经济学人下载:德国能源转型 适时求变(中)

The plan will require two transformations, one micro and one macro. The first is an unruly, subsidy-fed explosion of wind, solar and biomass power, a “strange mixture of idealism and greed,” as one energy boss calls it. The second is the effort to pull this into a system providing reliable and affordable electricity. Protagonists of the micro version see themselves as democratising economic and political power. The renewable-energy law entitles anybody who puts in a solar panel or a windmill to sell surplus power to the grid, receiving a generous “feed-in tariff” guaranteed over 20 years. This gives renewable electricity priority over conventional power. Not surprisingly, renewables grew ten times faster than the OECD average from 1990 to 2010 and now account for 20% of electricity output (see chart). The government’s target is 35% by 2020. Germany gets more electricity from renewable sources than any other big country.
能源转型计划将需要从微观和宏观两个层面进行转化。第一个是依靠政府的补贴，大力开发风能、太阳能以及生物能源，某能源老总称之为一个“理想主义和贪婪主义奇怪的混杂物”。第二个指为把开发出的能源转入一个能够提供可靠且可负担的电流体制所做的努力。微观版的支持者视自己为民主化经济和政治力量。每位通过太阳能板或风车向电网出售剩余电力的公民，都可凭借《可再生能源法》赋予的权利，在未来20多年内享受“上网电价补贴政策”。这使人们在可再生能源与传统能源二者中，优先考虑前者。1990年至2000年间，德国的可再生能源增幅比世界经合组织（OECD）的平均值快十倍自然也不足为奇，如今可再生能源占德国发电量的20%。德国政府的目标是，在2020年将该比率扩大至35%。德国利用可再生能源产电量为所有大型国家之首。

The return on capital can top 20% a year in the best spots. But do not confuse harvesters of sun and wind with electricity plutocrats. “One important goal is to break the monopoly” of the four big power companies that dominate the market, says Hermann Albers, president of the Federal Wind Energy Association. Municipal utility companies plan to boost their share of electricity production from a tenth to at least a fifth by 2020. More than 100 municipalities want to be “100% renewable”.
最佳地点的年资本回报率最多为20%。可您甭想用电力财阀们来唬弄太阳能和风能的收获者们。联邦风能协会会长Hermann Albers说，“重要目标之一是打破四大电力公司主导市场的垄断”。市政公用事业公司计划在2020年前，将自己在电力生产中占得比率从10%，至少提高至20%。逾100个直辖市希望实现“100%利用可再生能源”。

The number of “energy co-operatives” has risen sixfold since 2007, to 586 last year. Solar parks have migrated from farms and family houses to apartment blocks. “Roof exchanges” match owners with investors. Niebull allows only wind farms in which residents can buy stakes, lest landowners become local fat cats and others rebel against the project. In 2010 over 50% of renewable-energy capacity was in the hands of individuals or farmers, according to trend:research, a consultancy. The big four had just 6.5%.
去年 “能源合作项目”数目为586个，是2007年的六倍。太阳能电场也从田间地头、独立住宅迁到了公寓大楼。电场主通过“屋顶交换”项目找到匹配的投资者。尼必尔市仅容许风力农场居民购买股份，以免地主摇身变成地方“肥猫”，使其他人反对该项目。据资讯公司trend-research称，2010年可再生能源产能的一半以上都落入个体或农民手中。四大电力公司仅占6.5%。

This is perking up sleepy regions. Farmers are likelier to remain on the land. Services, from consultants who guide investors through the subsidy jungle to specialist windmill repairmen, have taken root in towns. The taxes paid by Niebull’s wind park are one of the town’s main sources of revenue; in smaller settlements they may be almost the only local source.
这也使那些尚未采取行动的地区开始跃跃欲试。农民们更愿意留在农村。各项服务已在城镇扎根：从在堆积如山的补助里为投资者引路的顾问，到专业风车维修工。尼必尔风力电厂纳的税费成了城市主要税收之一，而在一些小地方，风场也许几乎是地方税收的唯一来源。

The micro-level works almost too well. Schleswig-Holstein plans to generate three times as much renewable energy as it consumes and to export the surplus south and west. Southern states are keen to produce their own renewable power, too. Bavaria talks of self-sufficiency. The states’ windpower targets add up to double the federal government’s goal of 36 gigawatts by 2020.
微观层面的似乎运作的太一帆风顺了。席勒斯威格-霍尔斯坦计划生产的可再生能源是原来需求量的三倍，并计划将剩余电量出口至德国南部、西部的城市。南方各州也热切期望能自己生产可再生电力。巴伐利亚州提出要自给自足。截至2020年，各州的风能目标合计为联邦政府36千瓦兆目标的两倍。

Solar power, which consumes half the total subsidy but provides just a fifth of renewable electricity, is racing ahead of target. The Energiewende raises costs, unsettles supply and provokes resistance at grass-roots level. The system coped with the first influx of renewable energy, says Rainer Baake, who heads a lobby group called Agora Energiewende. But the next 20% will require a transformation.
太阳能的发展超出目标， 它只耗费总补助额的二分之一，却提供了可再生电力的五分之一。能源转型抬高了成本，搅乱了供给，还激起草根阶层的反抗情绪。游说组织“能源转型集会”的领导人Rainer Baake说，现有体制应对了首批可再生能源的涌入，然而接下来的20%就需要转变。

One fight is over who will pay. The most energy-intensive consumers are shielded from the feed-in tariff, leaving ordinary folk, including pensioners and the unemployed, to foot the bill. The nuclear shutdown pushed up industry’s electricity bills relative to its competitors, argues Annette Loske of VIK, which represents big consumers. The political assault on their exemption undermines the confidence they need to invest. An even bigger worry is supply interruptions, which can disrupt factories even if they last for fractions of a second. VIK says they have risen 30% in the past three years. The odds of outright power cuts have jumped.
第一阶段的战役已结束，谁来为之埋单？能源消耗量最大的用户受上网电价的保护，留下平民百姓，领养老金的老人已经失业人员负担费用。来自大客户代理商VIK的Annette Loske辩解道，与竞争对手相比，核电站的关闭抬高了工业的电费。大客户本需要树立信心，而针对大客户免税的政治攻击却渐渐削弱了这份信心。断电则是另一份更大的烦恼，供电哪怕只中断几分之一秒都会扰乱工厂作业。VIK称，在过去三年里断电频率已上升至30%。突然停电的几率猛增。