经济学人下载:自由交换 美墨两国的经济隔阂比墙还厚(下)

The sniping is unfair.
这样的指责其实是不公正的。

Unexpected shocks prevented the deal from reaching its full potential.
意想不到的危机使得这份协定没办法充分展示其潜力。

Both the peso crisis of 1994-95 and the global financial crisis dealt blows to trade between the two countries.
1994年至1995年的比索危机以及全球金融危机对美墨两国的贸易造成了巨大的打击。

So did the American border controls introduced after the attacks of September 11th 2001, which raised the cost of moving goods and people.
再加上2001年9月11日美国本土遭受袭击之后推行的边境控制，更是提高了商品运输和人们出行的流通成本，同样也对两国贸易构成打击。

The rapid, disruptive growth of China also interfered with North American integration.
中国经济迅疾而又极具颠覆性的发展也影响到北美经济一体化进程。

The Chinese economy, accounting for more than 13% of global exports and around 25% of global manufacturing value-added, exerts an irresistible pull on global supply chains.
占到全球出口总额13％以上，全球制造业增加值约25%的中国经济，对全球供应链有着难以抗拒的吸引力。

Nor is NAFTA chiefly responsible for the woes of the American worker.
然而对于美国的工人来说，北美自由贸易协定并不是他们痛苦的主要来源。

In a recent essay Brad DeLong, an economic historian at the University of California, Berkeley, reckoned NAFTA might be blamed for net job losses of the order of 0.1% of the American labor force—fewer jobs than the American economy adds in a typical month.
加州伯克利大学的经济学史家布拉德帝龙在最近的一篇论文中指出，美国劳动力人口中只有0.1％的净裁员可以归咎于北美自由贸易协定，而这个数目比美国经济体一个月内增加的工作岗位数还要少。

Even without NAFTA, manufacturing jobs would have dwindled.
即使北美自由贸易协定没有签署，制造业的工作岗位也还是会减少。

The strong dollar and better transport and communications technology made it more attractive to produce abroad.
坚挺的美元、优质的运输以及发达的通信技术都使得将工厂开在国外如此吸引人。

Automation hastened the persistent long-term decline in industrial employment that is familiar in all rich economies— even in export powerhouses such as Germany.
自动化则加速了长久以来工业领域就业的下滑，这一现象在发达国家很常见，即便是如德国这样的出口大国。

Most important, the failure to agree a trade deal with Mexico would not have altered North American geography.
最为重要的是，与墨西哥达成贸易协定的失败并不会改变北美的地理情况。

Mexico shares a 3,200km-long border with the world’s largest economy.
墨西哥与美国，世界上最大的经济体接壤，边境线达3200千米之远。

It is almost inevitable that America will be Mexico’s largest trading partner (America currently accounts for more than 70% of Mexican exports and more than 50% of its imports) .
几乎不可避免，美国将成为墨西哥最大的贸易伙伴 (现今墨西哥出口量超过70％销往美国，进口量超过50%源于美国。)

Deep familial and cultural ties across the border shrink the distance between them even more.
美墨两国间深厚的家族和文化渊源进一步缩短了两国间的距离。

Mexico cannot help but be critically dependent on its neighbor’s economy.
墨西哥只能紧紧地依附于其邻国美国的经济。

And America unquestionably benefits when Mexico, which has the world’s tenth-largest population and 15th-biggest economy, is more prosperous.
毫无疑问，当墨西哥这个拥有世界上第10大人口、第15大国土的国家更加繁荣昌盛时，美国也会受益更多。

A richer Mexico would buy more American goods and services and provide more ideas, talent and innovation.
更加富裕的墨西哥会从美国购买更多的商品和服务，并为之提供更多的想法、人才和革新。

It would also be better placed to manage migration, and a stronger diplomatic partner.
墨西哥也许可以更好地处理移民问题，成为美国更为强大的外交伙伴。

Eliminating tariffs on Mexico would not instantly transform it into Canada, but the notion that higher trade costs between the two economies would serve American interests better is, at best, short-sighted.
免除墨西哥商品的关税不会使墨西哥立即转变为加拿大那样的国家，调高美墨两国之间的贸易成本会对美国更加有利的观点，充其量只是一种目光短浅的看法。

No wall can insulate America against events to its south, and Americans’ own well-being is intimately linked to the welfare of their around 125m Mexican neighbors.
没有哪一堵墙可以将美国的事件与南方的墨西哥隔绝开，毕竟美国自身的经济状况与拥有1.25亿人口的墨西哥邻国的福祉紧密相连。

It is hard to blame Americans for seeing globalization as a zero-sum affair.
美国人将全球化视为一场零和博弈也并不完全是他们的过错。

Stagnant pay, rising inequality and government complacency as industrial regions suffered long-term decline have obscured the benefits of trade and created fertile ground for populists.
工业区逐年衰落，停滞不前的薪酬、加剧的不平等和政府自满遮盖了国家从贸易中取得的利益，也为民粹主义者的嘲讽创造了契机。

As a result Americans feel let down by NAFTA.
因此，美国人对北美自由贸易协定倍感失望。

Yet NAFTA has itself been let down by American leaders, who neither made the case that higher living standards are a positive-sum game, nor allowed the benefits of growth to be broadly shared.
美国领导层同样对北美自由贸易协定失望不已，但是他们既没有认识到该协定是一个可以同时提高本国人民生活水平的正和博弈，也阻止了其发展成果广泛共享，北美自由贸易协定在实施过程中也受到很多阻碍。

If the upshot is the disintegration of the North American economy, those on both sides of the Rio Grande will be worse off.
如果说这份贸易协定带来的结果是北美经济的分崩离析，只怕美墨两国情况都会更加糟糕。