经济学人下载:巴托比专栏--判断力问题(1)

Business
商业版块

Bartleby
巴托比专栏

A question of judgment
判断力问题

A quality that is hard to define but important to possess
一种很难定义但是很重要的品质。

The pandemic has required many people to make difficult judgments. Politicians have had to decide which restrictions to impose on citizens’ behaviour and individuals were forced to assess how much personal risk to take. Managers, faced with tough calls like which parts of their operations to close, have not been spared.
疫情需要许多人做出艰难的判断。政治家们必须决定对公民的行为施加哪些限制，而个人则被迫估计要承担多少个人风险。管理者们也未能幸免，他们面临着诸如关闭哪些业务部门这样的艰难抉择。

Good judgment is a quality everyone would like to have. But it is remarkably difficult to define precisely, and many people are not sure whether they personally possess it. Sir Andrew Likierman of the London Business School has spent a long time talking to leaders in a wide range of fields, from business and the army to the law and medicine, in an effort to create a framework for understanding judgment.
每个人都希望拥有良好的判断力这样的品质。但是很难对良好的判断力进行准确定义，很多人也不确定自己是否拥有这种能力。伦敦商学院的安德鲁·利基尔曼爵士花了很长时间与商业、军队、法律和医学等多个领域的领袖交谈，试图建立一个理解判断力的框架。

First he had to define the word. He suggests that judgment is “the combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. And he argues that, thus defined, judgment involves a process—taking in information, deciding whom and what to trust, summarising one’s personal knowledge, checking any prior beliefs or feelings, summarising the available choices and then making the decision. At each stage, decisionmakers must ask themselves questions, such as whether they have the relevant experience and expertise to make their choice, and whether the option they favour is practical.
首先他必须给这个词下个定义。他认为，判断力是“个人素质与相关知识以及经验融合而成的观点和决策。”他认为这样下定义，判断力包含了一个过程——获取信息，决定信任的人和物，总结个人知识，确定优先的信念或感受，总结可用的选择，然后做出决定。在每一个阶段，决策者都必须扪心自问，比如自己是否具备做出选择所需的相关经验和专业知识，以及自己青睐的选择是否切实可行。

Expertise can be useful in making judgments. But it is not the same thing. “Academics have expertise,” Sir Andrew observes. “They don’t necessarily have judgment.” People with judgment know when they are out of their depth in making a decision and typically then seek the advice of someone who has the right background and knowledge.It is, of course, possible to follow all these steps and still make the wrong choice. But Sir Andrew argues that a sensible process improves the chance of getting it right. The temptation is to look at people’s track records when assessing when they have good judgment, but luck may have played a huge part.“While good judgment is important to success,” Sir Andrew cautions, “success is not a signal that there has been good judgment.”
专业知识有助于做出判断。但这并不是一回事。安德鲁爵士评论道，“学者们拥有专业知识，但不一定拥有判断力。”有判断力的人知道自己在做决定时力不从心，然后通常会向有合适背景和知识的人征求建议。当然，即使你遵循了所有的步骤，仍然可能做出错误的选择。但安德鲁爵士认为，一个合理的步骤能够提高做出正确选择的概率。当评估人们是否有良好的判断力时，人们会倾向于看他们过往的表现，但运气可能也起了很大作用。安德鲁爵士提醒到：“虽然良好的判断力对成功至关重要，但成功并不标志着那个人拥有良好的判断力”。