经济学人下载:土耳其的货币动荡(2)

The ensuing credit boom, the biggest in a decade, put renewed pressure on the lira and pushed inflation up.
随之而来的十年内最大的信贷繁荣，这给里拉带来了新的压力，并推高了通货膨胀。

Days after the latest run on the currency, however, the banking regulator relaxed its rules on asset ratios,
但在最近一次货币挤兑后，银行业监管方放松了其对资产比率的规则，

which had required lenders to pump out loans or face heavy fines.
要求贷方大举放贷，否则将面临高额罚款。

The central bank, meanwhile, has reverted to using a baffling system of policy rates, through which it can raise borrowing costs indirectly.
与此同时，央行又开始使用令人困惑的政策利率体系，通过该体系，其可以间接提高借贷成本。

The combination of smoke and mirrors will not do.
障眼法是不行的。

With the central bank's benchmark policy rate at 8.25% and inflation at nearly 12%,
土耳其央行的基准政策利率为8.25%，通货膨胀近12%，

Turkey has one of the lowest real rates among big emerging economies.
是大型新兴经济体中实际利率最低的国家之一。

Since the start of the year, the lira has shed nearly a fifth of its value against the dollar.
自今年年初起，里拉兑美元汇率已下跌近五分之一。

Foreign investors have pulled $11bn from Turkish shares and bonds. Local depositors are running to the greenback for safety.
外国投资者已从土耳其股票和债券中撤出了110亿美元。当地储户纷纷买入美元以寻求安全。

Analysts warn that the central bank's failure to win back some of its credibility with a moderate interest-rate increase now may force a massive one later.
分析人士警告称，央行未能通过适度加息赢回一些信誉，这可能会迫使其之后大举加息。

Even this may not be enough. The right response, says Hakan Kara, a former chief economist at the central bank,
即便这样可能也还不够。央行前首席经济学家Hakan Kara表示，正确的回应

would be to give the bank the freedom to raise the main policy rate.
是要给予银行提高主要政策利率的自由。

State banks must also take their foot off the gas, urges Mr Kara, and the authorities should let the financial system price risks freely.
Kara敦促国有银行，也应放松政策，且当局应该让金融体系自由承担价格风险。

Consistency would also help Turkey win back foreign investors.
一致性也将帮助土耳其重获外国投资者的信心。

One day, regulators are punishing the banks for not handing out cheap loans, complains Gizem Oztok Altinsac, an economist;
总有一天，监管机构会因为银行不发放廉价贷款而惩罚它们，经济学家Gizem Oztok Altinsac抱怨到；

the next, they ask them to turn off the taps.
接下来，他们会要求银行关闭廉价贷款。

The problem is that Mr Erdogan is deaf to all this advice.
问题是埃尔多安对这些建议充耳不闻。

On August 10th he called for rate cuts. "God willing", he said, "they will go down further." God help the lira.
8月10日，他要求利率下调。“天意如此”，他说，“它们会进一步下降的。”愿天助里拉。