经济学人下载:圣诞节前英国的噩梦(2)

The Conservatives, too, have grown scarier since 2017. Mr Johnson has ditched the Brexit deal negotiated by Theresa May and struck a worse one, in effect lopping off Northern Ireland so that Britain can leave the European Union’s customs union. The public are so sick of the whole fiasco that his promise to “get Brexit done” wins votes. But he would do no such thing. After Britain had left the EU early next year, the hard work of negotiating a trade agreement would begin. Mr Johnson says he would do this by the end of 2020 or leave without one. No-deal is thus still on the table—and a real prospect, since getting a deal in less than a year looks hard. The best estimates suggest that leaving without a deal would make average incomes 8% lower than they would otherwise have been after ten years.
自2017年以来，保守党也变得更加吓人。约翰逊放弃了由特里萨•梅谈判达成的英国退欧协议，并签署了一份更糟糕的协议，实际上是砍掉了北爱尔兰，以便英国可以退出欧盟关税同盟。公众已经对整个惨败感到厌烦，以至于他“完成英国退欧”的承诺赢得了投票。但他做不到。英国明年年初退欧后，将开始艰难的贸易协定谈判。约翰逊表示，他将在2020年底前完成这一目标，否则他将辞职。由于在不到一年的时间内达成协议看起来很困难，因此没有达成协议的可能性仍然存在。最乐观的估计是，如果不达成协议就离开，十年后的平均收入将比不达成协议时低8%。

Brexit is not the only problem with Mr Johnson’s new-look Tories. He has purged moderates and accelerated the shift from an economically and socially liberal party into an economically interventionist and culturally conservative one. Angling for working-class, Leave-voting seats in the north, he has proposed extra state aid, buy-British government procurement and a sketchy tax-and-spending plan that does not add up. Also, he has absorbed the fatal lesson of the Brexit campaign: that there is no penalty for lying or breaking the rules. He promised not to suspend Parliament, then did; he promised not to extend the Brexit talks, then did. This chicanery corrodes trust in democracy. Like Mr Corbyn he has normalised prejudice, by displaying his own and failing to investigate it in his party (both men are thought racist by 30% of voters). For all these reasons this newspaper cannot support the Conservatives.
英国退欧并不是约翰逊先生的新保守党的唯一问题。他清除了温和派，加速了从一个经济和社会自由主义政党向一个经济干涉主义和文化保守主义政党的转变。为了争取北方的工人阶级和有投票权的席位，他提出了额外的国家援助，购买英国政府的采购和一个粗略的税收和支出计划，但这些都是多余的。此外，他还吸取了英国退欧运动的致命教训：说谎或违反规则是没有惩罚的。他承诺不会暂停议会，然后他暂停了；他曾承诺不会延长英国退欧谈判，后来他延长了。这种欺骗行为侵蚀了人们对民主的信任。和科尔宾一样，他通过展示自己的观点，却没有在党内调查(30%的选民认为两人都是种族主义者)中，将偏见正常化。由于所有这些原因，本刊不能支持保守党。