经济学人下载:伦敦金融城能否挺过英国退欧(1)

Leaders
来源于《社论》版块

Can the City survive Brexit?
伦敦金融城能否挺过英国退欧?

The biggest international financial centre in the world faces its toughest test
世界上最大的国际金融中心面临着最严峻的考验

The world has a handful of great commercial hubs. Silicon Valley dominates technology. For electronics, head to Shenzhen. The home of luxury is Paris and the capital of outsourcing is Bangalore, in India. One of the mightiest clusters of all is London, which hosts the globe’s largest international financial centre. Within a square mile on the Thames, a multinational firm can sell $5bn of shares in 20 minutes, or a European startup can raise seed finance from Asian pensioners. You can insure container ships or a pop star’s vocal cords. Companies can hedge the risk that a factory anywhere on the planet will face a volatile currency or hurricanes and a rising sea level a decade from now.
世界上有几个伟大的商业中心。硅谷主导着科技。深圳主要是电子产品。奢侈品之乡是巴黎，外包之都是印度的班加罗尔。其中最强大的集群之一是伦敦，拥有全球最大的国际金融中心。在泰晤士河一平方英里内，一家跨国公司可以在20分钟内发行50亿美元的股票，或者一家欧洲初创企业可以从亚洲退休人员那里筹集种子资金。你可以为集装箱船或流行歌星的声带投保。企业可以对冲从现在起10年内，全球任何地方的工厂都将面临汇率波动、飓风和海平面上升的风险。

This metropolis of money, known as the City, generates £120bn ($152bn) of output a year—as much as Germany’s car industry. Because it allocates capital and distributes risk at a vast scale, its influence is global. But now, with a “no-deal” conclusion looking increasingly likely after a change of leader of the Conservative Party, Brexit threatens to rupture Britain’s financial links with the European Union. If Labour wins the next election under Jeremy Corbyn, Britain will also end up with its most left-wing government since 1945, one that is deeply hostile to capital and markets. Either outcome would make the EU poorer and damage London’s position. Together, they could change the workings of the global financial system.
这座被称为“金融城”的金钱之都每年创造1200亿英镑(1520亿美元)的产值，相当于德国整个的汽车业。由于其大规模的资本配置和风险分配，其影响是全球性的。但现在，在保守党领导人换届后，“无协议脱欧”的可能性似乎越来越大，英国退欧可能会破坏英国与欧盟的金融联系。如果工党在杰里米•科尔宾领导下的下届选举中获胜，英国也将迎来自1945年以来最左翼的政府，这个政府对资本和市场极为敌视。无论是哪种结果，都会让欧盟更加贫穷，损害伦敦的地位。它们可以共同改变全球金融体系的运作方式。