经济学人下载:巨无霸汉堡指数 强大的美元

Finance and Economics
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The Big Mac Index: The All Meaty Dollar
巨无霸汉堡指数：强大的美元

Burgernomics gets to grips with a strong greenback.
汉堡经济学发现美元走强。

IT is perhaps not surprising that the worst-performing major currency in the world this year is the Turkish lira.
或许毫无意外，今年全世界表现最差的货币就是土耳其里拉。

Many emerging-market currencies have taken a battering since the election in November of Donald Trump raised expectations of faster monetary tightening in America and sent the dollar soaring.
由于特朗普去年11月份当选美国总统提振了收紧美国货币政策和美元走强的预期，许多新兴市场的货币遭受重创。

But the lira has many other troubles to contend with, too: terrorist bombings, an economic slowdown, alarm over plans by the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to strengthen his powers, and a central bank reluctant to raise interest rates to defend the currency.
但是里拉也有许多其他的问题要应对：轰炸恐怖势力，经济衰退，对总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安为了巩固政权提出的计划造成的恐慌，同时中央银行不愿意提高利率而保护币值。

It has plunged to record lows.
里拉已经降至历史低点。

According to the Big Mac index, our patty-powered currency guide, it is now undervalued by 45.7% against the dollar.
巨无霸汉堡指数是我们基于馅饼的货币指导，根据这项指数，里拉如今兑美元的价值被低估45.7%。

The Big Mac index is built on the idea of purchasing-power parity, the theory that in the long run currencies will converge until the same amount of money buys the same amount of goods and services in every country.
巨无霸汉堡指数的建立基于购买力平价的思想，该理论认为在长期中，各种货币价值会汇集于一点，直到相同数量的货币能在每个国家购买相同数量的商品和服务。

A Big Mac currently costs $5.06 in America but just 10.75 lira ($2.75) in Turkey, implying that the lira is undervalued.
要制作一个巨无霸汉堡，在美国花费5.06美元，而在土耳其花费10.75里拉（2.75美元），这表明里拉价值被低估。

However, other currencies are even cheaper.
然而，其他货币的价值更为低廉。

In Big Mac terms, the Mexican peso is undervalued by a whacking 55.9% against the greenback.
根据巨无霸汉堡的角度看，墨西哥比索兑美元比率竟被低估55.9%之巨。

This week it also plumbed a record low as Mr Trump reiterated some of his campaign threats against Mexico.
本周，随着特朗普重申他竞选过程中对墨西哥的一些威胁言论，比索下降至历史低点。

The peso has lost a tenth of its value against the dollar since November.
自11月以来，墨西哥比索兑美元汇价损失了十分之一。

Of big countries, only Russia offers a cheaper Big Mac, in dollar terms, even though the rouble has strengthened over the past year.
以美元来看，在各大国中，唯独俄罗斯的巨无霸汉堡便宜的多，即便俄罗斯货币卢布在过去这一年中一直在增值。

The euro zone is also prey to political uncertainty.
欧元区也饱受政局风波之苦。

Elections are scheduled this year in the Netherlands, France and Germany, and possible in Italy.
今年，荷兰、法国、德国甚至可能连意大利的大选都被提上议程。

The euro recently fell to its lowest level since 2003.
欧元近来跌至自2003年来的最低水平。

Britain’s Brexit vote has had an even bigger effect on the pound, which has fallen to $1.21, a 31-year low.
英国的脱欧公投已给英镑带来的影响甚至更大，英镑已经跌至1.21美元，是31年来的最低水平。

According to the Big Mac index, the euro and the pound are undervalued against the dollar by 19.7% and 26.3%, respectively.
根据巨无霸汉堡指数，欧元和英镑兑美元汇率各被低估19.7%和26.3%。

One of the drawbacks of the Big Mac index is that it takes no account of labour costs.
巨无霸汉堡指数的缺陷之一是没有考虑劳动力成本。

It should surprise no one that a Big Mac costs less in Shanghai than it does in San Francisco, since Chinese workers earn far less than their American counterparts.
如果说一个上海的巨无霸汉堡成本低于旧金山的，应该也不会令人意外，因为中国劳工收入远远低于他们在美国的同行们。

So in a slightly more sophisticated version of the Big Mac index, we take account of a country’s average income.
因此，在稍微复杂一些的巨无霸汉堡指数中，我们考虑了一国的平均收入。

Historically, this adjustment has tended to raise currencies’ valuations against the dollar, so emerging-market currencies tend to look more reasonably priced.
从历史上来看，这种调整意在提高货币兑美元的估价，因此新兴货币的价格看起来会更加合理。

The Chinese yuan, for example, is 44% undervalued against the dollar according to our baseline Big Mac index, but only 7% according to the adjusted one.
以中国的人民币为例，根据我们的基线巨无霸汉堡指数，兑美元的汇率被低估44%，但是根据调整后的指数计算，仅被低估7%。

The deluxe Big Mac index has typically made rich-world currencies look more expensive.
豪华版的巨无霸汉堡指数通常使得富裕国家货币显得更高昂。

Because western Europeans have higher costs of living and lower incomes than Americans, the euro has traded at around a 25% premium against the dollar in income-adjusted burger terms since the euro’s inception.
但是，因为西欧居民相比美国居民的生活成本更高、收入更低，所以以收入调整的汉堡指数来看，自欧元启动以来，欧元对美元的兑换比率存在大约25%的溢价。

But what once seemed to be an immutable axiom of burgernomics is true no longer.
但是过去一直被认为是真理的汉堡经济原理不再一定正确了。

So strong is the dollar that even the adjusted Big Mac index finds the euro undervalued.
美元如此强势以至于用调整后的巨无霸汉堡指数都得出欧元低估的结论。

The dollar is now trading at a 14-year high in trade-weighted terms.
以贸易加权的角度看，美元汇率现在正处在十四年来的高点。

Emerging-world economies may struggle to pay off dollar-denominated debts.
新兴世界经济体也许将艰难地支付美元标价的债务。

American firms may find themselves at a disadvantage against foreign competition.
美国企业或许将发觉自己面对外国竞争处于不利地位。

And American tourists will get more burgers for their buck in Europe.
同时，美国游客将可以用他们的美元在欧洲买到更多的汉堡包。