经济学人下载:民粹主义政策:对移民强硬是对是错(1)

Leaders
领导者

Left behind
落在后面

The right way to help places hurt by globalisation.
帮助受全球化伤害地区的正确之路。

Populism's wave has yet to crest.
民粹主义浪潮尚未达到高峰。

That is the sobering lesson of recent elections in Germany and Austria, where the success of anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties showed that a message of hostility to elites and outsiders resonates as strongly as ever among those fed up with the status quo.
这是来自德国和奥地利的最近大选的令人深思的教训，那里的反移民、反全球化政党的成功表明，一种对于精英和外来者的敌意信息在不满现状的人群仍然如以前一样强烈地产生共鸣。

It is also the lesson from America, where Donald Trump is doubling down on gestures to his angry base, most recently by adopting a negotiating position on NAFTA that is more likely to wreck than remake the trade agreement.
这也是来自美国的教训，他们的川普正在加大对愤怒的票仓之姿态的赌注，最近的举措是在NAFAT（《北美自由贸易协定》）上采取了一种更有可能摧毁而不是重塑这一贸易协议的谈判立场。

These remedies will not work.
这些解决方案不会管用。

The demise of NAFTA will disproportionately hurt the blue-collar workers who back Mr.Trump.
NAFAT的死亡将不成比例地伤害支持川普的蓝领工人。

Getting tough on immigrants will do nothing to improve economic conditions in eastern Germany, where 20% of voters backed the far-right Alternative for Germany.
对移民强硬将丝毫不能改善德国东部的经济环境，那里20%的选民支持了德国选择党。

But the self-defeating nature of populist policies will not blunt their appeal.
但是，民粹主义政策这种自欺欺人的性质不会消弱它们的吸引力。

Mainstream parties must offer voters who feel left behind a better vision of the future, one that takes greater account of the geographical reality behind the politics of anger.
主流政党必须给觉得被落在后面的选民提供一种更好的未来愿景，一种更多地考虑到愤怒政治背后的地理现实的未来愿景。

Economic theory suggests that regional inequalities should diminish as poorer (and cheaper) places attract investment and grow faster than richer ones.
经济学理论认为，随着较为贫穷（和较为廉价的）地区吸引投资并比较为富裕的地区更快地增长，地区不平等应当逐渐消失。

The 20th century bore that theory out: income gaps narrowed across American states and European regions.
20世纪证实了这个理论：美国各州之间以及欧洲各国之间的收入差距缩小了。

No longer.
时移世易。

Affluent places are now pulling away from poorer ones.
如今，富足的地区正在撤离较为贫穷的地区。

This geographical divergence has dramatic consequences.
这种地理差异具有戏剧性的后果。

A child born in the bottom 20% in wealthy San Francisco has twice as much chance as a similar child in Detroit of ending up in the top 20% as an adult.
出生在富裕的旧金山底层五分之一的孩子有着两倍于出生在底特律的同样孩子在成年后跻身顶层五分之一的机会。