经济学人下载:法国经济正步入正轨?政府陷入两难境界

Europe France’s economy
欧洲 法国经济

Austerity stakes
紧缩困境

A reluctant government faces the imperative of public-spending cuts
法国削减公共支出势在必行，政府陷入两难境界

Franse’s finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, staged a charm offensive in London this week to improve his country’s battered economic image. Days after the European Commission had forecast that France would miss its budget-deficit target of 3% of GDP in 2013, a key promise of President Francois Hollande’s, Mr Moscovici urged people to look beyond “simplistic stereotypes”. The government may miss its target, he said, but it was making structural reforms to restore competitiveness and sound public finances.
法国的财务首相皮耶尔 莫斯科维奇本周在伦敦打了漂亮的一仗，改善了法国经济窘迫不堪的形象。欧盟委员会预测法国将难以兑现2013年GDP3%的预算赤字目标，而那是总统弗朗西斯奥朗德的重点承诺。数日之后，莫斯科维奇呼吁人们看穿“单纯的陈见”。他表示，也许政府不能如期完成目标，但它采取结构化改革以恢复竞争力，重塑夯实的公共财政。

The commission’s verdict was sobering. French GDP will grow by 0.1% this year, compared with a government forecast of 0.8%, and the deficit will reach 3.7%. After long defending the 3% target as a sign of its credibility, and insisting on overly ambitious growth forecasts, the government has abruptly switched message to plead for more time. And the commission clearly intends to opt for indulgence.
委员会的裁定是一盆冷水。新的一年，法国GDP增长率将会是0.1%,与政府0.8%的预测相差甚远。而且赤字会达到3.7%.长期坚守3%的目标已成为法国信誉的象征，同时伴随着野心勃勃的增长预测。但风云突变，政府扭转口径，央求着要更多时间。显然，委员会意欲纵容之。

Without much struggle, it seems, France has won the argument that it should not be punished for its failure. It blames poor growth—the commission forecasts a euro-zone recession in 2013—and fears that more belt-tightening might make things worse. The French claim that, judged by the structural deficit, adjusted for the cycle, the government has made a bigger effort than at first appears. Mr Moscovici does not plan an emergency budget to squeeze the deficit back towards 3% this year, partly for fear of provoking “a political and social shock”. Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank chief, said that “putting consolidation off would just shift the problem into the future.” But the German government stayed silent and Wolfgang Schauble, the finance minister, told a newspaper he was “fully confident” thatFrance was on the right track.
虽未曾付出太多的努力，但看上去，法国已经赢得不必为失败而受惩的舆论支持。它责难低下的增长率——委员会预测了2013年欧元区的萧条——并担心紧缩政策会让一切更糟糕。法国宣称，由相对经济周期校准的结构性赤字判断，政府作的努力比表面上的要更为显著。莫斯科维奇并未制定紧急计划以在年内将赤字压缩到3%，部分是由于担心这会引起“政治和社会的震荡。”德国央行主观简魏德曼表示延迟“延迟”只是把问题留给未来。但德国政府保持沉默，而且财政首相沃尔夫冈邵伯向报纸表示他“无比自信”地认为法国经济正步入正轨。

Mr Moscovici may get away with drift once, but he is unlikely to be indulged twice. As it is, letting him off the hook depends on taking seriously his efforts to sort out the public finances. This year, three-quarters of the effort to curb the deficit consists of higher taxes, says the Cour des Comptes, the national auditor. Yet with a total take of over 44% of GDP, Franceis already the most heavily taxed country in the euro. Companies and the rich have been squeezed; investment has gone on hold. The constitutional court has rejected Mr Hollande’s planned 75% top income-tax rate, although the government plans to revive it in another form. Even some Socialist deputies concede that the government cannot go on pushing up taxes.
但事不过三，莫斯科维奇很难继续得到包容。事实上，只有正视他为解决公共财政问题作出的努力才能让他免于责难。据国家审计员Cour des Comptes表示，今年控制赤字的努力有四分之三都用于征收高额税。法国已是欧元区课税最繁重的国家，税收占到GDP的44%。公司和富人保守压榨，投资搁置了。立宪法院拒绝了奥朗德设立最高75%所得税的计划，但政府计划通过别种形势实现它。甚至一些社会党代表也承认政府不能无止尽地抬高税收。

That leaves no choice but cuts in public spending. Mr Moscovici says these will account for “most” of the deficit reduction in the 2014 budget. This is where the hard part begins. The commission forecasts a deficit in 2014 of 3.9%, even higher than in 2013, as well as a rise in unemployment to 11%. The government has begun to float various ideas, such as means-testing family benefits and lengthening the period for pension contributions. A policy review is under way with the aim of eliminating duplication and cutting jobs. The prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, has set up a commission to look into pension reform. “This is all very different to what Socialist governments did before,” says an insider.
如此一来，法国别无选择，唯有削减公共支出。莫斯科维奇表示那会占到2014年预算赤字削减的“大部分”。艰险的征程由此展开。委员会预测2014年的赤字率会达到3.9%，甚至高于2013年的，与此同时失业率会上升至11%。政府集思广益，采用诸如家庭支付能力调查以及延长养老金的供期。首相吉恩马克 艾洛特已成立一个委员会调查养老金改革。“这与此前社会党政府的所作所为大相径庭。”内部人士透露说。

The difficulty is political. It may be evident to outsiders—and to some in the government—that, given its competitiveness and growth problems, France has no choice but to rethink its generous welfare state and well-staffed public sector. But a year after the 2012 election campaign, public debate has barely begun. Mr Hollande was elected on a promise to kick-start growth, cut unemployment and end austerity. Now he presides over recession, rising joblessness—and the need to impose more austerity on dumbfounded voters.
难度在于政治方面。考虑到法国的竞争力和经济增长困境，它除了对优厚的福利和齐整的公共部门加以慎思外别无选择。但2012年选举结束的一年之后，公众的质疑声才刚刚开始泛滥。奥朗德带着促进经济增长，降低失业率和终结紧缩的承诺上任。如今，他要为经济萧条和上涨的失业率买单——以及让投票者目瞪口呆的紧缩政策。