经济学人下载:苏格兰可再生能源崛起 或因独立遭受重击

Renewable energy in Scotland
苏格兰的可再生能源之路

Caution to the wind
小心风力

How independence might threaten one of the SNP’s favourite industries
独立是否会威胁苏格兰民族党的支柱产业之一

Twenty minutes from the centre of Glasgow, the tussocky expanse of Eaglesham Moor is popular with dog-walkers and cyclists. These days they enjoy some 90km (56 miles) of paths that have been built on the moor around Whitelee, Europe’s second-biggest onshore wind farm, by the operator, ScottishPower. The site’s appeal is twofold: it is close to a large number of electricity-consuming homes; and a barren moor makes a less controversial place to scatter 215 turbines than, say, a picturesque Highland mountainside. Whitelee’s success—it has expanded twice since starting operations in 2009—reflects the growth of Scotland’s renewable-energy industry as a whole.
距格拉斯哥市中心20分钟路程的地方，有一处由伊格尔沙姆沼泽蔓延开的草丛一直备受遛狗者和自行车爱好者的追捧，而这些天他们又可以尽情漫步在新修建的96千米（56英米）长的沼间小径上，这些小路位于欧洲第二大陆上风电场怀特里附近，由苏格兰电力公司建造。选址在这里具有双重意义：它既靠近需要大量消耗电力的住宅区，同时与如画的苏格兰高地山腰相比，它贫瘠的沼泽地质也是分散安置215个风力涡轮机的不二选择。怀特里风电场的成功——自2009年开始运营至今已扩大了2倍规模，整个反映了苏格兰再生能源产业的发展。

In 2011, for the first time, renewables were the second-biggest source of electricity generated in Scotland, accounting for 27%, behind nuclear power but ahead of coal and gas; in England, renewables generated only 6% of the total. Stand, buffeted, on Eaglesham Moor and you get an inkling of why: around a quarter of all Europe’s wind energy crosses Scotland’s land mass and surrounding waters. Factor in its potential in tidal and wave energy, plus an expertise in North Sea oil and gas that can be transferred to greener industries, and the notion of Scotland as a “Saudi Arabia of renewables” does not seem too far-fetched.
2011年，可再生能源的发电量第一次占据了苏格兰总发电量的27%，成为苏格兰电力的第二大来源——位于核电之后，煤气电力之前；而在英格兰，可再生能源的发电量只占据了6%。如果你置身于伊格尔沙姆沼泽，也许就能对其原因略窥一二了，全欧洲的风能大约有四分之一是从苏格兰的陆地和周围水域穿过的。正是因为有它潜在的潮汐能和波能，再加上能将北海里的油气资源转移到绿色产业中的专利技术，苏格兰被称为“可再生能源中的沙特阿拉伯”也就不难理解了。

The political climate helps, too. At Westminster, bickering within the coalition, especially over wind farms, has stymied progress over renewables. By contrast, the Scottish National Party (SNP), which runs Scotland’s devolved government, has spent years talking up the country’s renewable-energy prowess and British dependence on it. With some justification: Scotland exported 26% of the electricity it generated to the rest of Britain in 2011, and transfers to England are at a record high. The SNP touts energy as a central plank of an independent Scotland’s economy, should voters opt for separation in next year’s referendum.
然而，政治气候也在其中起了推波助澜之用。在威斯敏斯特，联合政府内部经常有争吵，尤其关于风力发电厂。这已经阻碍了可再生能源产业的进步。相比之下，苏格兰民族党，也就是苏格兰自治政府的执政党，几年来一直致力于可再生能源技术的进步，以期获得英国政府对其电力输出的依赖。公平地来说：就2011年一年，苏格兰就向英国其他地区输入了其总电量的26%，达到了对英格兰输电量的最高值。如果在下一年的独立公投中苏格兰人赞成脱离英国独立的话，能源产业有望成为苏格兰独立经济体的核心产业。

Alex Salmond, the first minister, vows that Scotland will generate the equivalent of 100% of its electricity needs from renewable sources by 2020. That pledge might be tough to meet should oil and gas prices fall, making renewables look costlier; but his administration has at least backed his words with action. Within the devolved arrangements, planning decisions are Scotland’s main lever over energy policy. Since 2007, when Mr Salmond first took office, his ministers have approved many more applications for large wind farms (ie, those with a generating capacity of over 50MW) than the Westminster government has for England and Wales. Foreign firms have noticed this enthusiasm for the sector: Areva, Gamesa and Samsung have all said they will open factories making kit for offshore turbines in Scotland.
苏格兰首席部长萨尔蒙德（Alex Salmond）许诺，到2020年苏格兰有望实现电力完全无碳化。但如果油气价格下跌，可再生能源随之上涨，这一承诺便很难实现。不过，萨尔蒙德当局政府仍为实现这一目标付诸实践。在任期间，苏格兰将谋划决策作为控制能源政策的主要手段。自2007年萨尔蒙德先生第一次上台起，当局政府通过了大量的大型风力发电厂的申请（例如，产能功率大于50MW），远远超过了威斯敏斯特政府供给给英格兰和威尔士的发电厂数量。苏格兰政府对能源板块的大力扶持吸引了全球许多知名企业关注：法国的阿海珐集团、西班牙的歌美飒公司以及韩国的三星公司已经决定在苏格兰开设工厂建设海上发电基地。

But external factors have helped, too. In particular, a European Union directive requires Britain to derive 15% of its energy demand from renewables by 2020. Generators of such energy get subsidies from a Westminster scheme funded by consumers throughout Britain. That is a major boon to Scotland’s renewables industry. It is also, potentially, the cause of its biggest worry—one among several.
其中同样也有外部作用，尤其是欧盟促进可再生能源使用指令，其要求到2020年，英国必须有15%的电力来源于可再生能源。为此，英国制定由消费者投资的威斯敏斯特计划，向可再生能源发电厂颁发特殊津贴。这对也的确是一个促进苏格兰的可再生能源产业发展的重大利好消息。然而，这也产生了一个潜在的问题——几个中最严重的问题。

Not everyone is as sanguine about wind farms as the ramblers on Eaglesham Moor. Elsewhere, the proliferating turbines are contentious. As in England, the two strands of environmentalism—the push for green energy and the desire to keep nature pristine—still conflict. Moreover, for most other sites, transmission costs are high. National Grid, which operates the British transmission system, charges electricity generators according to their location relative to demand; Scotland’s windiest spots tend to be remote. Meanwhile, as Professor Paul Younger of Glasgow University points out, Scotland still needs to plug an impending gap in its supply of “baseload” energy (power that is available day and night, regardless of the weather). Buying more gas is the likeliest solution
对于风力发电厂，不是每一个人都如同伊格尔沙姆的漫游者一样乐观。在其他地方，涡轮机数量的增加是备受争议的。在英格兰，两派环境保护论仍然争论不休——一方希望推动绿色能源发展，另一方则希望保持自然的纯洁性。此外，对大多数其他地方来说，输电费用也很昂贵。负责英国电力运输的国家电网，根据电厂与需求地的远近来收取费用；而苏格兰风力最强点则位置偏远。同时，正如格拉斯哥大学的Paul Younger教授所说，弥补“基本装载”能源的供给仍是苏格兰的当务之急（指无论天气好坏，白天晚上都能利用的能量）。要解决这个问题，购买更多的天然气是最优选择。

Beggar they neighbour
乞求他们的邻居

But, despite the SNP’s enthusiasm for both, the biggest shadow over Scotland’s renewables industry is cast by independence. A separated Scotland would probably remain part of the same British energy market: all sides benefit from a system that allows the easy transmission of electricity from England’s power stations to Scotland when the winds are calm up north, and from Scotland’s wind farms to the south on days when they have excess capacity.
但是，尽管苏格兰民族党既大力扶持可再生能源产业，又支持独立，独立问题还是使苏格兰的可再生能源产业笼罩在大片的阴影之下的元凶。脱离英国的苏格兰可能还会保留部分英国能源市场：要想双方实现共赢，只有建立一个这样的系统才有可能，当北部无风时，则允许由英格兰发电站向苏格兰自由运输电力，当北部风电厂发电量过剩时，就从北部运往南部。

The worry is the impact that independence might have on how Britain applies that EU directive. At the moment, no one knows exactly what that will be; but Britain’s government might well prefer to invest in its own renewables industry rather than subsidising Scotland’s, or to buy cheap renewable energy from elsewhere in Europe. Scotland’s competitively priced onshore-wind power would probably find a buyer, but more expensive offshore, tidal and wave energy could be a harder sell.
担忧的是，若苏格兰脱离了英国而独立，那么英国要如何实现欧盟促进可再生能源使用指令所指定的指标？到那个时候，没有人会知道将会变成什么样；但是英国政府也许宁愿加大对本国可再生能源产业的投资，也不会向苏格兰寻求帮助，或者从欧洲其他地方购买廉价的可再生能源。而苏格兰的陆上风能由于价格具有竞争优势也许容易找到买家，不过更为昂贵的近海风能、潮汐能以及波能就很难卖出了。

Fergus Ewing, Scotland’s energy minister, suggests that England, which itself faces an energy shortfall, will need Scottish power regardless: “England will need Scottish energy to keep the lights on by 2015,” he says. But it would be ironic if independence were to undermine one of the SNP’s flagship industries.
苏格兰的能源部长费格斯·尤因 （Fergus Ewing）指出，面临的能源短缺的英格兰无论怎样都会需要苏格兰的能源：“英格兰一直到2015年都需要来自苏格兰的能源把灯点亮，”他说道。如果因为独立而破坏了苏格兰的支柱产业之一，可真是令人啼笑皆非。