经济学人下载:也门战争(2)

Saudi Arabia does not want anything to upset its hosting of the g20 summit in November. So Prince Muhammad hopes to disengage and lock the Houthis inside Yemen, much as Israel does with Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, in Gaza.

沙特不希望任何事情破坏其在11月举行的20国集团首脑会议。因此，穆罕默德亲王希望与胡塞组织停止交战，并将其封锁在也门境内，就像以色列对待加沙地带的巴勒斯坦激进组织哈马斯的做法一样。

But the Houthis sense Prince Muhammad's desperation and want a better deal. They rejected the ceasefire, while putting forward their own peace plan. It demands that Saudi Arabia lift its air and sea blockade of Yemen, pay reparations for the damage it has caused (as well as ten years of government salaries) and recognise the Houthis as the legitimate government. If the Saudis do not agree, the Houthis promise "a major escalation inside the kingdom". Analysts think they are planning a ground assault on Najran, a city in southern Saudi Arabia with a largely Shia population (albeit of a different strain from that of the Houthis).

但是胡塞组织感受到了穆罕默德王子的绝望，他想达成一个更好的交易。他们拒绝停火，同时提出了自己的和平计划。胡塞组织要求沙特解除对也门的空中和海上封锁，赔偿其造成的损失（以及10年来政府机构的薪酬），并承认胡塞组织为合法政府。如果沙特不同意，胡塞组织承诺“在沙特国内升级重要的军事进攻”。分析人士认为，他们正计划对沙特南部城市纳吉兰发动地面攻击，该市人口主要是什叶派（不过与胡塞组织的教派不同）。

The Houthis are already pushing deeper into the Yemeni provinces on the border with Saudi Arabia. They have made gains in Jawf and are fighting in the crags above Marib, an oil-and-gas hub. Control of Marib would not only hand the Houthis valuable resources; it would also make it harder for the government and allied tribes to wage war. Government-aligned forces use bases in Marib city to launch air and ground attacks in the north. The city sits on a road linking Saudi Arabia to the Indian Ocean and its anti-Houthi allies in the south. Marib would bring the Houthis closer to the main Saudi crossing at Wadiah, the airport in Seiyun and the border with Oman.

胡塞组织已经深入到与沙特接壤的也门各省，他们在焦夫省取得了进展，并在石油和天然气中心马里布省的峭壁上开火。对马里布省的控制不仅会把这些宝贵的资源交给胡塞组织，还会使政府和联合部落更难发动战争。政府军利用马里布省的基地，在北部地区发动空袭和地面攻击。该城坐落于连接沙特和印度洋，及其南部反胡塞组织盟军的一条公路上。控制马里布省，将使胡塞组织更靠近位于瓦迪亚主要的沙特过境点、塞云机场以及与阿曼的边界。

Mr Hadi has had to move some of his ragtag army from the north to deal with separatists and jihadists in the south. That leaves Marib largely in the hands of Sunni tribes that support Islah, an Islamist movement. Many fiercely oppose the Houthis, fearing they will try to revive the country's ancient Shia imamate. But they also worry that Prince Muhammad might soon withdraw. Some therefore think that they should follow the lead of the tribesmen in Jawf who negotiated with the Houthis and helped them push into the province. Hanging over all of this is the threat of covid-19. The war has knocked out half of Yemen's clinics and hospitals. Over three quarters of its 28m people need some kind of humanitarian aid. An outbreak of cholera last year was one of the world's worst, says the un. An outbreak of covid-19 could be even deadlier.

哈迪不得不从北部调动一群乌合之军，来对付南部的分离主义者和圣战分子。这使马里布省在很大程度上落入支持伊斯兰运动伊斯拉的逊尼派部落手中。许多胡塞组织的坚定反对者，担心他们会试图复兴该国古老的什叶派教长职权。但是，他们也对穆罕默德王子可能很快撤军表示担忧。因此，一些人认为，他们应该跟随焦夫省部落民的领导，这些部落民曾与胡塞组织谈判，并协助他们在该省内推进攻势。最关键的是新冠肺炎构成的威胁，战争已经摧毁了也门一半的诊所和医院。2800万人口中，有超过四分之三的人需要某种人道主义援助。联合国表示，去年爆发的霍乱是全球最严重一次霍乱疫情，而新冠肺炎的爆发则可能更加致命。