经济学人下载:气候变化与尼罗河:洪水和饥荒(2)

That may seem like a good thing, but it could also grow more variable, by 50%.
这似乎是一件好事，但有50%的可能性，它也可能会带来更多的变数。

In other words, there would be more (and worse) floods and droughts.
换句话说，会有更多的（同时更严重的）的洪水和干旱。

There is, of course, uncertainty in the projections, not least because differing global climate models give different numbers.
当然，预测中存在着不确定性，尤其是因为不同的全球气候模型给出了不同的数据。

But the idea that the flow of the Nile is likely to become more variable is lent credibility, the authors argue, by the fact that trends over decades seem to agree with them, and by consideration of the effects of El Ninos.
但是，尼罗河的流量可能会变得更为多变的说法是具有可信度的，作者认为，事实上，考虑到厄尔尼诺的影响，在过去几十年显示的趋势印证了他们的观点。

These colossal climatic oscillations, driven by changes in the temperature of the Pacific, are correlated with the Nile's flow, and climate-change studies suggesting more extreme El Ni?os in years to come thus bolster the idea of a more variable Nile.
在太平洋的温度变化驱动下，这些巨大的气候变化与尼罗河的流量相关，并且气候变化的研究表明近年来将出现更加极端的厄尔尼诺现象，从而印证了更可变的尼罗河流量的说法。

More storage capacity will be needed to smooth out the Nile's flow.
因此需要存储更多的水量来缓解尼罗河的流量变化。

But unlike Egypt's large Aswan Dam, which was built with storage in mind, the new Ethiopian one is designed for electricity production.
但与埃及的大阿斯旺水坝不同，它是以存储的方式建造的，新埃塞俄比亚的是为电力生产而设计的。

Once water starts gushing through its turbines, it is expected to produce over 6,000 megawatts of power.
一旦水开始从涡轮机中喷涌出来，预计发电量将超过6000兆瓦。

It is unclear, though, if the structure has the necessary flexibility to meet downstream demands in periods of prolonged drought.
但是，目前尚不清楚是否该结构具备在长期干旱期间满足下游需求的必要的灵活性。

The talks between the three countries seem to be glossing over the potential effects of climate change.
三国之间的会谈似乎想要掩饰这种气候变化带来的潜在影响。

The filling of the reservoir is being negotiated in terms of years, but nature may not co-operate with their timeline.
水库的填筑是以年为单位进行谈判的，但自然可能不配合他们的时间表。

The countries would be better off focusing on how much water is needed downstream, which will vary in wet and dry years, say experts.
专家们说，这些国家不应继续将重点放在下游需要多少水上，因为随着干湿年份而有所不同。

Similar considerations will need be taken into account when running the dam.
他们应该考虑的是水坝的运作。

“Nowhere in the world are two such large dams on the same river operated without close co-ordination,” says another study from MIT.
麻省理工学院的另一项研究表明：“世界上没有两个在同一条河流上的大坝是没有密切协调的运作的”。

But so far co-operation is in short supply.
但到目前为止，合作仍是难以达成。

The latest round of talks has been postponed.
最新一轮谈判已被推迟。

Even the methodology of impact studies is cause for wrangling.
甚至研究大坝造成的影响的方法也引起了各方的争论。

Once the dam is up and running, the Nile's variability will be controllable for some 60 years, say Messrs Siam and Eltahir.
Messrs Siam和Eltahir说，一旦大坝建成并运行，尼罗河的流量变化将在大约60年内可以控制。

That assumes the dam is flexible enough and that the countries work together.
但这要基于大坝具有足够的灵活性并且要在各国的共同努力的基础上才得以完成。

Even then, storage would have to be increased by about 45% to keep things steady for the next 60 years.
即便如此，在接下来的60年里，储存量必须增加45%左右才能够保持尼罗河水量的稳定。

So the countries have time to build new dams; but that will need even greater co-operation.
如果这样的话，各国就有时间去建造新的水坝了，但这仍然需要进一步的合作。