经济学人下载:人口即命运? (1)

For centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution, Asia's massively populous societies made the continent the world's centre of economic gravity.
工业革命几个世纪前，亚洲的人口大国使这片大陆成为世界经济重心。

Industrialisation in Europe and North America in the 19th century briefly knocked it from its perch.
19世纪，欧洲和北美工业革命暂时将其挤下高位。

But now their collective economic might, measured in real output on a purchasing-power-parity basis,
但现在截止到2020年，他们的集体经济（以购买力平价基础，计算其实际产出）

is forecast to account for more than half of global production by 2020.
预计可能占全球生产的一半多。

Was the West's period of dominance an anomaly, which could only ever have been short-lived? Is population destiny?
西方的支配时期只是个短暂存在异类么？人口即命运么？

It stands to reason that countries with larger populations might enjoy long-run economic advantages.
显然人口较多的国家可能享有长期的经济优势。

People are the raw material of economic growth, after all. The more there are, the greater the likelihood that one becomes a Gutenberg or a Watt.
毕竟人口是经济增长的原料。人口越多，就越有可能出现古腾堡或瓦特这类人。

In a world without much international trade, populous countries offer the largest markets,
在一个没有太过国际贸易的世界中，人口大国提供最大的市场

and comparatively more opportunity to boost economic output through specialisation and trade.
以及相对更多的机会，可以通过专业化和贸易促进经济产出。

Projecting economic growth rates is fantastically hard even over very short time horizons; over centuries, it is as good as impossible.
预测短期内的经济增长率非常困难；几个世纪更是近乎不可能。

But there are worse strategies than betting on the places with the most people.
但还有比把赌注压在人最多的地方更糟糕的策略。

Klaus Desmet of Southern Methodist University, David Krisztian Nagy of CREI, a research institute,
南卫理工会大学的Klaus Desmet，研究机构CREI的David Krisztian Nagy

and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg of Princeton University do just that.
以及普林斯顿大学的Esteban Rossi-Hansberg正是这么做的。

In a paper that last month won them the Robert Lucas prize, which recognises excellent research in political economy,
他们上个月发表的论文获得了罗伯特·卢卡斯奖，该奖项是表彰政治经济中的杰出研究，

they build a model that yokes economic performance to population size,
他们建立了一个模型，将经济表现和人口规模相结合，

within which they can run time forward by hundreds of years to watch the balance of economic power change.
通过该模型，他们可以将时间推进几百年以观测经济实力变化的平衡。

Long-run growth, they suggest, is driven by improvements in technology.
他们认为长期增长是由技术的改善所驱动的。

And more populous countries should accumulate more innovation than smaller ones do
人口越多的国家应该比人口较少的国家积累更多的创新

because the return on developing a new technology is higher—there are more people to buy Edison's light bulb and to enrich Edison,
因为发开一项新技术的回报更高—有更多的人会去购买爱迪生的电灯泡并让他变得富足，

and therefore more incentive to invent the light bulb in the first place.
因此发明电灯泡的动机就越多。