经济学人下载:意大利大选 需要看西西里岛"脸色"

Europe Elections in Sicily
欧洲 西西里岛改选

Tip of the boot
鞋尖上的土地

Sicily’s vote and Italy’s future
西西里的一票关乎意大利的前程

Were Sicily an independent state, its 5m people would give it a bigger population than eight countries in the EU. The island has always mattered, seldom more than now. On October 28th its voters will choose a new regional governor and parliament in the first big test of public opinion in the run-up to Italy’s next general election, probably in April. How Sicilians vote may answer some of the many questions that hang over the national vote.
如果把意大利的西西里岛（Sicily）算作一个独立的国家，其500万人口将一举超过欧盟（EU）的8个国家。这块岛屿的地位举足轻重，而现在更是如此。意大利预计于明年四月进行新一轮大选，而在此之前作为首次大规模的民意测试，10月28日西西里岛将面临地区政府的改选。西西里岛的本次投票结果，可能会解开围绕全国大选诸多问题中的一部分。

It could make or break the chances of Angelino Alfano, the secretary of Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative People of Freedom movement (PdL). On October 24th Mr Berlusconi confirmed he would not run again for prime minister and announced a primary election to choose the PdL’s candidate on December 16th. Mr Alfano, a Sicilian whom the media tycoon had named as his successor, is a front-runner. But if his native island, where Mr Berlusconi won all 61 seats in Italy’s 2001 general election, veers left, it will blight his chances.
对于偏向保守的“自由人民党”（PdL，意大利前总理贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）所属其中）秘书长阿尔法诺（Angelino Alfano）而言，本次西西里岛选举非福即祸。10月24日，贝卢斯科尼前总理声明不会再度竞选意大利总理一职，并宣称于12月6日举行初选，以决定该党的竞选人。西西里岛出身的阿尔法诺已被传媒巨头指明为贝卢斯科尼的后任，并在候选人中遥遥领先。西西里岛原本是贝卢斯科尼于2001年意大利大选时赢得61票之地，但若这块阿尔法诺的故土突然倒戈向左派，他的希望将顿时变得渺茫。

Plagued by splits and regional graft scandals, the PdL is bleeding support. The last opinion poll gave its candidate for governor, Sebastiano (“Nello”) Musumeci, only a slim lead over Rosario Crocetta of the Democratic Party (PD), Italy’s biggest left-wing group.
但受到党内分裂和各地行贿丑闻的影响，自由人民党的人气不断下滑。最近一次民调显示，在本次参与西西里岛政府竞选的候选人中，相比意大利第一左翼大党“意大利民主党”（PD）代表克罗斯塔（Rosario Crocetta），自由人民党候选人姆苏美琪（Sebastiano Musumeci）的优势并不明显。

Mr Crocetta is yoked to the conservative Christian Democrat Union of the Centre (UDC). But the PD plans to fight the general election alongside the more radical Left, Ecology and Freedom (SEL) movement. Victory for the PD-UDC ticket in Sicily could prompt a rethink, especially if the PD’s leader, Pier Luigi Bersani, loses his job to a more centrist rival, Matteo Renzi, in a primary election in November. This choice of partners could affect the fate of Mario Monti, the non-party technocrat who has been Italy’s prime minister since last November. He would find it a lot more comfortable to belong to a PD-UDC coalition than to a PD-SEL one.
与克罗斯塔联合的是偏保守的“基督教与中间派民主联盟”（UDC，简称“中间联盟”）。但民主党在本次大选中，打算与更激进的左派政党“生态自由党”（SEL）合作。若此两党在本次西西里选举中胜出，尤其是若前者的党首贝尔萨尼（Pier Luigi Bersani）在11月党内初选中败给其立场更为偏中的对手马特奥·兰奇（Matteo Renzi）的话，意大利大选将引来再议。民主党的这一选择，也将影响到去年11月就任意大利总理的技术型专家马里奥·蒙蒂（Mario Monti）。在他看来，比起与生态自由党结盟，民主党与中间联盟合作会更可取。

The joker—literally as well as politically—is Beppe Grillo, the comedian whose vitriolically anti-establishment Five Star Movement is again surging on a wave of indignation at the recent corruption scandals. After swimming to Sicily from the mainland, he has conducted a vigorous campaign for his party’s candidate, filling town squares, and rattling mainstream commentators and politicians with his raucous populism.
对此，著名意大利喜剧演员贝贝·格里洛（Beppe Grillo）从文字上和政治上都进行了调侃。其建立党派“五星运动”（Five Star Movement）尖刻地抨击着现行体制。而本次，该党再一次就近期腐败丑闻激起轩然大波。最近，格里格从意大利本岛游至西西里岛。其后，他为该党的候选人发起了一场有力的竞选，活动充斥了各个小镇广场。同时，格里格尖锐的民粹主义也让主流评论家和政治家倍感紧张。