经济学人下载:普京高调反腐 新闻曝光各部长赃款及其情妇(1)

Europe Russia’s president
欧洲 俄罗斯总统

Alone at the top
高处不胜寒

Vladimir Putin has initiated some high-profile battles against corruption. But to many he seems increasingly isolated and out of touch
弗拉基米尔·普京掀起了一场高调的反腐之战。但在很多人看来，他似乎愈加孤立也愈加脱离群众

STATE-RUN television is not usually the place to find news of corruption scandals involving officials close to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. Murky business dealings have never been a bar to government service. When high-level bureaucrats fall, they usually go quietly. But viewers have recently been treated to quite a spectacle on Channel One: evening broadcasts full of current and former ministers, their lovers, their expensive homes and millions in misappropriated funds.
俄罗斯国家电视台并不经常报道总统弗拉基米尔·普京身边官员的贪污丑闻。灰色交易对于政府服务来说从来不是障碍。一旦有高级官僚倒台，这些业务往来通常也就悄悄消失了。但是最近观众却在第一频道看到了这样的壮观场面：晚间新闻集中曝光了现任和前任的各位部长和他们的情妇，以及他们昂贵奢华的住宅和价值百亿的贪污赃款。

This nascent anti-corruption campaign began in October with the dismissal of Anatoly Serdyukov as defence minister. He was fired after investigators linked a company spun off from the ministry to a $100m fraud. That a high-level official with ties to Mr Putin could be so publicly dumped was uNPRecedented. But since then, a $200m embezzlement case over a satellite-guidance system has threatened Mr Putin’s chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov. And on November 27th Rossiya-1 channel aired a documentary linking a former agriculture minister, Yelena Skrynnik, to a reported $1.2 billion fraud.
随着国防部长谢尔久科夫的下台，一场初具规模的反腐活动在十月份展开。在调查人员将隶属国防部的一个公司和上亿美元的诈骗案联系起来之后，谢尔久科夫被解除职务。普金以如此公开的方式和这位高官断绝了关系，这也是史上前所未有的。此后不久，一件关于卫星导航系统的涉案金额高达2亿美元的挪用公款案让普金的第一副总理伊万诺夫的地位岌岌可危。11月27日，俄罗斯第一频道又播报了一则和有前农业部长斯科尼科涉案的12亿美元的诈骗案。

For Mr Putin, taking on graft in his own circle has several benefits. It is popular: between 2005 and 2012, corruption rose from tenth to third in the concerns of ordinary Russians. It is also an issue that unites his opponents. Mr Putin may dismiss democratic worries, but he sees himself as a popular leader, responsive to the national will. Legitimacy of a kind matters deeply.
对于普京来说，打击他自己的小圈子里的贪污腐败有几大好处。它深得得民心：在2005至2012七年间，在公众最担心的问题中，腐败问题从第十位上升至了第三位。反腐还可以帮助普京笼络对手。普京可能对人们对民主问题的担忧嗤之以鼻，但他自视为一位很受爱戴的领导人，对于国民愿望总是给予积极的回应。某种合法性是大有关系的。

Eight months after his election to a third term, Mr Putin’s support looks shaky. The polls give him some of his lowest approval ratings ever. So he feels “compelled to carry on a populist course, as if the elections were still ahead of him,” says Nikolay Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Centre. Fighting corruption also defangs the most resonant complaint of the opposition.
在他第三次当选总统的八个月后，普京的拥护者似乎有些动摇。民意调查将普金评为史上最不受欢迎的总统。所以，普京觉得“不得不像大选迫在眉睫那样，实施一些民粹主义方针”， 莫斯科卡内基中心的尼古拉·彼得罗夫说。反腐也最能引起反对派的共鸣。

Launching corruption cases against his inner circle can also rein in excesses that make Mr Putin politically vulnerable and the state ineffectual. In his 12 years in power, bureaucratic corruption has gone “unpunished, unattended, and uncontrolled”, says Elena Panfilova of Transparency International, a lobby group. Worse, state employees now feel emboldened to siphon off resources even without sustaining social stability. Targeting a few high-profile officials can be a way to “introduce a certain level of fear,” Ms Panfilova notes.
针对普京集团的反腐还可以遏制一下官员们的过分行为，正是他们的过分行为使得普京在政治上变得脆弱，也导致整个国家效率低下。当他当政的12年里，官僚腐败已经上升到了“不受惩处，不受看管，不受控制”的地步，来自游说团体透明国际的艾莲娜潘菲洛娃这样说道。更糟糕的是，公务员有恃无恐的吸取资源甚至不考虑维持社会稳定。潘菲洛娃指出把少数高官当作靶子是“让人意识到一定程度的畏惧”的一种方式。

A disruptive public war on corruption also can create more infighting among political and business clans. That seems to be happening at Rostelecom, where two managers are being questioned about a $225m fraudulent loan from VTB, a state-run bank. Control over lucrative telecoms licences may be the real point. Yet an anti-corruption purge can also take on its own uncontrolled momentum, which could make Mr Putin weaker, not stronger.
一场破坏性的公开反腐战争还会造成更多政治和商业派别之间的争斗。这种情况貌似正发生在俄罗斯电信运营商那里，两名经理被怀疑从一家国有银行VTB那里骗贷22500万美金。对有利可图的电信执照的控制可能才是真正的问题所在。然而反腐整肃本身也可能变得无法控制，这会使普京总统变得更软弱而不是更强壮。