经济学人下载:巴托比职场专栏--疫情将加速人们工作方式的变化(2)

The divide between insiders and outsiders is probably the most significant change. The first group are likely to be protected by their employers, who will pay all or most of their salaries as long as they can afford to. The outsiders, whose ties with firms are looser, may be cast adrift. The divide helps explain a large part of the surge in unemployment claims on both sides of the Atlantic.
内部人士和外部人士之间的差异可能是最重要的变化。第一类人可能会受到雇主的保护，只要他们负担得起，雇主就会支付他们的全部或大部分工资。那些与公司关系较为松散的兼职人员可能会被抛弃。大西洋两岸申请失业救济人数激增的原因在很大程度上可以归结为这种差异。

The insider/outsider split is one of the trends outlined by William Davidow and Michael Malone in “The Autonomous Revolution”, a new book. Permanent employees are an expensive burden, thanks to the associated costs like health care (in America) and pensions (everywhere). Online tools already let employers forecast workloads and schedule workers instantly. The current crisis may prompt firms to embrace these, as they reconsider which full-time workers are essential, and which are not.
内部人士/外部人士的分裂是威廉•戴维杜和迈克尔•马龙在新书《自治革命》中概述的趋势之一。长期雇员是昂贵的负担，这与其相关成本有关，如医疗(在美国)和养老金(在世界各地)。在线工具已经可以让雇主即时预测工作量并安排员工的工作时间。当前的危机可能会促使公司接受这些，因为他们会重新考虑哪些全职员工是必不可少的而哪些不是。

The pandemic will also accelerate the trend towards automation. In some cases companies will increasingly rely on automated processes to fulfil tasks, because some workers may fall ill. In other cases the push may come from outside: more consumers will become used to shopping online, or interacting with websites rather than waiting ages for call centres to answer their queries. Those habits look likely to stick after the pandemic ends, reducing the need for human employees.
疫情还将加速走向自动化的趋势。在某些情况下，公司将越来越依赖自动化流程来完成任务，因为员工可能会生病。在其他情况下，这种推动可能来自外部：更多的消费者将习惯于网上购物，或与网站互动，而不是等待呼叫中心回答他们的问题。在疫情结束后，这些习惯可能会继续存在，从而减少对人工的需求。

A reduction in the supply of secure, full-paid jobs may coincide with an increase in demand for such roles. The crisis will have taught a stark lesson to those who work in the gig economy: they are highly vulnerable. Independence and the ability to manage your own time sound appealing when work is plentiful. In hard times workers will appreciate security, however tiresome the daily commute may be. The spike in unemployment will only increase the desire for stable jobs. That seems likely to keep a downward pressure on wages.
有保障的全薪工作供应的减少可能与对这类工作的需求增加同时出现。这场危机将给那些在零工经济中工作的人一个鲜明的教训：他们非常脆弱。当工作很多时，独立性以及能够自己管理时间听起来很诱人。而在困难时期，员工们会更在意安全，而非每天的通勤有多累。失业率的上升只会增加人们对稳定工作的渴望。这似乎会对工资构成下行压力。

Employees may be used to hearing that “we are all in the same boat”. But this crisis is cementing a class system aboard corporate vessels. The managers have the first-class cabins and core workers get en-suite accommodation but the freelancers and contractors are clinging unsteadily to the lifeboats.
员工们可能习惯于听到“我们都在同一条船上”。但这场危机正在巩固公司船上的等级制度。经理们住头等舱，核心员工住套间，而自由职业者和承包商只能颤颤巍巍地紧紧抓住救生艇。