经济学人下载:土耳其的货币动荡(1)

There seemed to be no end to the unusual measures Turkey would take to shore up the lira.
土耳其为支撑里拉而采取的非正常措施似乎没有尽头。

The government had made it prohibitively hard for foreigners to bet against the battered currency.
政府使得外国人想要做空受重创的货币变得异常困难。

By the end of June the central bank had burned through $65bn in foreign reserves to protect it,
截止至六月底，央行已动用650亿美元外汇储备来保护里拉，

in effect pegging it to the dollar for the past couple of months.
实际上，是在过去几个月里让里拉钉住美元。

On August 6th, however, the bank gave up and allowed the lira to float. It promptly sank.
但在8月6日，央行放弃了该策略，并允许里拉浮动。里拉当即暴跌。

The currency fell by more than 3% during the day, reaching a record low.
一天内，里拉货币下跌超过3%，达到历史最低值。

Turkey may now be facing a repeat of the crisis of 2018, when a standoff with America, a credit boom and a bulging current-account deficit
现在土耳其可能正面临着2018年危机的重演，当时土耳其和美国关系陷入僵局，信贷繁荣和膨胀的收支往来帐户赤字

forced the central bank to impose towering interest rates in order to prevent a currency meltdown.
迫使央行提高利率，防止货币危机

Its monetary-policy board meets on August 20th. But the bank is even less independent than it was in 2018.
其货币政策委员会将于8月20日会面。但央行的独立性甚至不如2018年。

Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sacked its previous governor for refusing to slash rates.
土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安解雇了不愿削减利率的前行长。

His successor is highly unlikely to raise them without Mr Erdogan's permission.
没有埃尔多安的允许，他的接任者更不可能提高利率。

Another complication is that the bank's foreign-currency assets are depleted. Gross assets dipped to $90bn in July.
另一个问题是央行的外币资产已经耗尽。七月，其总资产降至900亿美元。

Net assets, which deduct foreign liabilities and borrowing through currency swaps with local banks, stand at -$41bn.
扣除外债以及通过货币互换向本地银行的借款，净资产为负410亿美元。

"They have run out of ammunition," says Ozlem Derici Sengul of Spinn Consulting, an advisory group.
“他们已经弹尽粮绝了，”咨询公司Spinn Consulting的Ozlem Derici Sengul说到。

"If they continue like this, they may have no hard currency left."
“如果他们继续这样下去，他们可能就没剩下什么硬通货了。”

Turkey can still try to restore investors' confidence in its management of the lira and the economy.
土耳其仍然可以尝试恢复投资者对其管理里拉和经济的信心。

But no one is certain it is willing to do so. For now, the government has begun cutting the money supply through the back door.
但没人确定土耳其是否愿意这么做。目前，政府已经开始通过走后门，切断货币供应。

Earlier this year, in an attempt to soften the blow from the covid-19 pandemic, state-run banks had flooded the market with cheap loans.
今年年初，为缓解新冠疫情对经济的冲击，国有银行向市场提供了大量的廉价贷款。