经济学人下载:俄罗斯正统论(2)

Sanctions act like a global-capital quarantine. And Russia runs a biggish current-account surplus.
制裁就像是全球资本隔离一样。俄罗斯拥有较大的经常账户盈余。

But Russia is a more hazardous place for equity investors. A stock ought to be a claim on a company's assets.
但对权益投资者而言，俄罗斯是一个更加危险的地方。股票应该是对公司资产的一份声明。

A quick survey of modern history throws up reasons to doubt that such claims are secure.
对现代历史的快速调查让我们有理由怀疑这些声明是否可靠。

In 2003-04 the state seized Yukos, a giant oil company.
在2003年到2004年，政府接管了一家大型石油公司—尤科斯。

More recently a dispute over oil assets between Rosneft, the statebacked firm that absorbed Yukos's assets,
近期收购尤科斯资产的国有公司俄罗斯石油公司和一家大型企业集团Sistema

and Sistema, a big conglomerate, rattled investors and gutted Sistema's share price.
因石油资产产生争端，投资者因而惊慌失措，Sistema的股价一落千丈。

Yet for the intrepid, Russian stocks still have appeal. For a start, they are cheap.
但对于无畏的投资者来说，俄罗斯股市仍然具有吸引力。首先，它们很便宜。

MSCI's Russia index has a price-to earnings ratio of six, compared with 12 for its broader emerging-market index.
和其更广泛的新兴市场指数的12相比，明晟公司（MSCI）俄罗斯指数的市盈率为6.

That kind of value is bait for stockpickers, who hope to sort good long-term bets from the ones that might turn ugly.
对那些希望从可能变糟糕的长期投资中挑选出好股票的选股者而言，这种价值对他们而言是诱饵。

They cautiously avoid firms such as Gazprom, a state-owned gas producer, that are instruments of the Kremlin's strategic goals.
他们小心翼翼地避开国有天然气生产商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司等公司，这些公司是克里姆林宫战略目标的工具。

(American sanctions have made it unwise to hold such stocks in any event.)
（无论如何，美国的制裁使得持有这类股票变得不明智。）

Instead they go for well-run firms with strong consumer brands,
相反，他们寻求那些拥有强大消费者品牌且运营良好的公司

such as Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, or Yandex, its internet-search firm.
如俄罗斯最大的银行俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行，或其互联网搜索公司Yandex。

The state is unlikely to mess with firms on which the economy's day-to-day stability depends.
国家不太可能干预经济日常稳定所依赖的公司。

Give Russia some credit, say boosters. Macro-stability is not a given.
支持者说，给俄罗斯一些信任吧。宏观稳定不是给定的。

Central banks have come under political attack in other emerging markets—India, South Africa and Turkey—and now in America, too.
其他新兴市场的央行也受到了政治攻击—印度、南非和土耳其—现在美国也如此。

Optimists say that plans to cut red tape and increase public investment will lift Russia's GDP growth potential.
乐观主义者表示减少繁文缛节和增加公共投资的计划将增加俄罗斯GDP增长潜力。

Still, for the unwary investor, Russia is a snare. Even old hands can be caught out.
不过，对于粗心的投资者来说，俄罗斯是个陷阱。即使是老手也会遭遇不测情况。

Michael Calvey, the American boss of Baring Vostok, a private-equity firm,
私人股本公司Baring Vostok的美国老板Michael Calvey

was arrested in February amid a conflict with an investment partner who has connections to the security services.
因与一名和安全部门有关的投资伙伴发生冲突而于今年2月被捕。

Despite testimonials from the boss of Sberbank and the founder of Yandex, Mr Calvey remains under house arrest.
虽然有俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行老板和Yandex创始人的证词，但Calvey仍被软禁。

Realists say it is the big-picture stuff that holds the economy back.
现实主义者表示正是全局因素阻碍了经济的发展。

Establishing the rule of law and property takes political will. But it takes time, too.
建立法治和财产制度需要政治意愿。但也需要时间。

In the early 1990s a prominent Western economist was asked how Russia could become a thriving market economy.
在20世纪90年代初期，一位杰出的西方经济学家被问及俄罗斯如何能成为一个繁荣的市场经济。

His advice? "Get yourselves another history."
他的建议？“给你们自己另一段历史。”