigration. If Scotland manages to entice more foreigners, it will enter this difficult middle territory. The warm Scottish welcome could cool.
这份淡定部分是源于这样一个事实，即苏格兰的移民还没那么常见。约一半的“国外”移民来自英国的其他地区。国外新移民越少的地方，对移民的态度也就越温和，如苏格兰地区；而越多的地方，人们也是如此，比如伦敦。在这两个端点之间，民众就冷酷的多。比如英格兰东部地区东欧人口迅速增加，38%的人对移民有怨言。如果苏格兰成功吸引更多移民，其将陷入这个尴尬的中间区域。苏格兰人的温暖欢迎会变冷。