经济学人下载:欧元区经济:保持信心(1)

Central banking can be agonising. The effect of monetary policy on the economy is not immediate,
中央银行可能很痛苦。货币政策对经济的影响并非即刻见效，

so decisions must be based on expectations for two years' time. That means putting faith in forecasts that could well turn out to be wrong.
因此必须根据对未来两年的预期来做决策。这意味着要对那些可能是错误的预测有信心。

Some soul-searching might be expected at the monetary-policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on December 13th.
或许有望在12月13日的欧洲中央银行（ECB）货币政策会议上进行一些深刻反思。

Since 2015 it has stimulated the euro-zone economy by buying bonds worth 2.6trn euros ($3trn) under its quantitative-easing programme.
自2015年以来，该行通过其“量化宽松”计划购入了价值26000亿欧元（30000亿美元）的债券以刺激欧元区经济。

In June it said it planned to stop asset purchases by the end of the year (though it will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds),
6月该行表示计划于年底停止资产收购（虽然它会继续将到期债券的收益用于再投资），

and to keep interest rates at their current rock-bottom levels "through the summer" of 2019.
并且2019整个夏季的利率将维持在目前的最低水平。

Since then, though, economic growth has slowed and inflation, stripped of oil-price rises, has stayed resolutely low.
虽然自那时起，经济增长已经放缓，且通货膨胀（除石油价格在增长）已维持在绝对的低水平。

The question is how persistent these developments will be.
问题是这些进展将会维持多久呢。

After an impressive showing in 2017, the euro zone's economy has weakened. Temporary factors bear some of the blame.
自2017年的那一次惊艳表现后，欧元区经济疲软。临时因素要承担部分责任。

Poor weather, strikes and a bad flu season marred the start of the year.
年初就遭遇了恶劣的天气、罢工以及糟糕的流感季。

Then in the third quarter of 2018 output was 0.2% higher than in the second, the slowest growth since 2014.
然后2018年第三季度的产出比第二季度高0.2%，这是自2014年以来最为缓慢的增长。

New emissions tests in September meant carmakers put production on hold while they rushed to certify their stock of vehicles.
9月新的尾气测试意味着在汽车制造商们急着证明自己的车辆库存时，他们的生产将被搁置。

As a result, in the third quarter the German economy— the bloc's powerhouse—contracted for the first time in nearly four years.
因此，在第三季度，德国经济—欧元区的强国—近四年来首次萎缩。

In 2017 trade provided a welcome boost to the euro zone.
2017年贸易为欧元区提供了喜人的增长。

This year demand for exports has moderated, dampening growth, most notably in Germany and Italy.
今年对出口商品的需求缓和，增长受到抑制，这在德国和意大利尤为显著。

Domestic demand has picked up some of the slack, particularly in France and Spain. But it has not fully offset the effects of the trade slowdown on the bloc.
国内需求有所恢复，尤其是在法国和西班牙。但是这不足以抵消欧元区内贸易放缓的影响。