经济学人下载:洪水保险 海平面上升

Flood insurance
洪水保险

Sea change
海平面上升

If you have an expensive house near the sea, it's time to sell
如果你在海边有一栋豪宅，那么现在赶快抛售吧

ON DECEMBER 6th the largest storm surge since 1953 hit Britain's coasts, flooding 1,400 houses. The fact that only two people died—compared with 326 in the earlier storm—is testament to the tidal barriers built in Britain over the past few decades. Yet the system that created many of those sea defences, and encouraged people to keep living in flood-prone areas, is being abandoned.
12月6日，英国沿海地区遭遇自1953年以来最严重的暴风雨，有1400间民居受灾，两人死亡。和1953年死亡326人的情况相比，这场灾难人员伤亡大大减少。原因是，在过去几十年里，英国修建了大量的防波堤。尽管之前政府修建了许多海防工事并鼓励人们住在洪水风险区的，目前这一计划正面临着搁浅的命运。

Since the 1960s the government has paid to build flood defences while insisting that insurers cover most properties in flood-prone areas. This arrangement has gradually become a casualty of austerity and climate change. Spending on flood defences fell from629m ($972m) to 510m between 2010 and 2012. Simply repairing existing defences would cost 1 billion per year by 2035. New flood defences will be subject to a rigorous cost-benefit analysis, with more land in effect surrendered to the sea. The last agreement with the insurance industry came to an end this July.
自从20世纪60年代以来，英国政府就出资修建海防工事，并宣称住在洪水风险区的承包人的保险可覆盖大部分财产。这一政策调整逐渐成为通货紧缩和气候变化的牺牲品。从2010年到2012年，用于海防工事的投资从六亿两千九百万英镑（九亿七千两百万美元）降到了五亿一千万英镑。到2035年，每年仅检修目前的海防工事就要耗资10亿英镑。新的海防工事将纳入严格的成本效益分析，涉及更大范围的沿海地区。今年六月，英国政府与保险业签订的上一个协议落下了帷幕。

In place of the old system, the government has proposed shifting the costs of flooding onto homeowners. All households taking out insurance will now pay a 10.50 levy to Flood Re, a not-for-profit fund, to subsidise premiums for 500,000 houses in flood-prone areas.
新的保险系统下，政府提出将洪灾的费用加到房主的身上。参与洪水保险的家庭现在要向洪水再次保险（一个非盈利性的基金会）缴纳10.5英镑的税款，以帮助修复那些位于洪水风险区的500,000间房屋。

The new scheme is patchy. Whereas the old agreement covered all properties with no worse than a 1-in-75 annual risk of flooding, the new scheme will exclude many. Houses in the top council-tax band and businesses will not be allowed to join the scheme. Houses built since 2009 will also not be covered (28,000 were planned to be built on floodplains in 2011 alone). If properties flood too often they will be thrown out of the scheme. MPs in flood-prone places such as Hull are not happy.
新的洪水保险计划条款很琐碎。旧保险系统覆盖了1到79项洪灾严重性的情况下所有财产的保险，而新保险系统则删除了很多受灾情况。缴纳最高家庭税的房子和公司不能加入这一保险计划，也不包括建于2009年后的房子（仅2011年在泛滥平原区就计划修建了28000间房子）。如果涉及洪水的财产太多，政府将搁置这一计划。来自洪水风险区的国会议员，如赫尔，对此非常不满。

Worse, Flood Re's sums do not yet add up. One government study suggested that the fund has a 58% chance of running out of money in the initial 20 years the scheme is to run for. Some fear that the state may find itself spending some of the money saved by building fewer defences on topping the scheme up.
更糟糕的是，还未合计洪水再保险的资金总额。一项政府调查说，该基金有58%的概率已经花完了该计划前20年的资金。有些人担心政府会为了省钱而减少海防工事的修建量，从而堵上该计划的资金漏洞。

The housing market seems already to be pricing in higher risk. Between 2008 and 2012 property prices rose in four out of the five Lincolnshire postcodes with the lowest flood risk. They fell in four out of the five areas of highest risk (see chart). This may have some good effects. Forcing homeowners to shoulder more of the costs of flooding should encourage them to invest in precautions and discourage builders from erecting houses in risky areas. But in the meantime, in low-lying parts of Britain, wellington boots and sandbags may make wiser investments than houses.
房地产市场的房价似乎面临着更大的危险。从2008年到2012年，由于少有洪水灾害，林肯郡的房价已经涨了80%。由于日前洪灾的巨大威胁，房价已经降了80%。这可能会起到一些积极的作用。迫使房主承担更多的洪灾风险可促使他们谨慎投资，避免建筑商重建危险地带的房屋。然而，在同一时间，在英国低洼地区，与房地产投资比起来，投资长筒防水靴和沙包是更为明智的选择。