经济学人下载:婴儿的离奇流失 揭开持久生育低谷的谜团(上)

Demography
人口统计学

The strange case of the missing baby
婴儿的离奇流失

As the financial crisis hit, birth rates fell in rich countries, as expected. But a persistent baby bust is a real puzzle
正如人们所预料那样，金融危机的冲击导致发达国家的出生率下降。但持久的生育低谷才是一个真实的谜团。

HE IS not exactly leading by example, but Pope Francis wants more babies. “The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly in Catholic countries such as Italy and Spain. But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too.
他自己并非以身作则，但教宗方济各想要有更多的婴儿出生。他在去年说道，“欧洲所面临的重大挑战就是，恢复作为一名欧洲母亲的身份，”同时也暗示，年轻人也许不喜欢多生几个孩子，因为他们更喜欢假期。确实，欧洲缺乏年轻人，尤其是在意大利和西班牙这样的天主教国家。但婴儿短缺的范围更为广泛：美国母亲和澳大利亚母亲也越来越少了。

They were certainly present a decade ago. Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom. In the decade to 2008, the total fertility rate (the number of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime based on present patterns) rose in much of the rich world. In Britain it went up from 1.68 to 1.91; in Australia from 1.76 to 2.02; and in Sweden from 1.5 to 1.91. America even managed to reach the “replacement rate” of 2.1, meaning its population was sustaining itself, without taking migration into account.
在十年前，他们是确实存在着的。尽管在东欧的前社会主义国家，以及难以将工作与母亲身份结合的传统之地中，如日本、韩国和欧洲南部地区，出生率低下—但许多国家都经历过婴儿潮时期。到2008年为止的十年间，大部分发达国家的生育率均上升了（生育率是指在既有模式下，一位女性希望在其一生中生育的孩子的数量）。在英国，生育率从1.68上升至1.91；在澳大利亚，生育率从1.76上升至2.02；在瑞典，该指标从1.5上升至1.91。美国甚至达到2.1的“人口置换率”，这意味着，在不考虑移民的情况下，该国人口基本保持不变。

There were two reasons, says Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography. First, women who had delayed having children while they studied and started careers hurried to the maternity wards while they still could. Births to women in their 30s, which had been rising gently for years, went up further in Norway and elsewhere. Second, fertility among women in their 20s stopped falling.
维也纳人口统计学研究所的托马斯·索博特卡表示，导致这种现象的原因有两个。首先，那些因为学习或者事业刚起步而延迟怀孕的女性都趁自己身体状况允许的条件下着急生育。这些年来，30几岁才生育的女性数量一直在缓慢增加，在挪威以及别的地方增长得更快。其次，20几岁生育的女性数量也逐渐减少。

The financial crisis abruptly turned the boom to bust. Countries in the European Union delivered 5,469,000 babies in 2008 but only 5,075,000 in 2013—a drop of over 7%. That was too much for Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Huggies nappies, which announced in 2012 that it would pull out of most of Europe. In America the fertility rate fell from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.86 in 2014. Ken Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, estimated that America was missing 2.3m babies.
金融危机突然地将婴儿潮转变为生育低谷。在2008年，欧盟国家共有5，469,000名婴儿出生，而在2013年，仅有5,075,000名——下跌超过7%。这对于好奇纸尿布的制造商金佰利克拉克而言，实在是太多了。金佰利在2012年宣布将退出大部分欧洲市场。在美国，生育率从2007年的顶点值2.12跌至2014年的1.86。新罕布尔什大学的人口学家肯·约翰逊估计，美国已流失230万婴儿。

The crunch was unsurprising: anxiety about jobs and money puts people off children. But a rich-world baby bust that began predictably turned into a puzzle.
这一窘境在人们意料之中：对工作和金钱的担忧使得人们推迟要孩子的计划。但原本可预计的生育低谷发生在发达国家却变成了一个谜。