经济学人下载:​中国的消费大军 依旧活跃(下)

The dynamism of the mostly-private consumer sector comes not from stimulus, argues Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, an investment firm, but from strong income growth and low household debt. (Chinese household debt stands at about 40% of GDP, roughly half the level seen in America.) Real urban incomes rose by 5.8% in the first quarter. Willis Towers Watson, a consultancy, estimates that white-collar salaries are now significantly higher in China than in South-East Asia. That fuels a bristling optimism. A recent study by McKinsey, a consultancy, found that 55% of consumers in China are confident that their incomes will rise significantly over the next five years.
铭基亚洲（一家投资公司）的安迪·罗斯曼声称，私营化的消费者市场的活力并非源于刺激，而是来源于强劲上涨的收入和低额的家庭债务（中国的家庭债务占中国国内生产总值的40%，几乎仅是美国的一半）。第一季度城市居民收入增长了5.8%。Willis Towers Watson（一家全球咨询管理公司）预估中国白领的工资水平显著高于东南亚地区。这极大地增加了人们的信心。麦肯锡（咨询公司）近期的一项研究显示中国55%的消费者相信在未来的五年里他们的收入水平将再继续上涨。

Many big firms seem willing to look past current clouds over China's economy to brighter days ahead. Pepsi, an American snack-food firm, opened its first Quaker Oats manufacturing plant on the mainland in October, and has launched oat-based dairy drinks to cater to local tastes. It even hopes to introduce Pepsi-branded smartphones. McDonald's, an American hamburger chain, wants 1,250 outlets in the mainland over the next five years on top of the 2,200 it operates already.
很多大型公司都对中国当前阴云密布的经济持有乐观态度。百事（美国的零食企业）在十月份于大陆地区建立了第一个桂格燕麦的生产基地，并且为了迎合当地人的口味生产了特定的以燕麦为基础的牛奶饮品。这个公司甚至还想引进百事自家品牌的智能手机。麦当劳（美国汉堡连锁）在中国其已经拥有2200家店面的基础上，期望在未来的五年里再增加1250个店面。

America's Walt Disney, an entertainment colossus, is set to open Shanghai Disneyland in June. The $5.5 billion theme park is its biggest investment outside Florida. Keen to experience such wondrous novelties as Peking-duck-topped, Mickey-Mouse shaped pizza, Chinese families are now eagerly snapping up entry tickets online. Starbucks, an American coffee chain, plans to add 500 outlets this year in China, including one at the entrance of the new Disney park. Howard Schultz, its boss, predicts it will be “Starbucks' highest-grossing retail store overnight”.
迪士尼（美国娱乐公司巨头）在上海的乐园将于六月份正式投入使用，其投资额达55亿美元，是继在弗罗里达州的乐园之后投资的最大的乐园。那些中国家庭已经等不及要尝试新的体验，为了吃到有着米奇老鼠外形的，带有北京烤鸭的披萨，他们纷纷开始上网抢购门票。星巴克（美国额咖啡连锁）计划今年在中国继续投入500家店面，其中一家设于新的迪士尼乐园。其老总霍华德·舒尔茨预测“此处的星巴克会一夜成为有史以来营业额最高的店面。”

Firms such as these are betting on the continued rise of the affluent middle class. By 2020, the number of households earning above $24,000 per year is expected to double to 100m, making up 30% of all urban households. They are also betting on the frivolity of the free-spending young. Consumption is rising at 14% a year among under-35s, twice the level of frugal oldies. But above all, they are betting on the law of large numbers. A joint study, by the Boston Consulting Group, another consultancy, and AliResearch, the research arm of Alibaba, predicts that even if economic growth falls to only 5.5% per year (well below official claims of nearly 7% a year now), China's consumer economy will expand over the next five years by some $2.3 trillion. Despite the deficiencies in economic forecasts, that incremental gain would be bigger than the entire consumer economy in Britain or
Germany today.

这样的公司都将期望寄予中国富裕的的中产阶级的增加。到2020年，家庭年均收入达两万四千美元的数量将翻一番，达到一亿家，在所有的城市家庭中占比达30%。 他们还寄期望于那些挥霍无度的年轻人身上。35岁以下的消费年增长14%，是那些节俭的老一代人的两倍。但是除此以外，他们还寄期望与大数定律。一项由波士顿咨询公司和阿里研究所（阿里巴巴的研究分支）合作的研究预测即使中国的年经济增长率跌到5.5%（远低于现在官方公布的近7%的增长率），中国的消费将在未来的五年里继续扩张两万三千亿美元。即使中国的经济前景不济，但是消费经济依旧比如今的英国和德国要更具前景。