经济学人下载:伊朗伊斯兰革命四十年(1)

The Iranian revolution at 40
伊朗革命40周年

How to deal with the mullahs
如何对付毛拉

The Islamic revolution has failed, but Donald Trump’s sanctions could prolong it
伊斯兰革命已失败，但唐纳德·特朗普的制裁可能将其延长

The cry of “Death to America!” has rung out in Tehran every Friday since the Islamic revolution of 1979. But the ritual is hollow. The mullahs know they have failed their people. Iranians are much poorer than they should be; promises of justice have been drowned in the blood of enemies and supposed sinners; and theocracy has made Iranians less pious. Protests occur often, even among the poor who make up the regime’s base.
“美国去死吧!”自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，每周五都有这样的声音在德黑兰响起。但这种仪式虚有其表。毛拉们明白自己已失人心。伊朗人民本不应如此贫穷；公平的承诺已淹没在敌人和所谓罪人的鲜血中。神权政治让伊朗人少了些许虔诚。即使是构成政权基础的穷人也经常发起抗议活动。

Yet the mullahs remain in charge, despite war, sanctions and decades of enmity with America—or perhaps because of them. To the alarm of Israel and many Arab states, Iran has spread its influence, helping save the odious regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and ensuring that the Saudis remain bogged down in Yemen. Its Lebanese client, Hizbullah, poses a grave threat to Israel. In Europe Iranian spooks are accused of plotting to kill dissidents.
但尽管经历了战争、制裁以及与美国数十年的敌对状态（或许正是这些原因），毛拉们仍然掌权。伊朗扩大了自己的影响力，帮助拯救了叙利亚可憎的巴沙尔阿萨德政权，并确保沙特仍深陷也门泥潭，这让以色列和诸多阿拉伯国家感到震惊。其黎巴嫩客户真主党对以色列构成了严重威胁。在欧洲，伊朗间谍被指控密谋杀害持不同政见者。

For President Donald Trump, Iran is a unique menace. He has abandoned Barack Obama’s nuclear deal in favour of tight sanctions. His officials will try to forge an anti-Iran alliance at a conference in Poland on February 13th-14th. In seeking “maximum pressure”, America may hope to stir another uprising to reverse the one of 1979. But it will probably make things worse.
对于美国总统唐纳德•特朗普来说，伊朗是一个独特的威胁。特朗普放弃了巴拉克•奥巴马的核协议，转而支持实施严厉制裁。其官员将在2月13日至14日在波兰举行的会议上试图建立一个反伊朗联盟。在寻求“最大压力”的过程中，美国可能希望激起另一场起义来推翻1979年的起义。但这可能雪上加霜。

The mullahs have a woeful record. Their theocracy helped turn Islam into a tool of radical, and often violent, politics. But Iran’s was not the Middle East’s only convulsion in 1979. The siege of the grand mosque in Mecca stung Saudi Arabia into promoting its rival Sunni brand of ultra-puritanism at home and abroad. Together with America, the Saudis helped weaponise Sunnism by supporting mujahideen fighters against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Arabs who volunteered to fight with them became the godfathers of jihadism. America, pledging to protect Gulf oil against outsiders, was drawn deep into the region’s conflicts.
毛拉们有此悲惨经历。其神权政治帮助伊斯兰教成为激进的、通常是暴力的政治工具。但伊朗不是1979年中东唯一动荡的地方。麦加大清真寺被围困，促使沙特阿拉伯在国内外宣扬其竞争对手逊尼派的极端清教主义。沙特和美国一起，通过支持圣战者抵抗苏联入侵阿富汗，帮助逊尼派武装起来。阿拉伯人和逊尼派共同战斗，成为圣战主义的教父。美国承诺保护海湾地区的石油不受外来者的影响，因此深度卷入了该地区的冲突之中。