经济学人下载:也门战争(1)

The war in Yemen

也门战争

Looking for an exit

寻找出口

Saudi Arabia declares a ceasefire, while the Houthi rebels fight on

沙特阿拉伯宣布停火，而胡塞组织叛军则继续作战

Rarely has Saudi Arabia sounded so magnanimous. For five years it has been fighting the Houthis, a group of Shia rebels in Yemen, on behalf of the government they toppled. The war has devastated Yemen's infrastructure and killed more than 100,000 people. But on April 8th Saudi Arabia and its allies promised to lay down their arms for two weeks. The reason for the ceasefire, said a Saudi official, was "to alleviate the suffering of the brotherly Yemeni people and maintain their health and safety". Two days later Yemen, the region's poorest country, announced its first confirmed case of covid-19.

很少听说沙特阿拉伯如此大度。五年来，沙特一直代表其所推翻的政府与也门什叶派胡塞武装组织叛军作战。这场战争摧毁了也门的基础设施，造成10万多人死亡。但4月8日，沙特阿拉伯及其盟国承诺将停火两周。一位沙特官员说，停火的原因是“为了减轻兄弟之邦也门人民的苦难，维护他们的健康与安全”。两天后，也门，这个在该地区最贫穷的国家，宣布出现第一例COVID-19确诊病例。

Cynics doubt that compassion is truly motivating Saudi Arabia, a majority Sunni nation. For years its bombs have hit hospitals, houses and schools in Yemen—often, it seemed, on purpose. Rather, the war is turning and the Saudis are losing heart.

沙特大部分信奉逊尼派伊斯兰教，批评人士怀疑，沙特这么做是否真出于怜悯之心。 多年来，其投下的炸弹袭击了也门的医院、房屋和学校，而这些往往都是故意为之。不如说，战争在转变，令沙特人感到心灰意冷

Despite its vicious air campaign, Saudi Arabia has been unable to dislodge the Houthis from most of Yemen's population centres, including the capital, Sana'a. Its main international ally, the United Arab Emirates, began scaling back its involvement in the war last year. The Saudis themselves are bombing less: their air strikes are down by more than 90% compared with 2015. In recent months they have held secret talks with the Houthis. Gone is the hope of returning Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the exiled Yemeni president, to Sana'a. Now the kingdom's goal is to stop Houthi missile strikes on its own territory. "The Saudis want a way out and are using the coronavirus as a figleaf," says Abdulghani al-Iryani, a Yemeni analyst.

尽管沙特进行过恶毒的空袭，但仍然无法将胡塞武装组织赶出也门大部分人口聚集的中心地区，包括首都萨那。其主要国际盟友阿拉伯联合酋长国去年开始减少参与这场战争，沙特自己也在减少轰炸袭击的次数：与2015年相比，其发起的空袭数量减少了90%以上。近几个月来，他们与胡塞武装组织进行过秘密会谈。流亡也门总统阿布德·拉博·曼苏尔·哈迪（Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi）重返萨那的希望一去不复返，现在沙特的目标是阻止胡塞组织的导弹对本国领土的袭击。“沙特想要一条出路，并将新冠状病毒作为遮羞布，”也门分析师阿卜杜勒加尼·艾里亚尼（Abdulghani al-Iryani）说道。

The Saudi intervention began as a vanity project for Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince, who sought to flex his muscles in the face of rival Iran. But the Houthis stood tough and Shia Iran, sensing an opportunity, increased its support for the rebels. Prince Muhammad is now looking at a quagmire that is diverting resources at a time of plummeting oil revenues. Houthi attacks on the kingdom threaten its reputation for stability. Their missiles have struck oil pipelines and targeted the capital, Riyadh.

沙特的干预行动始于王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Muhammad bin Salman）的一项政绩工程，他试图在对手伊朗面前大展拳脚。但是，胡塞组织立场强硬，什叶派盟友伊朗意识到时机到来，就增加了对叛军的支持。穆罕默德亲王现在面对着，在石油收入暴跌之际转移资源的困境。胡塞组织对沙特的袭击威胁到其局势稳定的声誉，那些导弹袭击了石油管道，还瞄准了首都利雅得。