经济学人下载:商政不分家 各国政治变动对经济的影响

Business: Schumpeter: Risky business
商业：熊皮特：冒险的生意

Managers need to watch political risk in developed markets as well as emerging ones.
管理者不仅需要留意新兴市场，还要关注成熟市场的政治风险。

Multinational companies have always paid careful attention to political risk in the developing world.
跨国企业向来密切关注发展中市场的政治风险。

No surprise there, given the risk premium attached to investment in emerging markets.
鉴于那些新兴市场投资的风险溢价，这样积极关注也是理所当然的。

Western businesses turn for advice to consultancies that keep a watchful eye on alarming developments in far-flung places.
远离西方世界的地区因政治原因导致市场发展令人担忧，顾问公司对此密切关注，西方的企业便向这些公司寻求帮助。

There is booming demand for political-risk insurance that can protect companies against shocks, be they coups in Turkey, sanctions against Russia or a debt default by Venezuela.
政治风险保险大受欢迎，它能保护企业不受政治变动的影响，例如土耳其的政变、针对俄罗斯的仲裁、以及委内瑞拉的债务违约等。

Now, however, firms need to pay the same attention to political risk in the developed world.
然而，如今对待成熟市场的政治风险，企业们也必须寄予同样的关注度。

Just consider the latest news from the American election trail.
看看近期美国总统的选举过程就知道了。

The woman who stands between the presidency and a hot-head who wants to tear up the world’s trading system is losing her air of invincibility, due to an unguarded comment about a “basket of deplorables”, a bout of pneumonia and a foolish decision to conceal the illness from voters.
与川普——那位想瓦解全球贸易体系的鲁莽之人——竞选总统的希拉里，一不留神说漏了嘴而指责川普的支持者为 “一群可悲的人”，并向选民隐瞒肺炎发作的症状，而这等愚蠢的行为正在削弱其所向披靡的气势。

Britain’s vote on Brexit in June was a reminder that impossibles may turn into improbables, and then quickly become fact.
今年六月，英国公投选择脱离欧盟就表明曾经的天方夜谭也能成为可能，继而迅速发展为现实。

Businesses now face years of uncertainty as politicians thrash out the details of the Anglo-continental divorce settlement.
政客们正在研究解决 “英国与欧盟的离婚协议” 细节，众多企业从此将面临多年的政治不确定性。

Europe faces various possible crises.
欧洲正面临多种多样的潜在危机。

Spain is on its way to its third election in a year.
西班牙正在酝酿着一年内的第三次选举。

Matteo Renzi, prime minister of Italy, has promised to resign if he loses a constitutional referendum due by the end of the year, which would threaten political turmoil just when the banking system is particularly shaky.
意大利将于今年年底举行宪法公投，其总理马泰奥·伦齐宣布如果自己落选将主动辞去总理一职，此举可能威胁到意大利的政局稳定性，特别在其银行系统正岌岌可危的情况下。

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor and until now the iron woman of European politics, is weakening rapidly because of her unpopular policy on refugees.
而至今仍被称为欧洲政坛铁娘子的德国总理安格拉·默克尔也因其难民政策而不得人心，逐渐失去了影响力。

Plenty of commentators reckon the world of risk is turning upside down.
众多评论家们都认为全球风险指标正在发生180度的大转变。

“Political risk has shifted to the developed world,” gloated a recent column in South Africa’s Rand Daily Mail.
最近一期南非兰德每日邮报的专栏写着 “政治风险已经转移到发达国家”，颇有点幸灾乐祸的意味。

It is easy to see why this idea has traction.
其实要理解为何有人支持这个想法并不难。

The Indian government is both stable and pro-business.
印度政府目前处于和平稳定状态，并积极支持企业发展。

Vladimir Putin has imposed order on Russia, albeit at a horribly high cost.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京维持了俄罗斯的秩序，尽管为此付出了惊人的高昂代价。

China produces five-year plans while America struggles to pass a budget.
中国也制定了一些五年计划，而美国还在费劲力求通过哪项预算法案呢。

But it is a misguided view, nonetheless.
但那种观点仍然具有误导性。

Brazil lurches from one corruption-driven crisis to another.
巴西一次又一次地陷入由贪污导致的危机之中。

Jacob Zuma’s government in South Africa is riven by graft and incompetence.
由雅各布·祖玛领导的南非政府因政府无能和渎职而四分五裂。

The Philippines, which has one of the world’s best recent records on economic growth, has elected a Trumplestiltskin of its own, Rodrigo Duterte.
而近期创下世界最高经济增长记录的菲律宾也难逃一劫：其人民选举了 “菲律宾川普” ——罗德里戈·杜特尔特——作为其国家领导人。

There isn’t a fixed lump of “instability” to be distributed around the globe.
目前，我们无法将全球哪些区域定义为 “不稳定”。

At the moment political turmoil is on the rise across most of the world.
因为政治动荡正在全球大范围扩张。