经济学人下载:压力之下(1)

Members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, live in a state of uneasy anticipation.
石油输出国组织（简称OPEC）成员国正处于一种不安的预期之中。

Concern about climate change may mean demand for oil wanes in the coming decades. OPEC's power in oil markets is fading fast.
对气候变化的担忧可能意味着未来几十年石油需求的减少。OPEC在石油市场的影响力正在迅速减弱。

On November 13th the International Energy Agency (IEA), an intergovernmental forecaster,
11月13日，政府间预测机构国际能源署 （IEA）预测

predicted that by 2030 OPEC and Russia, an ally, would pump just 47% of the world's crude. Yet OPEC has a more immediate problem at hand.
到2030年，OPEC及其盟国俄罗斯的原油产量将仅占全球的47%。但OPEC面临着一个更为紧迫的问题。

Global demand for oil has been unexpectedly anaemic this year.
今年全球石油需求出人意料地疲软。

Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that it may have risen by just 0.8%, the slowest pace since the financial crisis.
研究公司桑福德伯恩斯坦估计其可能仅增长了0.8%，是金融危机以来的最低增速。

OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, are due to meet in Vienna on December 5th and 6th.
OPEC和俄罗斯领导的盟国将于12月5日和6日在维也纳会面。

The first question is whether they will announce a new plan to support the oil price. If they do, the second question is whether they will stick to it.
第一个问题是他们是否会宣布支持油价的新计划。如果是，那么第二个问题是他们是否会坚持该计划。

Technically, a plan is already in place.
从技术上讲，一个计划已经就位。

In December 2018 the broadened OPEC alliance announced a cut in production of 1.2m barrels a day,
2018年12月，扩大后的OPEC联盟宣布每日减产120万桶，

with the intention of pushing up the price of crude. That agreement has been extended to March 2020.
其目的是推高原油价格。该协议已被延期至2020年3月。

But several OPEC members, including Iraq and Nigeria, have frequently pumped more oil than allowed by last year's deal.
但包括伊拉克和尼日利亚在内的几个OPEC成员国，经常超出去年协议规定的产量。

Russia was supposed to help OPEC move into a new era.
俄罗斯本应帮助OPEC进入一个新时代。

But the starting point from which it agreed to cut production was unusually high—
但其同意的减产起点异常的高—

and output this year has exceeded its quota even so.
尽管如此，今年的产量还是超过了配额。

The country's oil industry "is really chafing under these production cuts", says Aaron Brady of IHS Markit, a data and research firm.
数据和研究公司IHS Markit的Aaron Brady表示，这个国家的石油工业“真的对减产感到恼火”。

The result is that Russia's average daily production so far in 2019, after the OPEC deal to lower output,
其结果是，在OPEC达成减产协议后，俄罗斯2019年迄今为止的平均日产量

is higher than the average in 2018, before the deal was struck. Saudi Arabia has adjusted accordingly.
高于达成协议前2018年的平均水平。沙特阿拉伯也做出了相应调整。

In July and August, for instance, the kingdom cut output by more than twice the amount required by last year's agreement.
例如，在7月和8月，沙特削减的产量是去年协议要求的两倍多。

But such efforts have proved insufficient to lift oil prices. On the face of it, they should have been buoyant.
但事实证明，这些努力不足以提振油价。从表面上看，油价本应该上涨。

American sanctions have clamped down on exports from Venezuela and Iran,
美国的制裁已经强行压制了委内瑞拉和伊朗的出口，

respectively the possessors of the world's largest and fourth-largest proved oil reserves. Tankers have been seized in the Gulf.
这两个国家分别拥有世界上最大和第四大的石油探明储量。油轮在海湾被扣押。

Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, is at risk of being engulfed by protests.
OPEC的第二大产油国伊朗面临着被抗议活动吞没的风险。

Most notably, in September a drone attack knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's production.
最引人注目的是，今年9月的一次无人机袭击摧毁了沙特阿拉伯一半以上的石油产量。

The loss was more severe than that caused by the Iranian revolution in 1979 or Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
其损失比1979年伊朗革命和1990年伊拉克入侵科威特造成的损失更为严重。