经济学人下载:全球化放缓(3)

Trade is suffering as firms use up the inventories they had stocked in anticipation of higher tariffs. Expect more of this in 2019. But what really matters is firms’ long-term investment plans, as they begin to lower their exposure to countries and industries that carry high geopolitical risk or face unstable rules. There are now signs that an adjustment is beginning. Chinese investment into Europe and America fell by 73% in 2018. The global value of cross-border investment by multinational companies sank by about 20% in 2018.
预期关税将会提高，导致企业会耗尽库存，贸易因而受到影响。预计2019影响会更严重。但真正有影响力的是企业的长期投资计划，因为计划开始降低对那些地缘政治风险较高或面临不稳定规则的国家和行业的风险敞口。现在有迹象表明，调整正在启动。2018年，中国对欧洲和美国的投资下降了73%。同年，跨国公司跨国投资的全球价值下降了20%。

The new world will work differently. Slowbalisation will lead to deeper links within regional blocs. Supply chains in North America, Europe and Asia are sourcing more from closer to home. In Asia and Europe most trade is already intra-regional, and the share has risen since 2011. Asian firms made more foreign sales within Asia than in America in 2017. As global rules decay, a fluid patchwork of regional deals and spheres of influence is asserting control over trade and investment. The European Union is stamping its authority on banking, tech and foreign investment, for example. China hopes to agree on a regional trade deal this year, even as its tech firms expand across Asia. Companies have $30trn of cross-border investment in the ground, some of which may need to be shifted, sold or shut.
新世界将以不同的方式运转。全球化放缓将导致区域集团内部更深层次的联系。北美、欧洲和亚洲的供应链正在从更近的地方采购。亚洲和欧洲大部分贸易已经在区域内进行，而这一比例自2011年以来一直在上升。2017年，亚洲公司在亚洲的海外销售额超过了在美国的销售额。随着全球规则的衰落，各种地区性协议和势力范围的不稳定拼凑，正在加强对贸易和投资的控制。例如，欧盟正在加强对银行、科技和外国投资的监管。尽管中国的科技公司正在亚洲各地扩张，但中国希望今年能达成一项区域贸易协议。其企业在亚洲有30万亿美元的跨境投资，其中一些可能需要转移、出售或关闭。

Fortunately, this need not be a disaster for living standards. Continental-sized markets are large enough to prosper. Some 1.2bn people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990, and there is no reason to think that the proportion of paupers will rise again. Western consumers will continue to reap large net benefits from trade. In some cases, deeper integration will take place at a regional level than could have happened at a global one.
幸运的是，对于生活水平而言，这未必是一场灾难。洲规模的市场足够大，足以繁荣。自1990年以来，约有12亿人摆脱了极度贫困，而且没有理由表明贫困比例会再次上升。西方消费者将继续从贸易中获得巨大的净收益。在某些情况下，区域级的一体化程度将超过全球级。